저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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하워드 막스는 시장 예측보다 현재 사이클 위치 파악이 중요하다고 강조한다. 2005-06년 부실 딜이 쏟아지던 시기를 과열 신호로 보고 신중했고, 2008년 위기 때는 준비된 자금으로 저가 매수했다. 닷컴 버블 당시 '새로운 것이 등장했다'는 내러티브가 고평가를 정당화했다고 경고하며, 현재는 중간 수준의 밸류에이션이고 과열은 아니라고 본다. 강조점은 가격 대비 투자, 감정 통제, 겸손, 2차 사고다.
다듬은 글
welcome to hasps finance today we're looking at Howard Mark investing wisdom a drawing from a lecture he gave Marx is the co-chairman of oak tree capital A firm known for his success in distress debt and other alternative Investments he's also renowned for his insightful memos on markets and investing which have a dedicated following in this lecture Mark shared valuable insights on Market Cycles risk management and the importance of contrarian thinking one of the key takeaways from Mark's lecture is this instead of trying to predict the future which is practically impossible focus on understanding where we are in the current market cycle Marx uses this analogy of taking the Market's temperature you want to figure out if the market is overly heated with optimism or frigid with pessimism because ideally you want to buy when everyone else is pessimistic and sell when they're overly optimistic and Marx has some pretty incredible stories about how he's applied this principle in real life for instance back in 2005 and 2006 he noticed a ton of what he call crap deals getting funded he'd walk into his partner Bruce's office and show him an article saying look at this terrible deal that got funded if companies can raise money on this basis the market is clearly out of whack think about it the market is supposed to be the ultimate disciplinarian only allowing good solid companies to raise Capital but when anyone can raise money for anything that's a massive red flag and that's exactly what Marx was seeing back then this cautious approach really paid off for oak tree during the 2008 financial crisis when most people were panicking and selling Oak Tree on the other hand had a reserve fund and was prepared to buy marks and his partner Bruce had a simple but effective analysis either the entire Financial system was going to collapse in which case their Investments wouldn't matter anyway or it would recover and they absolutely need to be buying during the downturn they saw the crisis as one of the biggest buying opportunities ever not just because prices were low but because they could deploy huge amounts of capital while everyone else was Frozen with fear now Marx is also known for his skepticism about predictions he'll admit he's made some accurate calls in the past but he credits that to focusing on the rare moments when market prices are at extreme highs or lows he Compares it to assessing the probability of a decline in the next 6 months at extreme highs you might say there's a 95% chance of a decline but you'd never say anything is 100% certain at more moderate levels the probability might be 75% or even 55% when prices are closer to a company's intrinsic value Marx even quotes John Maynard KES markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent meaning if you bet heavily on an overpriced Market crashing tomorrow you could lose everything because those inflated prices could stick around for a long time what Marx is saying is that an overpriced market and a market that's about to crash are not the same thing and this leads into the idea of bulletproofing your portfolio essentially structuring your Investments to survive even when the market is being totally irrational because you never know how long that irrationality will last another fascinating Point Marx makes it's about the tech bubble of the late 1990s in January 2000 he wrote a memo called bubble.com that became his first big hit he hadn't gotten much response to his memos in the previous 10 years but this one really struck a chord in the memo he highlighted how Bubbles are often fueled by narratives that claims something new is happening something the traditional metrics in history can't account for in the late '90s that something new was the internet people were saying the internet will change the world so any web company is worth an infinite amount of money H and you know what the internet did changed the world but most of those companies went bust because they weren't actually making money they have flawed business models focus on things like website traffic instead of profits Mark says you always need something new to create these narratives and justify Skyhigh valuations back then it was the internet today it could be spaxs sauce companies or even Bitcoin the lesson here is that new doesn't automatically equal profitable and valuations always matter Marx actually learned this lesson firsthand while investing in high yield bonds essentially lending money to companies considered the riskiest in America by reading agencies what was his biggest takeaway it's not what you buy it's what you pay H he firmly believes that success in investing comes from buying things well regardless of their perceived quality in his first book Marx includes a poor man's almanac for investing it's basically a checklist to help assess Market sentiment some of the questions include do IPOs have all the power are lenders negotiating terms of funds are lenders eager or hesitant is capital abundant or scarce he even jokes that if you're super popular at a cocktail party that's a sign that things might be too euphoric when sentiment is extremely positive it's probably a good time to be a bit more cautious with your Investments so where are we now Mark says we're in moderate