저자: CompoundingCapital · 외국인
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Bill Ackman의 투자 원칙(여유 자금 확보, 레버리지 회피, 집중투자)과 과거 성공 사례(General Growth, Wendy's, Chipotle, Alphabet 등)를 소개. 개인 투자자는 대부분 광범위 ETF가 적합하며 집중투자는 시간 투입 가능 정도에 따라 종목 수를 정하라는 취지. 진행자는 Cisco(CSCO)와 Pfizer(PFE)를 장기 가치 투자 대상으로 제시하며 Cisco는 Splunk 인수 효과로 저평가라고 주장.
다듬은 글
with markets now hitting new highs it's definitely getting like fomo in here there's a tremendous amount of hype around AI so I thought it'd be a great opportunity to look at one of the greatest investors somebody who takes after a name like Warren Buffett that's going to be Bill Amman he is the founder of persing square capital and he's a billionaire hedge fund manager net worth sitting right around $9.4 billion so yeah this guy might know a thing or two about investing and actually one of his biggest Investments and one of his biggest wins was a $60 million investment that turned into a whopping $1.6 billion return that was his investment in a failing Mall operator General Growth Properties he's also made some great investments in companies like Wendy's and chipotle and we're going to take a look at his very concentrated portfolio we're going to talk about portfolio management uh a key success factor is you want to have enough money in the bank that you're going to survive uh you know regardless of what's going on with volatility and markets you know people who uh one you shouldn't borrow money so if you borrow money you own stocks on margin markets are going down and you have your livelihood at risk it's very difficult to be rational so key is getting yourself to a place where you're financially secure you know stock prices stocks can trade at any price in the short term and if you know what a business is worth and you understand the management you know it extremely well it's not nearly as uh it doesn't bother you when a stock price goes down or it has much less impact on you because you know you know again as uh Mr Graham said you know the shortterm the market is a voting machine you have a bunch of lemmings voting One Direction that's concerning but if it's a great business doesn't have a lot of debt and people going to just listen to more music next year than this year you know you're going to do well I think uh now I'm a pretty emotional person I would say or I feel pretty strong emotions but not in investing I'm remarkable immune to kind of volatility and that's a big advantage and it took some time for me to develop that it's a bit again I you can learn a lot from other people's experience it's one of the the few businesses where you can learn an enormous amount by reading about other periods in history uh you know watch you know following Buffett's career the mistakes he made if you're investing a lot of capital every one of your mistakes is going to be big you know I thought with the market going to or highs a video like this from an expert investor is always good to kind of go back and take a look at how they're thinking how they're position and what their thought processes are and how they learn from other investors as well now for 99.9% of people they should be invested in a welld diversified ETF that has Global exposure and that has a low expense how many stocks should you personally be owning now I definitely believe in more of concentration and when we look at the market performance it definitely makes sense that you want to be more concentrated as roughly a little over 10 names have really carried the majority move of this market and if you didn't have exposure to those names well you've massively underperformed the market which means that you should have probably just invested in an index and not have been stressed out regardless what we're looking at right now is Persian Square's Holdings they recently sold out of lows but they got a really really nice gain of 121% on lows now in this video Bill Amman did bring up Google and where he found the opportunity when Google was trading for right around 15 times earnings he thought this was an absolute steal and the reason being is there was a lot of talk about AI with Microsoft Chat GPT and all of a sudden the valuation of Google seemed to kind of go to the hip side and this is where he thought the opportunity was because Google was actually making investments in AI before any other company he's buying it at a massive discount compared to their peers and the company has tremendous growth opportunities in the future even though it was getting overlooked by the market the market was getting behind these stories but we all know Google was making these Investments years prior to AI becoming a big topic of conversation and as we can see here he's up 64% the only loser in his portfolio is going to be the Howard Hughes Holdings down 22% one of the areas that bill Amman I think has an advantage over most is he's really good at picking out restaurants he's done it with Wendy's he's done it with Chipotle and he's done it with a few other restaurants as well and so this is something this is definitely a strength of his is picking out these restaurant winners which to me is actually one of the harder things to do because it tends to be a very volatile low margin business and usually competitive now once again in this video he did talk about owning a certain amount of positions about 12 to 15 positions I believe was what he recommended now granted he's owning right around seven are do you have a process on figuring out stocks do you understand certain business models better than others and how much time do you really have to dedicate for individual stock picking following everything from quarterly reports to what management is doing it becomes very timec consuming and actually becomes very stressful and if you're not beating the market what actually becomes the point of picking individual stocks and so how I kind of break it down is depending on how many hours a week you can contribute that's how many names you probably should own meaning that if you have about 3 hours a week to contribute to individual stock picking then you probably should only be owning about three to four names if you have 5 to 10 hours to contribute to individual stock picking then maybe you can own 10 to 12 different names but the vast majority of your portfolio should be a set it and forget it into a well Diversified ETF and if