저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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Jim Rogers는 중국·러시아 등 BRICS의 달러 대체 시도와 각국 금 매집을 언급하며 위기 시 금·은 수요가 늘 것이라 주장. 은을 보유 중이며 금보다 역사적으로 싸다고 평가. 농산물이 가장 저평가되어 있다고 보며 역평균회귀 관점 유지. 2023년은 비관론이 크지만 그 비관이 깨지며 반등할 수 있다고 봄. 제목상 2025년 금·은 폭락을 경고하나 본문에서 구체적 폭락 시점·수치 제시는 없음.
다듬은 글
and if they get suddenly cut off the only alternative right now is gold or silver or somebody these International commodi so Jim Banks are buying now more gold than they have in the past 55 years since 1967 in your eyes are they preparing for something big well there are two or three things going on one something big is coming as as you and I both know but also I mean people are being forced away from the US dollar which which is terrible but you know an international medium of exchange is supposed to be neutral anybody is supposed to be able to use it for anything they want with no consequences but unfortunately now in Washington if they get angry at you they put sanctions on you even our friends so even our friends are now saying wait a minute we have to find something to replace or compete with the US dollar and many people are working on a competitor but in the meantime these guys are wait a minute we better be ready because if they suddenly cut us off what are we going to do and if they get suddenly cut off the only alternative right now is gold or silver or some of these International Commodities I all the talk is really the bricks Nations China uh India uh Russia you know you doing a Commodities backed uh currency um to try to sort of supplement the US dollar and supposedly Saudi AR Arabia is favorably inclined to join that process I don't know if it's official yet what do you think I mean you're you've been a Commodities guy all your life do you think they could do pull off what they they're reportedly trying to do create a new international Reserve bricks currency International what kind of currency no they're want to create a new competitor for the US dollar the bricks currency MH well the world can do it it would depend on how much urg there is at the moment they're acting slowly because there's no emergency yet but if there's an emergency yes and if there were an emergency this afternoon I'm sure they would immediately go to Gold because they don't there's nothing else that they can act on immediately gold has never worked in the long term it's been great for many many periods of world history but in the end you know gold requires discipline and politicians don't like discipline gold says okay guys you cannot games you cannot spend more money than you have Etc well politicians don't like that that's why that's why gold has never lasted and why it probably never will but they can come up with something and they will come up with something in an emergency because they'll have to Jim you you've seen what happened uh to Iraq and Saddam Hussein when he wanted to sell his oil in uh not he didn't want to sell it in the Petro dollar and Gadda Gaddafi he wanted to sell his oil in um the dinar and wanted to sell it in gold and he moved away but you see what happened to those countries what happens when it it officially happens with China or Russia or Saudi Arabia when they make the call what what happens to our way of life well as you know CH Russia a bit larger than Iraq and Libya and they have a lot more influence and assets and guns from those other guys that you mentioned in so if and when they decide to do it a block you and I are going to watch our standard of living decline just as the British did you know the British standard of living started declining and went down for many many years until bankruptcy uh I don't like saying any of this it's a good time to be an old American because Young Americans are going to have many many problems I've got two teenage kids the problems that they're going to face in their lifetime are not going to be fun are you buying any silver and gold uh I have silver as you all know I always have some silver a little bit right here just in case you never this is actually North Korean silver well there not much you can do with North Korea and silver except melt it down but anyway yes I have silver uh I'm not buying any serious right now but I will I am always waiting and at some point the market will tell me okay it's time to buy more silver either there will be some Panic sell something will happen right and I will buy more silver and gold especially silver I mean gold too but silver much cheaper than gold on a historic basis right now agriculture is certainly much cheaper than most Commodities right now I mean things are so bad that the average age of farmers in America is is 58 years old in Japan it's 68 years old w i mean nobody wants to be more people in America to study public relations than study farming nobody wants to be a farmer what I usually do is I get out the Commodities and I look to see which has performed the worst and if which perform which Commodities if it's agriculture which has performed the worst and that's where I'll start because often you've all been around a long time you know that markets revert uh than the people that are bad today will be good tomorrow and vice versa so that's the way I do it I look to see who's the worst performer if I can figure out why then I often will take a position so is that the theory like oh Farmers aren't going to be planting so much of that because the price is low therefore you know there's going to be less available so price is likely to correct back to the to the mean well it's not a theory it's the way the world Works no no no it totally it totally makes sense I just didn't know if that was your reasoning for thinking that way well no it's because I've been around long enough and have read enough that to know that that's how people act y you know if if if Farmers cannot make money planting X they don't plant it they plant something else and if you and I can find something that if x is really really cheap chances are we're going to use more of X and whatever it is because it's so cheap that's the way human beings have been for thousands of years Jim you uh we talked about other Commodities like silver and gold but are you buying any platinum are you watching uh the charts for platinum uh no it's mainly because I'm too lazy you guys figure out whether we should be buying Platinum now or padium or something else so Jim you know uh what's your general outlook for 2023 are you bearish are you bullish what's the you know what's your just gut feeling well there a huge amount of pessimism around right now and in my experience when there's so much pessimism usually something happens to break the pessimism and we have a surprise rally I would expect that to H I have no idea what will happen but something and we will have a better few months or better year than than most of us expect at the moment I fully expect a recession on the horizon Etc but that does not mean that something cannot happen you know China's just opened up again after several months and China is the second largest economy in the world so there can be good things happening in the world for a while so I just I would suggest to people that if you're terribly pessimistic you examine all the pessimism around it usually does not last
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