territory not a full-blown bubble valuations have been fairly reasonable when compared to interest rates but those interest rates couldn't stay as low as they were forever which makes valuations a bit more vulnerable he believes the events of the past 6 months months have tempered some of the excess of optimism and brought things back down to earth however it's essential to remember that nothing is certain in the market and we can see irrational Behavior return at any time now another critical aspect of investing that Marx emphasizes is managing emotions he points out that most people tend to buy more when the market is going up and sell when it's going down but this is the opposite of what we should be doing our emotions are our enemies when it comes to investing because they often lead us to make the wrong decisions at the wrong long time Marx tells a great story about a colleague who came to him during the market turmoil of 1998 convinced the entire Financial system was about to collapse Mark response great thanks for sharing that now go back to your desk and do your job or why he emphasizes that a true hero isn't someone who's Fearless but someone who's terrified but does their Duty anyway the same applies to investing you have to be able to function even when you're afraid and that's not easy because the influences that affect the crowd and cause irrational Behavior are Universal we all feel them Marx quotes David Swinson who managed the Yale Endowment for 35 years successful investing requires the adoption of uncomfortably idiosyncratic positions unquote in other words to outperform the market you need to deviate from the crowd hold different positions and have the courage to stick with those positions even when it feels uncomfortable and this brings us to Marx's idea of Daring to be different he believes this is absolutely essential to being a great investor everyone wants to be great but in investing being great means being willing to do things that are unpopular that look crazy to others even things that might turn out to be wrong remember the goal for professional investors is to achieve above average returns it's easy to be average just by an index fund but it's incredibly hard to consistently outperform and every decision you make to try and outperform overweighting certain stocks avoiding others diversifying internationally holding cash all these choices come with the risk of underperforming so if you dare to be different you have to accept the possib ility of being wrong now markx also has a unique perspective on risk he doesn't believe risk can be truly Quantified even after the fact he gives this example imagine buying something for a dollar and selling it a year later for $2 was it risky there's no way to know for sure maybe you got lucky or maybe you were incredibly insightful it's impossible to disentangle luck and skill that's why Marx doesn't buy into quantitative risk models while he acknowledges that the past is relevant it's not a perfect predictor of the future in fact he argues that the most significant losses often occur when the patterns of the past stop applying which inevitably happens he also doesn't believe that we could reduce all the possibilities of the future into inputs that a computer can use to determine what's risky there's always an element of subjective judgment involved and Marx believes that human judgment when applied correctly is a crucial tool for managing risk another important aspect of Mark's investing philosophy is learning from mistakes he shares a story about an early investment he made into tech stocks that were expected to double in price on their first day of trading he bought 100 shares of each the next day both stocks had indeed double when he called his broker to sell the broker told him they were going to the moon and convinced him to hold on to one of the stocks that stock went up to $100 a share before trading was halted when it reopened it was trading at $25 it turned out there was some shady business going on from this experience marks learned that there are no sure things in investing he emphasizes the need to be skeptical even when presented with seemingly incredible opportunities he also learned the importance of learning lessons cheaply it's crucial to avoid those massive mistakes that can wipe out your long-term gains this leads him to the concept of humility which he believes is a Cornerstone of successful investing he quotes Peter Bernstein humility is an enormously important quality you can't win without it survival in the end is where the winners are by definition and survival begins with humility Marx believes humility is essential potential for survival and investing because you need to structure your finances and your portfolio in a way that allows you to withstand the inevitable bad times remember you can't succeed if you don't survive and surviving on average isn't enough you have to survive every day especially those tough days when the market is testing your resolve he stresses the importance of acknowledging the limits of your knowledge and being open to the possibility of being wrong he even talks about the concept of intellectual humility which means entering any discussion with the belief that the other person might be right this approach leads to much more productive and insightful conversations now markx acknowledges that it can be hard to be humble especially when things are going well it's easy to be humble when you're winning because it seems gracious but when things are going against you it can be much harder to admit your mistakes and learn from