저자: FarukTurgut · 외국인
요약 보기
금·은 가격은 아직 상승 추세이며 단기적으로 2015달러 저항 이후 조정 가능성이 있다는 결론. 미국 연준(FED) 대선 전 마지막 회의에서 통화 확장(양적완화) 관련 발표가 나오면 금·은 시장이 크게 움직일 수 있다고 봄. 단순 금리 동결이나 인플레이션 언급은 이미 반영된 내용이라 큰 서프라이즈는 아니라는 입장. JP모건이 금·은 하락 추세를 언급한 기술적 분석 리포트에 대해서는 조작 의도가 있다고 보며 크게 신경 쓸 필요 없다고 주장. 중앙은행이 통화 확장을 계속할 것이라고 발언한 점을 강조하고, 이런 환경에서 금·은 가치가 다른 자산 대비 상승할 것이라고 봄. 대선 전후 정치적 불확실성과 백신 뉴스가 원자재 시장에 영향을 줄 수 있다고 언급. 일부 커뮤니티에서 말하는 연말 금 5000~8000달러 전망은 꿈을 파는 것이라며 비판. 금 기술적 분석: 온스당 2015달러가 저항선이며 돌파가 어려울 것으로 봄. 1906달러 지지선, 1840달러 이탈 시 상승 추세 붕괴. 그램당 473리라에서 475리라 도달 예상, 487리라 돌파 시 510~520리라 가능성. 은 기술적 분석: 온스당 26달러가 강한 지지, 24달러가 더 강한 지지. 29달러 상향 돌파 시 신고가 가능성. 그램당 53.6리라 저항을 9월 이후 처음 상향 돌파했으며, 16~15리라 조정 시 매수 기회 가능. 6리라 이탈 전까지 약세 신호로 보지 않음, 5.40리라 이탈 시 상승 추세 붕괴로 봄. 전체적으로 금·은 상승 추세 유지를 전제로 하되, 단기 매도 압력과 조정 가능성을 함께 제시. 실제 투자 판단 시 연준 발표와 달러-리라 환율 등 외부 변수를 주의 깊게 볼 것을 권고.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, I'm Faruk Turgut, and I'm back with a new video on gold and silver technical and fundamental analysis. Today, the FED will announce the decisions from its final meetings before the US presidential elections, under the heading of financial policies. Additionally, JP Morgan has made a statement regarding a downward trend in the gold and silver markets.
I will analyze this news, along with global market events, and provide you with charts showing support and resistance points for gold and silver per gram (V10 price ranges). I will answer your questions about what positions you should take in the coming days regarding gold and silver. This will be a short and concise video, analyzing important and critical points along with the news.
I will show this video to you all at home. Before we begin, new viewers, don't forget to subscribe to the channel! Now, first of all, before that critical moment, what might they do? What decisions might they announce? I want to comment on these. I can say that there's no need to expect a huge surprise from the FED.
Even if they announce something about keeping interest rates stable or giving a target for inflation, the market is already aware of this. It won't be a surprise, but the real surprise, the real expectation, is that if they announce a policy related to monetary expansion, or give a price for it, or a specific amount, then the gold and silver markets will be very lively.
Because this meeting will be the last meeting before the US presidential election on November 3rd, and they might release an announcement around nine o'clock today. This announcement, to be made by Jumpol, along with a press conference, will actually answer the questions the markets are expecting, mostly related to inflation and other well-known things.
I won't go into critical levels, but as I said, they might mention Instagram data. But the real movement in gold and silver will be if they present a process related to monetary expansion and talk about a planned and programmed process. I think this could be very important for both gold and silver. Before moving on to this news, I find this news important: Robertson has made some very important statements about the gold and silver markets.
He's an investor I follow closely, and he has some great comments. I want to comment on that. But before I get to that comment, before I get to this news, I want to comment on Morgan. I haven't shown you this for a while, it just occurred to me that Morgan said gold could fall and is in a downtrend, based on that Morgan technical analysis report.
And I want to give you this news: there's absolutely nothing to fear. Morgan always does this, manipulating investor behavior, and we can see this in their previous news and statements in the market. I don't take it very seriously; you can interpret it however you like. But I don't take Recep Morgan's statements seriously, thinking there's another purpose and calculation behind them.
You know, recently Morgan caused manipulative movements in the USD/TRY exchange rate, and we saw this in their technical analysis report. Now there's a more important issue, which I'll briefly touch upon before moving on to gold and silver pricing. Regarding Jemerson's statements, I really like this guy.
Why? Because I find him very sincere, and despite being a big investor and a fiat finance expert, he makes statements as if he's one of the people, unlike the manipulative statements made by Recep Morgan. It's nice to see his perspective reflected in the news and translations. Now, about these statements...
I'll talk about the Central Bank's statement regarding its treasuries, and they said that monetary expansion will continue. Yes, we also say that monetary expansion will continue. They are currently printing a lot of money and developing a new theory. Although we may not see the negative effects of this theory in the near future, we will see them in terms of economic and financial data within a few years.
Yes, in such an environment, when compared to other assets, the value of gold and silver is increasing while the value of other assets is decreasing. This was the most important and sincere statement I found. I really liked this. It's a very good sentence. I'm telling the other villages in the world, we should buy gold and silver.