you do pick those winners then obviously you're going to outperform the market because you have overexposure to those names now for me personally I am definitely taking more of a concentrated look at this Market reason being is when I look at valuations on the stock market to me they are very stretch stretched but I also think there's tremendous deep value opportunities when we take a look at some of the recent acquisitions that have been made and I want to talk about one of my largest positions right now the two positions that I'm holding the majority stake of is going to be fiser and Cisco Systems now if you're new to the channel I just started building into a portfolio and this is going to be a journey that you can follow along with and I'll keep you guys up to date now the two things I really like about both these companies is they've made recent acquisitions that have really gotten overlooked by the market and specifically in this video I want to talk about Cisco Systems now with fizer this is going to be a long turnaround story but the valuation seems cheap they are paying over a 6% dividend at the current price so majority of my returns are probably going to come through dividends over the next couple years but I do believe with the acquisition of C genen fizer will be an absolute player when we talk about cancer treatments now currently what's the big Hot Topic the big hot topics are weight loss in AI which is making it an unfavorable stock for today which makes it cheap right now now of course this could blow up in my face fiser could have massive problems and they could not be a player in valuation and this could absolutely be a value trap but on this video I want to specifically talk about Cisco Systems now Cisco Systems has been making tremendous amount of Acquisitions and they've also started an AI fund that they invested a billion dollars in so where Cisco system is trading is basically word has always traded meaning that valuation has not appreciated even though the company has made a tremendous amount of investments in the future and I want to talk through a few different of the Investments that they have made and why I think this is a tremendous opportunity and a pretty good value for a very good company I don't think I'm getting it extremely cheap I think this is a company that could actually break below $40 a share currently trading around $47 a share and this is a company I want to build a massive stake in because I really like what management doing I think it's a great company at a good price and I think there's tremendous growth opportunities that's being overlooked by the market so when we look at the trailing PE and the fordp of Cisco Systems everything is pretty much in line through the last few years but the company's been making tremendous amounts of Investments That is obviously not being priced into the stock and this is where I personally see the disconnect now we can go down a massive laundry list of all the companies that they have acquired but there's only one I really want to highlight right now and that's going to be the acquisition of Splunk now CIS acquired Splunk for $157 a share which came out to a $28 billion purchase obviously this is pretty expensive purchase now in my opinion I do believe that they overpaid but now that we're looking at what's going on with cyber security maybe they got a really good deal here so with Splunk they're doing right around $4.22 billion of revenue for 2024 now I look at a company like paler and I'm not trying to compare the two but the profiles are kind of similar here palente trade trades for right around a $56 billion market cap and is only and is only doing right around $2.3 billion of Revenue which means Splunk is doing double the revenue of paler but trading at half the valuation so when I look at this I'm seeing that well Cisco Systems I'm essentially buying them at the same price that they were 3 4 years ago but I'm getting Splunk in all the Acquisitions that they've been making absolutely free here and this seems like a big disconnect to me on the stock not only trading at forward earnings sitting around 13 times but think about this with Cisco's Network how many new customers are they going to get while implementing Splunk which means that that $4.22 billion of Revenue could actually Skyrocket much faster than everybody anticipated and that's going to do two things that's going to grow their Topline Revenue at a faster Pace but it's also going to grow margins because the Splunk side of their business is a SAS business which is a higher margin business and that means more free cash flow for the company now just a little bit of icing on the cake is obviously going to be this nice 3.3% dividend it's trading below a market multiple paying an above average dividend rate and I think five plus years out that they are actually going to outgrow earnings versus the s&p500 so I do think this will be an outperformer over the next 1 to two years I think it's going to take time to implement all these businesses that they've acquired make them run efficient and unfortunately I do think there's going to be layoffs taking place because they're not going to need as much Workforce as they've acquired a new company and extra management and extra employees that are most likely not going to be needed because there's some synergies here so I look at this acquisition and I see that the price hasn't appreciated but I think they're making great great Investments now when we look at what Splunk was bought for $28 billion and we see some of the valuations on these cyber security companies this is absolutely looking like a steal for Cisco Systems now I do think that a lot of these valuations are stretched but I also think that CIS I also think that Splunk has an advantage because now they have the acceleration of Revenue growth with the relationships that Cisco's been building over the last 50 and 60 years that's an advantage that a lot of other cyber security companies do not have and so this is why it's going to be built out to one of my larger positions and I'm hoping to get it on a bigger pullback I would love to be I would love to build another $5 to $10,000 into the position and hold it longterm as always guys hopefully you enjoyed the di in and we will see you in the next one
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