them Marx believes most people have defenses that make them Overlook their flaws and limitations preventing them from being truly humble however he also believes that you can learn more from your failures than your successes because success can easily lead to overconfidence and a belief that you're infallible the key is finding that balance between confidence and humility being confident enough to make decisions but humble enough to recognize that you could be wrong finally Marx addresses the challenge of navigating the massive amount of data available to investors today he points out that we have more data than ever before along with increasingly sophisticated tools to analyze it some argue that this allows us to know more and make better decisions but Marx has a different perspective he spent the early months of the pandemic living with his son Andrew who's also a professional investor and learn something valuable from that experience his son pointed out that easily accessible quantitative information about the present is not enough to make you a superior investor while you need to understand and process that information it's not enough because everyone else has access to it too to be truly Superior you have to go beyond just processing the data you have to understand the data better than everyone else you have to be better at evaluating the qualitative factors like the quality of company's CEO or their product and perhaps most importantly you have to be better at understanding the future Marx believes that technology while it will undoubtedly transform the investment industry will not replace the best investors why because technology can't replicate the Nuance judgment that the best human investors possess he doesn't believe a computer can meet five Executives and know which one is the next Steve's jobs or look at five business plans and know which one is the next Amazon these are subjective judgments that require human intuition and experience computers can process vast amounts of data quickly and accurately but they can't replace the kind of judgment that separates truly great investors from the rest Mark spent the first nine years of his career in equity research but uh found himself drawn to fixed income investing he always considered himself a more conservative investor and uh the world of bonds felt more aligned with his nature he even mentions Warren Buffett's quote that fixed income investing is the negative art why because bonds don't have the same upside potential as stocks they're issued at a certain price and redeemed at that same price so the best you can do is avoid the losers this aligns perfectly with oak trees Botto if we avoid the losers the winners take care of themselves Mark sees his innate conservatism as a real advantage in the fixed income space and one of the most profound Concepts Mark's talked about is second level thinking he argues that first level thinking is simplistic and superficial while second level thinking is deeper and more nuanced for example a first level thinker might look at a company with Rising earnings and say we should buy the stock but a second level thinker would consider a whole range of factors including the company's valuation competitive landscape and the overall economic environment Marx believes that to be successful in investing you absolutely need to be a second level thinker you need to be able to see beyond the obvious and consider all the relevant angles before making a decision and this is especially crucial in today's market where we're bombarded with information and opinions from every direction it's so easy to get caught up in the hype and make impulsive decisions but that's rarely a path to long-term success Marx also stresses the importance of patience and discipline in investing he says that one of the biggest mistakes investors make is trying to time the market buying when it's going up and selling when it's going down that's the exact opposite of what you should be doing instead he advocates for finding great companies that are undervalued by the market and holding on to them for the long term as he puts it time is the friend of the wonderful company and the enemy of the mediocre if you're patient and disciplined you'll be rewarded for your investments in the long run of course Marx acknowledges that investing is not easy there's inherent uncertainty and risk involved and no one can predict the future with 100% accuracy but if you have a solid investment philosophy do your research and cultivate patience you can significantly increase your chances of success now shifting gear slightly marks also touches on the topic of leadership believing it to be crucial for success in any field including investing he highlights the importance of leaders inspiring and motivating others making tough decisions and being willing to take calculated risks Marx believes the best leaders are those who are humble ethical and intelligent they're also adaptable recognizing that the world is constantly changing and they need to change with it lifelong learning and a commitment to continuous Improvement are Hallmarks of great leaders now beyond the realm of investing in leadership ship Marx also shares his perspective on success he doesn't define success solely in terms of money or fame for markx True success is about living a meaningful life and making a positive impact on the world he believes the path to success lies in finding something you're passionate about and pursuing it with your whole heart he also stresses the importance of giving back to the community we all have a responsibility