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Michael Burry - Das Portfolio des Tesla Shortsellers - 1. Quartal 2021 (13 Käufe & 13 Verkäufe)

Aktienwelt · 2021-06-03 · 유튜브 시청 312 · Board Views 4 · International

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Michael Barry already made millions during the financial crisis, now he's massively launching Tesla. Today I'll show you his portfolio. Hello and welcome to Tsum Stocks. I'm André. Although this video isn't a stock analysis, please note that it doesn't constitute advice or a recommendation. Let's get straight to the buys and sells for the first quarter of 2021.

The data is from the 17th, 2021st, and as you can see, there was quite a lot of movement. Firstly, regarding the absolute number of new purchases—there were some new purchases and some 100% sales—and secondly, also regarding the percentage changes in the portfolio. But I'll mention one point in advance: this is typical for Michael.

He has such portfolio movements almost every quarter. I'll show you this in detail later, as it's really interesting. I've already done similar portfolio updates for the first quarter of 2021 on Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, and here I want to show you Buffett 's portfolio movements. Comparing them, it's immediately noticeable that in the far right column, the percentage changes in the portfolio are very small for Buffett compared to Michael Barry.

They simply have two completely different investment styles. Buffett is a long-term investor, while Michael Barry is, in my opinion, a clear trader. There's so much movement in the portfolio, practically every quarter. I'm showing you this because I went through many of Buffett's positions individually, but that's hardly worthwhile for Barry, as I would have to go through virtually all of them.

Therefore, I only want to show you the ones that had the greatest impact on the portfolio or that are special for other reasons. Now you can see everything sorted by the percentage change in the portfolio, so this is the far right column. I have to be completely honest and say that most of the imported positions are completely unknown to me.

There are a few I know, like Wells Fargo, of course, or Discovery, which is known from the Discovery Channel, even though it 's certainly more popular in the US than in Germany. But I had to Google most of the stocks myself. Let 's start right at the top. Works shows a new purchase and, at 7.2% and 60 %, also the position with the most influence on the portfolio.

This is a biotechnology company that, among other things, deals with the treatment of cancer. They are still relatively young, having only gone public in 2017, and if you look at the share price, you can see that they have lost quite a bit since their all-time high. Michael Barry is therefore betting on a recovery; otherwise, the purchase would hardly make sense.

Let's move on to the next company, CWS Health Corporation. This is a retail company operating in the pharmaceutical industry in the USA. They are arguably the leading provider of health products and services. This purchase makes up 7.11% of the portfolio. Just to put that in perspective, 110 shares were bought.

Even if we very pessimistically assume that they were bought at the peak of the first quarter of 2021 at around $76, that's approximately 8.4%. Millions of US dollars, just so you can see how much capital is actually being moved here. If you extrapolate that, the portfolio will be worth approximately 120 million dollars.

But that's not the complete portfolio; for example, all put and call options are missing. So, in total, the portfolio is much, much larger. I'll get to put and call options later. You do n't see all the movements in the portfolio in this particular overview because, as I said, coal production isn't included here.

So, for example, this short position on Tesla isn't shown here either. You only see the normal buys and sells here. But we'll get to the Tesla short position later, of course. I don't want to present the other changes in too much detail here. I think it's more interesting to look at the overall trend than to look at the relatively unknown companies individually.

For example, if you look at Now, he reduced his stake by about 50 percent. But he only bought it in the fourth quarter of 2020. You can see that below. And CWS Health Corp is also interesting because... He sold it in the fourth quarter of 2020 and then bought it again in the first quarter of 2021, as I showed you.

Wells Fargo is another example of this; he held it very briefly, buying it in the fourth quarter of 2020 and selling it completely in the first quarter of 2021. Wells Fargo is also interesting because Buffett almost completely sold this stock as well, reducing his position by almost 99 percent. So, at least in one respect, Buffett and Barry agree.

In summary, Michael Barry's investment strategy is to hold stocks very short-term. That's definitely not my investment style; I completely follow Warren Buffett's approach. That means with And Holt... Before I briefly show you Tesla, I've created an overview that illustrates this short-term trading.

Here you can see the number of new-build sales, partial sales, and 100-unit sales, as well as the percentage changes in the portfolio. What I noticed first is that he reinvests all sales relatively consistently. You can see here... He had sales of approximately 63 percent and reinvested about 57 percent directly through new purchases, so it pretty much balances out.

He had 13 sales and 13 purchases at the beginning. To me, that seemed quite deliberate, and that could certainly be the case. However, after looking at the previous quarters, I think Michael Barry isn't focusing on the exact number of sales. That is, if he makes 13 sales, I do n't think he's intentionally making 13 purchases.

I'll show you this using the fourth quarter of 2020 and the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the number of sales and purchases was identical (nine in total), but in the third quarter, that wasn't the case. Therefore, I don't think he's explicitly paying attention to the number of sales; that wouldn't make much sense anyway.

I think he's more concerned with keeping the portfolio relatively small and therefore concentrated. That means if he makes, for example, 10 sales of 100 percent, he doesn't then make 30 new purchases. This would reduce portfolio concentration, and the second point that stands out to me is that he reinvests the capital freed up by the 100% sales almost exactly.

In the first quarter of 2021, as I already showed you, he sold 63% of the portfolio and then repurchased 57%. You can see it here in the fourth quarter of 2020: 46% sales and approximately 40% new purchases. So these values ​​are relatively close together, although the gap is a bit larger in the third quarter of 2020, where there were sales of about 35 % of the portfolio and new purchases of about 51%.

I've highlighted these in red for you. So, to me, it definitely looks like he's making sure that the freed-up capital is reinvested. I don't follow Michael Barry actively, but these are all points I simply inferred from his portfolio history. He was asleep. If you want to know more about his investment strategy, please write it in the comments.

And if you like these portfolio updates, please give me a thumbs up. Thanks a lot! Now, let's get to the Tesla short. The website is, of course, linked in the video description. I do n't think I need to achieve much more because you've probably already read or heard about it. I also read that Michael Barry already took a swipe at their mask, or rather Tesla, on Twitter in January 2021.

Personally, I also think Tesla is massively overvalued, but I shouldn't. This is also quite relative to me. To a certain extent, the expectations or growth forecasts that one puts into such an action are justified. But if these are too high, there is a risk that they can no longer be fulfilled. Whether that's the case with Tesla, I don't want to and can't judge.

We'll just have to see. The next interesting point is the put on the 20-year keyboards. These are US Treasury bonds with a With a maturity of more than 20 years, he's essentially betting on rising inflation. If inflation rises, bond yields rise, and consequently, US Treasury prices fall. In my opinion, that's a really interesting point.

Finally, I want to show you a stock that also affects me personally. I saw a call option on Kraft Heinz, which means I can profit from rising prices on Kraft Heinz. I find that attractive, of course, since I 'm also invested. By the way, if you'd like to know what else I have in my portfolio besides Kraft Heinz, just take a look in the members' area.

There, I'll show you my portfolio: 1. Value Investor. I already considered Kraft Heinz perhaps undervalued back in December 2020, and they've performed very well since then. However, I wouldn't buy more shares now; the current price is simply too high for me. Even though I follow a completely different strategy than Michael Barry and Buffett, I always find portfolio updates like these interesting because...

In my opinion, there's a lot to learn from the considerations behind these movements. Feel free to write your opinion on his portfolio in the comments, and until next time!

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