Nouriel Roubini, who predicted 2008 crisis, sees stock sinking 40% and global recession | THE A TEAM

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Roubini는 2022년 말부터 2023년 내내 이어질 길고 추한 미국·글로벌 경기침체와 S&P 500의 대폭 조정을 전망하며, 투자자는 주식을 줄이고 현금을 늘려야 한다고 조언. 경기침체 전망: 평범한 경기침체에서도 S&P 500은 30% 하락 가능하며, 진짜 하드랜딩에선 40%까지 떨어질 수 있다고 봄. 기업·정부·금융권의 높은 부채비율과 금리 상승에 따른 이자부담 증가로 좀비 기관·가계·기업·은행·그림자금융·좀비 국가가 무너질 것이라고 주장. 2008년과 달리 이번엔 기업과 헤지펀드·사모펀드·크레딧펀드 등 그림자금융이 붕괴할 것이라고 언급. 금리·연준: 연준이 이번 회의에서 75bp 인상, 11월·12월 각 50bp 인상을 예상하며 연말 기준금리는 4~4.25%. 임금·서비스 물가의 끈질긴 인플레이션 때문에 연준은 금리를 5%대까지 더 올릴 수밖에 없다고 봄. 2% 인플레이션을 하드랜딩 없이 달성하는 것은 연준에게 'mission impossible'이라고 평가. 공급충격: 팬데믹, 러-우 전쟁, 중국 제로코로나 정책이 비용 상승과 성장 둔화를 초래. 이는 1970년대식 스태그플레이션으로 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 재정정책: 각국 정부는 부채가 과도해 재정 부양 여력이 없으며, 재정 부양은 총수요 과열을 부를 수 있다고 봄. 메가스레츠(신간 'Mega Threats') 11가지 중기 부정적 공급충격: 탈세계화·보호무역, 중국·아시아에서 유럽·미국으로의 제조업 이전, 선진국·신흥국 고령화, 이민 규제, 미중 디커플링, 기후변화, 반복되는 팬데믹 등. 투자 조언: 주식 비중을 낮추고 현금을 늘려야 함(현금은 인플레로 실질가치가 줄지만 주식·자산은 10~30% 이상 하락 가능). 채권은 장기채를 피하고, 단기 국채나 TIPS 등 물가연동채로 인플레 방어.

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01. economist nuri l roubini who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis sees a long and ugly recession in the u.s and globally occurring at the end of 2022 that could last all of 2023 and a sharp correction in the s p 500 even in a plane vanilla recession the s and p 500 can fall by 30 said roubini chairman and chief executive officer of roubini macro associates in an interview monday in a real hard landing which he expects it could fall 40 roubini whose prescience on the housing bubble crash of 2007-2008 earned him the nickname dr doom said that those expecting a shallow u.s recession should be looking at the large debt ratios of corporations and governments as rates rise and debt service in costs increase many zombie institutions zombie households corporates banks shadow banks and zombie countries are going to die he said so we'll see who's swimming naked roubini who has warned that global debt levels will drag down markets said that achieving a 2 inflation rate without a hard landing is going to be mission impossible for the federal reserve he expects a 75 basis points rate hike at the current meeting and 50 basis points in both november and december that would lead the fed funds rate by year's end to be between 4 and 4.25 however persistent inflation especially in wages and the service sector will mean the fed will probably have no choice but to hike more he said with funds rates going toward 5 on top of that negative supply shocks coming from the pandemic russia ukraine conflict and china's zero covert tolerance policy will bring higher costs and lower economic growth this will make the fed's current growth recession goal a protracted period of meager growth and rising unemployment to stem inflation difficult once the world is in recession roubini doesn't expect fiscal stimulus remedies as governments with too much debt are running out of fiscal bullets high inflation would also mean that if you do fiscal stimulus you're overheating the aggregate demand as a result roubini sees a stagflation like in the 1970s and massive debt distresses in the global financial crisis it's not going to be a short and shallow recession it's going to be severe long and ugly he said roubini expects the u.s and global recession to last all of 2023 depending on how severe the supply shocks and financial distress will be during the 2008 crisis households and banks took the hardest hits this time around he said corporations and shadow banks such as hedge funds private equity and credit funds are going to implode in roubini's new book mega threats he identifies 11 medium-term negative supply shocks that reduce potential growth by increasing the cost of production those include deglobalization and protectionism relocating of manufacturing from china and asia to europe and the u.s aging of population in advanced economies and emerging markets migration restrictions decoupling between the u.s and china global climate change and recurring pandemics it's only a matter of time until we're going to get the next nasty pandemic he said his advice for investors you have to be light on equities and have more cash though cash is eroded by inflation its nominal value stays at zero while equities and other assets can fall by 10 20 30 in fixed income he recommends staying away from long-duration bonds and adding inflation protection from short-term treasuries or inflation index bonds like tips juries or and