to help others and make the world a better place now as we wrap up our exploration of Howard Marx's wisdom I want to lead leave you with some of his most valuable pieces of advice first be skeptical of conventional wisdom the crowd is often wrong and it's Central to think for yourself second as we've discussed throughout this exploration be patient and disciplined investing is a long game not a get-rich quick scheme third cultivate humility never assume you know everything and always be open to learning from others for your experiences and from your mistakes and lastly be generous do what you can to help others and make the world the better place Mark's willingness to share his insights freely through his books memos and lectures is a testament to his generosity and his belief in the power of Education he believes that knowledge is most valuable when it's shared and used to improve the lives of others and marks doesn't just talk the talk uh he walks the walk he consistently shares his insights and knowledge not just through his firm Oak Street Capital but also through his writing and lectures you might wonder why is he so generous with his time and knowledge well markx believes that simply knowing something isn't enough you have to act on that knowledge that's where he believes otri excels they take those insights and translate them into action he also finds it deeply rewarding to share what he's learned and uh help people navigate the complexities of the market he even tells a story about a prominent Economist from the 1970s who called him up one day and said you changed my life Marx was taken back and asked how happen it The Economist replied I don't make forecasts anymore I tell people what I think is happening what I think the implications are that's precisely the kind of impact Marx wants to have helping people shift from trying to predict the future to understanding the present and making informed decisions based on that understanding now cing back to a crucial Point Marx repeatedly emphasizes the importance of recognizing when you've been lucky versus when you've been skillful because let's face it it's often really tough to separate the two was that investment a stroke of Genius or just a lucky break it's not always easy to tell and this ties back into the importance of humility a quality that markx believes is essential for long-term success in investing he quotes Peter Bernstein who said humility is an enormously important quality survival in the end is where the winners are by definition and survival begins with humility so don't let success go to your head stay grounded recognize that a lot of what happens in the market is beyond your control and always be open to learning and adapting now speaking of things outside your control Marx highlights a significant challenge investors face today the sheer volume of data available it's overwhelming even for seasoned professionals as he learned from his son Andrew who's also an investor readily available quantitative information about the present isn't enough to give you an edge everyone has access to the same data and the tools to process it quickly so what sets the best investors apart Marx believes it comes down to what you do with that data you have to understand it better than the average person you have to be able to connect the DTs identify the key insights and see the bigger picture and you also have to be skilled at evaluating the qualitative aspects of a business the quality of leadership the strength of their product their competitive Advantage these things aren't easily captured in spreadsheets and data points and perhaps most importantly you have to develop a sense for the future not predicting specific events but understanding the broader Trends and forces that will shape the future of Industries and the global economy now Mark's knowledge is that artificial intelligence and machine learning will continue to transform the investment landscape will likely automate many tasks and even put some people out of work but he doesn't believe these technologies will ever fully replace the best human investors why because these Technologies at least for now lack the nuanced judgment that humans possess they can't meet with five Executives and know instinctively which one is the next Steve Jobs they can't analyze five business plans and pinpoint which one will become the next Amazon these are judgments that require deep understanding of human behavior market dynamics and a whole range of intangible factors that machines haven't quite mastered and this reinforces one of Mark's core principles the idea of second level thinking you have to see beyond the surface consider all the factors both quantitative and qualitative and think critically and independently to make Sound Investment decisions so there you have it a glimpse into the brilliant mind of Howard Marx hopefully you found his insights as variable as I did remember focus on the process not predictions Embrace contrarian thinking when the opportunity arises cultivate humility and never stop learning these are some of the key takeaways from Marx's Incredible Journey as an investor I encourage you to reflect on what resonate most with you from Marx's insights and think about how you can apply them to your own investment approach if you're hungry for more insights from leading investors and thinkers be sure to check out other videos on our Channel hash speaks finance and don't forget to like comment and subscribe to stay up to date on the latest Financial Trends and strategies
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