저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 쉬프는 연준이 2016년 12월 금리인상을 실제로는 하지 않을 가능성이 크며, 경기 둔화 속 인상 시 2008년보다 더 큰 금융위기가 온다고 주장한다. 연준 의사록 해석: 의사록은 과반이 12월 인상 조건이 충족될 수 있다고 봤지만 결정은 데이터에 달려 있다는 것으로, 확정이 아니다. 쉬프는 연준이 올해 내내 인상을 미뤄왔고 변명을 찾는 중이라고 본다. 경기 판단: 최근 데이터(고용 보고서 수정 없음, 저임금 일자리, 대형 유통사 실적)가 대체로 나빠 경기가 이미 둔화 중이라고 주장한다. 연준이 제로금리를 유지하는 것은 이 현실을 반영한다는 논리다. 증시 전망: 쉬프는 S&P500 공매도를 직접 권하지는 않는다. 시장은 저금리·QE(유럽 테러 후 추가 완화 기대 포함)에 의해 떠받쳐지고 있으며, 연준이 금리를 올리지 않으면 시장이 좋아하고, 완화가 사라지면 하락할 것이라고 본다. 다만 실물경기와 증시의 괴리는 지속되고 있다고 한다. 금리인상 시나리오: 연준이 12월 0.25%p 인상 후 '한 번으로 끝'이라고 말할 가능성은 있지만 위험한 게임이라 후회할 것이라고 본다. 인상이 이뤄지면 곧 재인하 및 QE4가 뒤따를 것으로 본다. 금 전망: 금 가격 상승 관련 제목이 있으나 자막에서 금에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 발언은 확인되지 않는다. 위기 전망: 2008년의 원인이 된 문제들이 오히려 커졌기 때문에, 정상화 시도 시 다음 금융위기는 2008년보다 훨씬 클 것이라고 한다. 인상 여부와 무관하게 발생하지만 인상이 빠를수록 더 빨리 올 것이라고 본다. 통화위기와 국가부채위기가 동반되며 구제금융은 없을 것이라고 한다. 금리 방향: 쉬프는 12월 인상보다 인상 유보를 더 가능성 높게 본다고 말한다. 미국채 10년물 금리의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없다. 주요 리스크: 정책 실수로 인한 신용·통화 위기, 연준의 정상화 시도 실패, 자산 버블의 붕괴.
다듬은 글
let's bring in europacific capital CEO Peter Schiff uh Peter we were just commenting that the minutes uh it's like an ink blot you can read it however you want to read it so how do you read it well first of all you know according to the minutes a rate hike has been a possibility all year long and it and it hasn't happened in fact if you read the minutes what it what it says is that a majority of members not all but a majority or most believe that the conditions may be right for a rate hike in December but they're not sure they haven't made up their mind yet it all depends on the data and so they're going to make up their mind then so I don't see how that's any different than anything theyve said all you're round and how people could read those minutes and jump to the conclusion that a December rate hike is a lock uh so what do you think happens then Peter Well I think that the FED has not raised interest rates all year because they're afraid to do it I think they're they're worried about the economy they don't want to admit that so they pretend they're going to raise rates but they keep coming up with excuses why they're not going to do it and there's plenty of excuses they could use not to raise rates nober now maybe if we get to December and the stock market is near all-time highs and everybody thinks the rate hike is fine is it possible that they'll deliver a quarter point and then try to talk it back by you know by saying one and done we're not going to do anymore it's possible but I think if they do that they're going to regret it because I think it's a very dangerous game the FED is playing because I do think the economy is decelerating if they really data dependent the data has been coming out bad almost all the data that's come out since their last beating has been bad including all the data we got this week I mean even that overhype jobs number if you factor in that the prior two months were not revised up which everybody thought was going to happen and it didn't happen for the prior three months we didn't get more job creation than the FED expected and these are low-paying jobs and look at the lousy numbers that have come out the earnings from the big retailers the economy is already decelerating and the FED still r at zero pet Brian Kelly so so I'm curious so I mean basically I I agree with your your economic uh analysis that things are slowing down my question then is do you then just outright short the S&P 500 because I think if the FED does not raise the market could be disappointed I I you know I disagree in fact you know I think one of the reasons the market is rising now is because uh the terrorist attacks in in Europe make it likely that we'll get more QE in Europe and therefore maybe the FED won't move and in fact by talking about the FED in the FED said today if they do raise rates that means that they're not going to raise them very much so I think it's the easy money that is still propping up the market and If the Fed doesn't raise rates the market is going to like that because that's all this Market has it's all about cheap money QE and if we lose that the Market's going down so Peter walk me through uh your analysis of of what will happen here I mean you think that the FED will probably go ahead in December you think that we're in a terrible economic backdrop so what so does that mean that the economy is going to really be in trouble raises rates but the stock market will continue to Rally because they they like the FED hike yeah well the stock market's been rallying for years but the real economy is get been getting worse continue that diverent path is what you're saying in terms of the economy going this is a bub this is not a recovery what the FED has made a major mistake they have made all the problems that caused the 2008 financial crisis worse so now if they start to try to normalize interest rates the next financial crisis is going to be much worse than the one in 2008 because all the problems that caused it are bigger so that is the reality and that's why I still think the FED is likely more likely not to raise rates in December but continue to pretend that a rate hike is just around the corner but that the conditions are just not right that the data just doesn't support is this financial crisis that will be worse in 2008 will that be spurred by a Fed rate hike in December or will that happen regard regardless of whether the FED hikes in December or later on oh it's going to happen regardless but I do believe that if the FED hikes rates it'll happen sooner rather than later because the sooner they hike rates the sooner they're going to have to cut them again and launch qe4 to try to reflate this bubble but I think by then uh the markets are going to figure this out and we're going to have a currency crisis and a sovereign debt crisis and that's going to be much worse than the financial crisis of 2008 because there are no bailouts from that Peter great to speak with you thank you for your time thanks for having me on Peter shiff your Pacific Capital
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