Why should we buy it? Academics and politicians say don't do it, but I say this because we are still in an upward trend regarding gold, we still have a really serious expectation of an increase. Along with this, we investors are sharing these expectations with you. There was also a statement that said you would be stingy.
Another important statement was about the vaccine news. I've mentioned this in other videos as well. Friends, I want you to pay attention to this point regarding the vaccine. First, what we need to pay attention to, and what is particularly important for commodity markets like gold and silver, is the US elections.
These elections are progressing through such critical processes that, in order to win the election, moves could be made that could seriously disrupt the financial markets. One comment suggests that things could get worse in the next 1-2 years, and that there could be a significant bubble in the pricing of gold and silver.
To summarize, I see this from people in our community who produce Turkish content and analysis, saying things like, "By the end of the year, it will be $5000, $8000, a combination of $7000 or $8000 per ounce of gold." There's no need to sell dreams; gold and silver will continue to generate profits consistently if they maintain certain levels.
However, if you think it will suddenly reach $10,000 by the end of next year, yes, it could make you a significant amount of money, but the profitability won't be sustainable. There are often upheavals in the laws, so let's just say don't believe this. Let me get straight to my goals. After all this explanation, I've interpreted the news from a financial perspective.
Of course, you're curious about my technical interpretations. Now, regarding gold, as I said, we can see some movement following the announcements made after all the meetings. The biggest reason for that movement is the Joe Biden news. Look, I'm even telling you the news beforehand. What is the news?
It's about whether or not there will be continued expansion in monetary policy. With this, we can see movements. That movement is already expected in the near future. I expect 2015 levels, and gold could rise to $2015 per ounce, but it's really very difficult to surpass those levels. Especially with the uncertainty surrounding the elections and the interim policy in the world, it's very difficult to surpass these levels.
Even if it reaches $2015, there might be a sell-off. I'm giving you this news. But if it reaches 2015 levels and a very positive statement comes from the ETF, then monetary policy... Of course, this will have a positive impact on the silver market, so there's a possibility it will surpass the $2015 level, but expectations and continued statements will remain uncertain.
Even if it reaches the $2015 level, there will be selling pressure from there, and it will continue in these ranges. Now, the most dangerous area is the Oğuz phase, and there is significant support at the $1906 level. Even if it falls below that, the upward trend will continue. When will this upward trend be broken?
It will be broken if it falls below the $1840 level. We are very far from there, but the upward trend is still continuing, and it wants to rise a little more, so I can tell you what the direction is for the price of gold per ounce. Now, if we look at the gram price, it is trading at 473 lira per gram.
I can tell you that this has been the case for both gold and silver. I already mentioned this in previous videos because there is a situation related to the dollar-TL exchange rate with 1 TL. I should also mention that the gram price is still moving upwards, trading at 473 lira, and it's expected to reach 475 lira.
It has resistance and wants to move upwards within the channel, sticking to the upper channel. Where is it? The 482 lira level. Where would the best rise be? I always say this: if you can seriously break above 487 lira, if you can break above that level, friends, there is a possibility of settling in the 510-520 band, even up to the 500 band.
So, peaks can be eliminated again. And the FED meeting is important. Don't just dismiss it as "the same old fuss." The policies to be announced are market-guiding, and you can also form an opinion with them. That 's why I'm explaining it along with the news. I would advise you to closely follow the announcements that may come regarding monetary policy.
Now, looking at the price of silver, it is trading at the 27-33 or 36 dollar level. 26 dollars is a very strong support. Even if it falls below that, I can tell you that the 24 dollar level is an even stronger support. When you look at the indicators, it should be below its current level, and if any buy signal comes with the constitutional article indicators...
On the silver side, especially in the Oğuz phase, the price could quickly advance towards $29. Of course, if the gold and silver markets revive with positive news, it could surpass the $29 level and set a new record. I'm saying the same thing about silver; there's no question of any upward trend being broken.
The trend is still upward, as long as the news in the market supports it. I'm already telling you about this in an up-to-date way. Just follow me, and I won't leave you uninformed. Now, what level is the price of silver per gram at? It 's trading at 60/6. Staying strong above 53/6 is really important.
At a resistance level like 53/6, look, for about a month? Yes, about a month. I think yes, for about a month, friends, it had strongly broken above 53/6. Once it broke above 53/6, there was a very rapid sell-off. Yes, that was at the beginning of September. Yes, at the beginning of September, it has broken above the 53/6 resistance again for the first time recently.
Even if it goes down, which I think is the case... I think it would be better if it dropped to around 16-15 lira and touched those levels. At least we would get confirmation of the rise, from a technical perspective. Of course, from a technical perspective, 06.15 could create a buying opportunity. As long as it doesn't fall below 6 lira, we shouldn't perceive any bearish signals or panic situations.
Even 6 lira is actually close, but 6 lira is a somewhat optimistic figure. If we're talking about more serious numbers, when will the rising trend be broken? Let's say it falls below 5.40 in the silver market. I've tried to evaluate both the silver and gold markets, along with global news and current events, and give you my opinion.
I hope you like this kind of content. Your support is very important to me. Don't forget to like the video and leave a thank you in the comments. Seeing that motivates me a lot. Let's say it's my goal. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel. I will continue to produce videos and inform you about the financial markets. Have a good day and good work everyone.
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