저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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베스트바이(BBY)에 대해 강한 긍정 전망을 펼친 영상이다. 핵심 결론: 베스트바이는 12월 15일 발표될 실적에서 예상보다 좋은 분기 실적을 낼 것이며, 주가 상승 여지가 크다고 주장한다. 현장 조사: 지역 매장을 직접 방문해 매장 면적의 22%가 스마트폰·전자책·넷북·대형 LCD TV·애플 제품·윈도우7 등에 할애된 것을 확인했고, 평판 TV 47종을 월마트 11종과 비교했다. 평균 가격은 베스트바이 986달러, 월마트 1,159달러로 베스트바이가 더 저렴하다고 언급했다. 수요 근거: 브라이언 던 CEO는 블랙프라이데이 고객 수가 작년보다 크게 늘었고 재고도 작년보다 빠듯하다고 밝혔다. 추수감사절 주말 크리스마스 전자제품 판매의 약 20%가 발생했으며, UBS 리서치에 따르면 블랙프라이데이 TV 구매자의 25%가 베스트바이에서 구매했다. 애널리스트 의견: 게리 발터(Credit Suisse 소속으로 소개)는 베스트바이에 대한 공매도 세력을 비판하는 긍정적 리서치를 냈다. 그는 MAP(최소광고가격) 정책 덕분에 오프라인 매장이 온라인 대비 할인가를 매장 내에서 광고할 수 있어 유리하다고 분석했다. 밸류에이션: 주가 약 52달러, 2011년 예상 PER 약 13.6배, 장기 성장률 12.4%를 근거로 '싸다'고 평가했다. 스테이플스·타겟·콜스·JC페니보다도 저평가라고 주장했다. 리스크/조건: 시장이 소비자 지갑 열림을 믿지 않고 있다는 점, 숏 세력(베어)의 존재가 언급됐다. 다만 이는 역으로 상승 시 숏 커버 랠리를 유발할 것이라는 논리다. 출연자 전망: 크레이머는 실적 발표 전 매수를 권하며, 이번 분기가 베스트바이를 금융위기 이전 영광으로 되돌릴 분기가 될 것이라고 강하게 낙관했다.
다듬은 글
retailer too the question then is who has the most of all these things and the answer is Elementary my dear Watson I think it's best by BBY for all you home Gamers and it reports write this down December 15th and I think it will deliver yes indeed as I shop at Best Buy a super duper I love you you love me upside surprise something that we know will drive this stock sky All Aboard bye bye by now we worked backwards on this on this one uh really less Arthur C and Doyle and and more and gell and po I call this a tale of radiation and in a completely non-scientific way we went to a local Best Buy under and found that 20 I know like they won't recognize me because I'm so big I didn't go someone else did did we found that 22% of the store's total square footage 22% is devoted to smartphones e-readers netbooks big screen flat panel LCD TVs Apple products copies of Windows 7 and hey why not throw this in Call Of Duty Modern Warfare to total death to everyone I think that's what they call it anyway that's sell them well although I know they cut the price doesn't matter they had 47 different sets can we have we actually counted this stuff 47 different sets of flat panel TVs versus just 11 at Walmart average price $986 48 cheap deer than Walmart's average price at least according to the research I read of 1,159 that's right this Best Buy beat Walmart on Price Less anecdotally we know the Best Buy had great Black Friday traffic with Brian Dunn the CEO saying that the crowds were quote materially big than last year on top of that he added that inventories are leaner than they were at the same time last year so Best Buy shouldn't have to do that deep discounting merchandising that I hate going into Christmas especially not with this level of demand man around 20% of all Christmas electronic sales a car over Thanksgiving weekend can you believe that so the fact that 25% of the consumers who bought a TV on Black Friday did so a Best Buy that's UBS research I it's downright encouraging plus you know we've been pushing the mobile internet tsunami endlessly including in my new book getting back to even did I mention that which I will sign for you tomorrow night at the 92nd Street Y in Manhattan after the show we told you about all the companies that make what goes into a smartphone and think that they're set to have huge multi-year moves well you know what the same should go for best by the company at selling the darn things all right let's talk mano a mano there's this guy his name is Gary Balter he's from credit s he's what I call the ax in the retail space that means he's the animal who everyone on the street knows and respects and has an edge on everybody Gary's brilliant he's been my friend for years gave me Blockbuster from start to finish that stock was a great stock from 1985 when the video retail chain was part of some company called cook data services to 19 94 hey how'd I do with balter's pick he gave me a 2,95 per gate 2,95 per gate Gary balter's work when he was a young analy at Goldman Sachs was unbeli 2,95 per.
when Balter talks I listen you can't bet against this guy so when Boulder Gets behind Best Buy where he recently in a great piece of research mocked the Bears quote who seemed to feed off the stock as if it were their lifeblood then I think the stock must be bought I like it consumption he's taking the shorts head on that level of confidence is rarely seen on Wall Street and is never seen from this guy unless he's going to be right in fact bal's done the single best analysis I've about how brick and mortar retailers are striking back against their online competitors in conjunction with Samsung Sony and Panasonic it's all over the map as in map minimum advertised pricing what's map I got to teach you all the stuff it's where the suppliers and gadgets don't allow online retailers to reveal the discounted price of the merchandise until you get to the checkout hey this is brilliant great for Best Buy because they can advertise their discounted prices in the aisle but online retailers can't in your shopping cart remember you go to shopping cart and then you go to the checkout online this is how bricks and mortar stores like Best Buy can thrive in a world where Amazon's kicking butt and taking names MP can you believe this guy came up with that analysis he's got hense Best Buy less than a point off it's 52 we High I still don't think it's expensive 13.6 time 2,000 and 11 earnings but with a 12.4% long-term growth rate that's cheap it's cheaper than anything cheaper than Staples cheaper than Target cheaper than coals we get the fat pants cheaper than JC Penny the market still doesn't believe the consumer is opening her wallet for this stuff not true the consumer wants gadgets best byass of devices that are in demand this holiday season and probably beyond what did the staff pick up no that's a sharper engine image xatu massage pillow anyway H it's taken share and I think it will deliver a better than expected quarter write this down again the 15th of course this is ultimately just a simple story about how excited people get when same store sales numbers turn positive after a prolong period of downturn and it looks like Best Buy numbers will be Jazz up the investment Community the Bears will scream and ultimately cover their positions as they get scared of the Thundering Herd of buyers let me ask you a question does bare meat taste good in the woods yeah but it's totally Savory sa Savory in your portfolio delish Chinese paint the bottom line it's a Gadget Christmas and best Buy has got the goods if I were you I would buy this one ahead of the quarter as I think it will be the quarter that restores Best Buy to its former pre-recession glory Todd in Washington Todd
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