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inflation is a very serious subject you can argue it's the way democracies die when democracy dies in latin america inflation is a big part of it so it's a huge danger once you've got a populist that learns it can vote itself money if you overdo it too much you ruin your your civilization a lot and so of course it's a big long-range danger if you look at the roman republic and even after they went to a empire with an absolute ruler they inflated the currency steadily for hundreds of years and eventually the whole damn roman empire collapsed so it's the biggest long runs danger we have probably apart from nuclear war well i think the safe assumption for an investor is that over the next 100 years the currency's going to zero that's my working hypothesis a very dangerous environment what brought in hitler was the combination of the weimar inflation where they utterly destroyed the savings of the middle class in germany followed by the great depression it was a one-two punch and hitler came in crazy demagogue with 40 of the votes and pretty soon we had a dictator hell bent for world war so the history is not pleasant and germany was a very advanced and civilized nation the the germany that hitler took over i always say that the interesting thing about that was little albert einstein a little jewish boy got his entire primary education with the insistence of a catholic church in germany now that is a very civilized nation so if you let your nation deteriorate too much what you get is a hitler we've proved a modern democracy in the age of keynes you're going to get big government reaction the reaction this time was bigger than it's ever been before in the history of the united states they just threw money at the problem and they were probably right to to fear what was going to happen and to be quite liberal throwing money at it but they probably overdid it a little they threw so much money so fast that it's hard for the restaurants to get people to do the work but i don't criticize it it's hard to make these decisions under pressure when you throw money when you print money on the scale what modern nations are printing it japan the united states europe etc we're getting into new territory in terms of size the japanese bought back not only a lot of their own debt but a lot of the common stocks so the federal reserve system you can't imagine how much money printing japan has done they haven't had all that much inflation and they it's still a very admirable civilization in fact you you could argue that japan is one of the more admirable civilizations in the whole world and in spite of all this very extreme government money printing they've done and they haven't had terrible consequences now they've had 25 years of stasis with living standards not improving very much i don't think that came from their macroeconomic policies i think that came from the rise of tough competition for their export powerhouse for from china and korea but at any rate it's weird what's happening and nobody knows for sure how it's going to work out i think it's encouraging that japan could print as much money as it has and remain as civilized and calm as and and admirable as it has and so i hope to god the united states is similar happy outcome but i think the japanese are better adapted for stasis than we are i think it's a duty-filled civilized bunch of people a lot of them older not many young people and and they just suck it in and cope in our country we have terrible tensions it's way harder to run a country which is not monoethnic like japan there's some professor at harvard that has written extensively on this subject it's way harder to run a nation like the united states with different ethnicities and groups and so forth than it is to run japan there are japan is basically sort of a monoethnic civilization which is proud of its ethnicity and of course they can cope with it troubles more than better than some other people can uh charlie steve know where we're going there's never been anything quite like what we're doing now and we do know from what's happened in other nations if you if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble and we're closer to terrible trouble than than we've been in the past but it may still be a long way off i certainly hope so
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