저자: DanIves · 외국인
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애플은 여전히 매수 기회라는 결론이다. 아이폰 14 기본 모델 생산 확대 중단 보도는 부정적으로 해석할 필요가 없다고 본다. 프로 모델 비중이 85~90%로 작년 65%보다 크게 높아져 ASP(평균판매단가)와 매출을 떠받친다고 주장한다. 프로 모델 판매는 작년 대비 8~10% 높다고 언급했다. 애플 목표가는 220달러이며, 투자의견은 아웃퍼폼이다. 기업용 클라우드 등 마이크로소프트 관련 대비 애플의 성장 모멘텀을 강조한다. 서비스 사업은 연 1000억 달러 규모로 중저 두 자릿수 성장 중이며, 과거 3000억 달러 수준의 가치를 인정받던 것과 비교하면 현재 밸류에이션이 낮다고 본다. 서비스 부문만 따로 평가하면 1.3~1.5조 달러 가치가 있다는 SOTP 관점을 제시했다. 중국 시장 성장 스토리는 과소평가되어 있다고 주장한다. 반대로 진행자들은 애플이 여러 밸류에이션 지표에서 5년·10년 중간값보다 비싸고, S&P500 대비 높은 프리미엄을 유지하는 점을 지적했다. 이 밸류에이션을 고려하면 프리미엄 아이폰이 블록버스터가 아닐 경우 하락 리스크가 상승 가능성보다 크다는 우려를 제기했다. 다른 대형 기술주인 마이크로소프트가 크게 하락한 점도 언급되었으며, 애플 역시 시장의 희생양이 될 수 있다는 질문이 나왔다.
다듬은 글
support the company no longer plans to ramp up production of its new iPhone joining us now is wed Bush analyst Dan Ives he has an outperformed rating on Apple 220 dollars is the price Target Josh Brown is still with me uh what do you make of this report true not what does it mean I mean I think you know I know we've talked about it with you iPhone Pro the mix is heavy 85 90 and the year ago that was 65 so I think a lot of this is really more glass half empty in terms of what's happening on iPhone 14 base model the streets focused on the pro the pro continues to be I believe eight to ten percent higher than a year ago and that's why I believe you know this was an opportunity to buy this stock I still think that they beat numbers uh despite some of these reports but I mean if they're not um allegedly going to increase production it sort of flies in the face does it not of a belief by you and others that there's going to be this super refresh cycle all through the system because of these new models Pro or base model first glance and you saw the reaction last night in terms of what this news was but as a handheld investors through it I think when you go through the math the mix shift on Pro is jaw dropping or maybe like I said 85 to 90 that's significant for asps and I think production what Apple's essentially doing is swapping to more Pro Models before they overall increase production the base no doubt it's been underwhelming but I believe the street starts to understand the message it's all about the pro that's the key for asps and revenues going forward which is why I thought this report in my opinion sort of a glass half empty rather than telling the whole story why should I believe that the the so-called last General standing if you want to put it that way in terms of these Mega cap tech stocks right Microsoft has gotten hammered we know about some of the other ones too why should I believe that Apple its moment is about to happen on the battlefield it's going to get taken out it's just a matter of when and maybe these are the first steps sure and I think it was viewed okay now The Golden Child Apple now did they get thrown out in another sort of victim of the market I mean Scott would I just continue to point to is fundamentally what's happening with our checks I mean Enterprise Cloud store with Microsoft there's still a third of the way through that and I think that's one overly negative in terms of whisper expectations from Microsoft going into next year multiple's already contracted significantly and then I look at the name Mike Apple it comes down to 240 million iPhone time I've been upgrading three and a half years that's going to continue to flow through and I think also the China story continues to be underestimated in terms of the valuation here and that's why I believe this continues to sort of be Rock Gibraltar poison Tech despite obviously a dark macro hey Dan I look at every metric that you would follow apple on and it is more expensive than the median over the last five and ten years so just take an a median uh trailing 12 month on anything you want Enterprise Value to ebitda uh price to free cash flow price sales price earnings it's not only not a out not not only is it outperforming the s p still this year minus 15 versus minus 21 but it's held its overvaluation relative to all of the other Mega cap stocks so you know is is that Outlook not truly in this valuation for me and I'm a shareholder it really does seem to Scott's point that the risk is to the downside not the upside at this moment in time especially if we think this isn't a blockbuster phone sure and I I think when you put those matters together totally understand the point I think a lot of investors are there I think where you know where we differ in terms of our view that this has basically become going forward it's just some of the parts in terms on the services business the valuation you have to give a hundred billion dollar annual business growing in the low to mid teens versus what I would say is called the last three years prior to that the ultimate Services business was valued 300 billion I believe that's worth 1.3 to 1.5 trillion so that's really our view to some of the parts and overall PE misses the underlying growth that's happened in Cupertino that's fine but that that doesn't necessarily justify the PE being at 24 or 25 times when the overall multiple of the market itself is is coming down yeah and Scott to that point I've been like when I look at the growth of Apple relative to which they just say broader SNP when I could look at Services what I believe is a massive pen of Demand on the iPhone as well as just more and more products and more and more penetration coming forward I could argue that Apple's growth could be double in terms of what a lot of other Tech names ultimately their growth prospects especially in terms of large gap are going forward so that's why I just think Street PE to look at Apple I think misses the underlying growth story and that's sort of been our view with Microsoft as well and some of the cyber security names like Palo Alto all right the table pounder as you've called it all right Dan Ives thank you
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