This is a 'historic' moment for the UK's economy, says Mohamed El-Erian

요약 보기

영국 금융시장의 급격한 불안은 G7 국가에서 나타나기 어려운 이례적 사건이며, 정책 신뢰 훼손과 시장 취약성을 보여준다. 영국은 지난 6일간 통화 가치 급락과 채권 금리 급등, 정책 신뢰 상실, 중앙은행 개입, IMF 경고가 동시에 나타났다. 이는 통상 개발도상국에서 발생하는 현상이다. 미국은 안전자산 지위 때문에 단기적으로 혜택을 보지만, 강달러와 높은 금리가 세계 경제에는 부담을 준다. 영국 트러스 정부는 성장 촉진 구조개혁과 에너지 위기 안정화는 유지하되, 재원 없는 감세 시점이 전체 정책을 훼손했으므로 감세 계획을 철회해야 한다는 조언이 나왔다. 그렇지 않으면 영란은행이 긴급 금리 인상을 해야 할 가능성이 크다. 이번 개입은 데이터 의존 정책이 아니라 시장 기능 장애와 금융 사고 위험에 대응한 것으로, 인플레이션 대응 방향과 모순되어 통화정책의 일관성 문제를 드러낸다. 중앙은행들은 과도한 완화(QE, 저금리)의 장기화로 자산배분이 왜곡되었고, 출구 전략은 매우 어려워졌다. 중앙은행은 한 발 물러서야 하지만 그 과정 자체가 큰 위험을 수반한다. 미국 연준도 모기지 금리 상승이 실물경제에 미치는 영향을 우려하지만, 인플레이션 때문에 과거처럼 유동성을 쉽게 공급하기 어렵다. 금융 여건의 패러다임 전환을 모두가 인식해야 한다는 결론이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. you're sitting over I'm assuming you're sitting right now over in the UK watching this play out um what it what Joe said you know they're blinking but what does this do what are the knock-on effects that we haven't maybe thought through yet thank you Becky yes I am in the UK and it is amazing that this is a G7 country that over the last six days has experienced disorderly moves in the currency and in bond yields a loss of confidence policy making now direct Central back intervention and um an IMF warning all this normally happens in a developing country it does not happen in the G7 economy so this is historic um it points to the Paradigm shapes that we're going through and the fragility of markets the US is a safe haven so this is this does not mean the U.S will go through this but it means that the U.S is having to navigate um through this in the short term the U.S will benefit from this but it comes at a time when the strong dollar and the yields are also damaging the rest of the world so so it's not a good combination Becky what does this mean for Liz truss I mean they they had the expectation that the markets would take this the markets did not now what so what it should mean is she should keep the two elements of the package that that everybody welcomes almost everybody which is structure reforms to promote economic growth and the stabilization of energy crisis and she shows that we think the timing of these unfunded tax cuts it is that third element that has completely undermined um the first two and that is basically going against the objectives of the government now doing that is really hard and if they don't do that um the bank of England is going to be forced into the next Intervention which will be an emergency rate hike Muhammad what is it the perfect world it is a world where central banks are synchronized and they tell each other what they're they're ready to do do you think this was a surprise to to uh the FED here and is it I've seen two takes already on Twitter one is finally someone's doing the responsible thing in terms of data dependency uh and then I've seen another one said well now we know how firm their resolve was over in the UK they have they have feet of clay I mean how do we view it long term do we want all the do we want the world Central Bankers synchronized in tightening to conquer inflation or do we want you know people to to go their own way based on their own currency or their own circumstances so first of all this has nothing to do with data dependency the data dependency today would have me meant a more hawkish Central Bank not a central bank that puts in liquidity the numbers that came out this morning in the UK showed that um priced at supermarkets the inflation rate is going up so this is not data dependency this is responding to the risk of Market malfunction and real concern about financial accidents this is what this is now it goes counter to what they need to do for inflation so it highlights the inconsistency of monetary policy look Joe you and I have always warned the longer you stay in this La La Land of QE flawed interest rates dislocated markets um funny interventions distorting asset allocation the longer you stay in the harder the exit and what we are seeing is that the exit is really complicated Muhammad I guess the data I was talking about was was the pound in equity markets around the world around the world so that's more of a fed put uh data and and obviously that's not what central Bankers should should respond to but the you see what I'm saying I'm not talking about the inflation data I'm talking about the effects that the tightening is having do you think the FED should take on your account with what's happening seven percent mortgage rates I mean maybe they need to look around well if they worried about mortgage rate it's because they're worried about the impact on real economy um what they cannot do because of inflation is provide an in in the money good they just caught um that those days are gone I think all of us have to recognize that we are going through a major paradigm shift in financial conditions um central banks have to step back they overdid they overdid it they were late in recognizing what they had triggered and now they need to step back the problem is stepping back is very risky um and the last thing the FED wants is to find itself in this major inconsistency that the bank of England now finds itself in it was about to do QT it announced that it would hike even more aggressively in on on November 3rd and now it's injecting liquidity