🔴 TRUST ME! Sell EVERYTHING And Buy Gold NOW! - Marc Faber

요약 보기

현재 경제는 2018-2019년 수준을 회복하지 못했고 물가는 30~40% 높다. 자산 가격 상승 여력이 제한되고 주식은 실질 기준 하락 위험이 크다. 미국 빅테크(매그니피센트7)가 50~70% 폭락하고 자금이 타 시장으로 이동할 가능성을 언급. 관세는 증시에 부정적이며 금은 구매력 방어 목적으로 보유하나 추가 대량 매수는 하지 않음. 금 보유 선호 확산 가능성을 제시.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I believe a lot of people today who have wealth they know that something is wrong in the financial system they know it's not sustainable they know it's going to collapse one day they just don't know when so these people they say to themselves okay the financial system collapses I want to have something save you know it's a store of value that is the meaning of store of value then they buy a ton of gold well I mean the global economy has definitely recovered from the covid lows but if you look at the world in general then the peak of economic activity must have been sometimes in 2018 2019 then we had the covid slump and the recovery but the recovery never came quite to the level of activity in 2018 2019 now I'm talking here about the economy price adjusted because whatever statistics we look at we have to take into account that today the price level is approximately 30 to 40% higher than it was in 2018 2019 I mean Co is is a massive scam to create inflation and to to increase the wealth of uh the richest people and impoverish the middle class and the lower classes because their incomes went up but the incomes went up less than the cost of living I mean I I find it very difficult to encounter anyone in the world among the middle class people who can tell me honestly look my life today is significantly better than in the Years 2015 2018 most people will tell you I was we had to cut down on some expenditures well in Thailand uh interest rates for desperate borrowers I mean borrowers that will not obtain credit from a bank and most people will not obtain credit from a bank they pay 10 to 20% interest a month not a year a month and you look surprised well around the world there this an industry that is thriving because people are desperate they need if someone get sick in the family they have to borrow money on short term then they have these debts and usually it's impossible to get out of her debt at 10% a month you just can't make it look economics is a very bizarre science or is not a science it's sort of a Hocus Pocus it's well established that free trade to say is very favorable for economic grow growth and for the prosperity of people I mean let let's say you have a country like Italy they produce olives and wines why should they produce you know high tech things uh and you have a country like China they have cheap labor and the well educated labor force and scientists in quantities that none of the European countries or the US can supply so these countries they can supply Goods at competitive advantages to other countries so why should you not buy from these countries that can produce something cheaper than you can why not now does it have an impact on your industry yes possibly but it frees your industries to focus on things where you would have a competitive Advantage say the US uh one sector of the economy that has clearly miles of advantages is agriculture because it's so productive I'm not saying it's very healthy it's very productive so trade I think is really very essential to uh global economic growth and if you cut it the empirical experience is lik in the Great Depression they introduced tariffs and it prolonged the depression now I focus as an investment advisor I focus always on how do markets react to news say clearly the stock market doesn't like tariffs no and I've written already in November the trump top because I think the stock market is about to make or has made a major major high from where it will not recover for a very long time but I have to CL clar or classify this statement the stock market may make a new high in nominal terms but not in inflated inflation adjusted terms say the inflation is 20% between now and 26 end of 26 the stock market only goes up by 10% then we've lost in real terms 10% it's still worth something but the puring power of money is continuously going down there's no question about this yes now can we experience a a period of deflation like in the depression in the 30s we had deflation this is a possibility and especially you know the the inflation term is misunderstood when houses go up people call this a booming uh housing market when stock go up they say it's a rise in stock prices but when the Housewives go shopping in a supermarket and the prices go up a lot then she calls it inflation well it's a bull market in in food prices it's the same so inflation is actually an increase in the quantity of money now the money flows into the economic system unevenly it's not that then prices all of the place increase evenly yes no they go up like last year Coco went up like a rocket no in 2023 2024 coffee went up like ballistic missile yeah and so it's very irregular and the he sort of has to jump from one ship to another in his Investments to make to optimize the returns I don't believe in this return optimization I think you know people lose and they win and so forth but asset prices tend to go up now there's a point at which asset prices no longer go up this was reached already before in say 68 to 19717 to then afterward asset prices went down for a long time or Japan it was reached in 89 AF real estate and stocks went down for a long time and I think we're here at the juncture where asset prices no longer go up a lot I mean home prices they cannot go up all that much because the affordability is so low you understand you can have house pric at the sky but you need someone to buy it and most people can't afford them I think this is a very good question because the the question relates to the following if you have a market and there's a heavy concentration of money into a few into a few stocks say in 73 the nifty50 stocks that included stocks like Sears JC penic Xerox Polaroid most of these companies went out of business actually and then when they go down they usually drag down everything like after 2000 when the NASDAQ went down it draged down everything for two years yeah but some things didn't go down a lot like resource stocks and gold miners and so but nevertheless they went down and then you have the other model which is Japan after 89 Japan went down and other Markets started to sore because the money flowed out of Japan into other markets and I'm still debating whether this will be the case but I could imagine that the US the Magnificent Seven tumble by 50 to 70% and the money flows into other sectors of the market probably not in the US because this year you look at the European stock markets they're up say between 15 and 18% and the US the SNP is flat and the nasak is down the fact is I've been uh recommending and holding gold physical for at least uh say 40 years yeah and I keep on buying regardless of the price but I'm not taking additional major positions at the present time because if I look at the price level in the 50s and if I look at the price level here then gold has been a very good investment to protect my purchasing power in other words gold is not undervalued but if I look at the financial system in the world and you look at all the money that is floating around and the quantity of billionaires that you have in the world then you and the quantity of central banks then you have to ask yourself the question we have the quantity of money we call this monetary Mass yeah and in the world it's increased by this much say whatever and then you have the quantity of gold and it was maybe 1980 this and now it's this so per unit of gold in the world say per ounce the quantity of money has expanded dramatically and I have a lot to do with say professionally not when I go out at night but when I'm working I have a lot to do with wealthy people that need to preserve their wealth say someone has $100 million I know very few people who would have more than $10 million in gold most of the people they say ah I hold gold what they mean is they own two kilos of gold or you know 100 ounces or something like this but people who own or have 30% of the Assets in Gold this is a tiny number of people and I believe and this is also reflected in the performance of gold physical gold and gold shares I believe a lot of people today who have wealth they know that something is wrong in the financial system they know it's not sustainable they know it's going to collapse one day they just don't know when so these people they say to themselves okay the financial system collapses I want to have something save you know it's a store of value that is the meaning of store of value then they buy a ton of gold absolutely absolutely and the central banks do the same they are faced with US dollar that is likely to go down one day meaningfully or a faced with a a system where the US has repeatedly you know Frozen the assets of foreign countries not once repeatedly yes then they say to thems well we want something safe so they buy gold I mean I I really believe when the gold shortage Theory will you know become more popular that gold could have a another move up but I'm not holding gold because I think that the price will go up a lot I'm holding because it's safe but there is a risk is the F governments you know they they can one day say oh it's unfair that some people who held gold have become so rich and others suffered so we take it away or we declare it as illegal they've done it before