저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
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Joel Greenblatt가 자신의 최고 투자와 최악 투자 경험을 회고하며 가치투자 원칙을 설명하는 강연 발췌. 최고의 투자: 자본가치의 절반에 거래되는 좋은 사업을 가진 기업에 투자한 사례. 복잡한 자본구조 때문에 시장이 잘 이해하지 못했고, 이를 분석해 대량 매수했다. 이 발견이 가치투자자 클럽(Value Investors Club) 설립의 계기가 되었으며, 인터넷 게시판에서 이 구조를 먼저 파악한 사람을 회원으로 영입했다. 포지션 사이징 원칙: 가장 큰 포지션은 가장 많이 벌 것 같은 종목이 아니라, 손실이 나지 않을 것이라 확신하는 종목이다. 하방 리스크가 낮고 상방 옵션이 있을 때 크게 베팅한다. 최악의 투자: Comdex를 보유한 스핀오프 기업에 주당 약 3달러에 투자했다. 주당 6달러에 신주 발행 예정이었고 주가는 12달러까지 올랐으나, 사업 매력에 빠져 조기 매도하지 않았다. 이후 2001년 9월 이후 다른 전시회를 인수하며 차입을 늘렸고, 9·11 이후 출장 수요가 급감해 주가가 크게 하락했다. 여기서 레버리지 교훈을 얻었는데, 이는 금융 레버리지뿐 아니라 고정비 구조에서 비롯되는 영업 레버리지(operating leverage)였다. 매출이 줄면 이익이 급감하는 구조를 간과한 것이 실패 원인이다. 교훈: 집중투자의 위험, 영업 레버리지 이해의 중요성, 실수는 피할 수 없으므로 두려워하지 말고 같은 실수가 다른 형태로 반복되지 않도록 학습해야 한다는 점. 조기 매도 원칙을 지키지 못한 것도 주요 실수로 언급되었다. 시장 전망: 발췌 내에서 대상 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 전망은 언급되지 않음.
다듬은 글
that's great Joel if you look back over your career Canyon can you talk about a home run that sticks out how did you find it how did you build conviction oh well I can think of one that was actually the inspiration for the value investors club we were just running our own capital we ran outside capital for ten years and we returned all their outside capital I didn't take outside capital again till 2009 to run directly anyway so this was during a period where we run weren't running outside a capital and one of my and so we were just looking for good ideas for ourselves and one of the we had figured out one of the best investments I had ever seen and it was a the reason it was so great was it was it was a company selling at half its cash value with a great business attached okay and usually when I size positions it doesn't have so much to do my largest positions are not the ones I think are gonna make the most money from my largest positions are the ones I don't think I'm gonna lose money in so that I can buy a lot of that without taking much risk and if there's some optionality meaning it can it could go up and this had everything this I was buying at half its cash value with a good business attached it was a complicated capital structure that people couldn't figure out because it was relatively new and and people hadn't seen it but if you did that's what you were buying you you were buying something in half its cash value with a good business so obviously we bought a lot of that and we thought oh we're so smart we're one of the only people out there who's found this and then my partner found on a Yahoo message board of all places someone who had figured this out in all it's complicated glory and a funny story the gentleman who figured this out actually was working at a supermarket at the time it was just a really smart guy and it's a light bulb went off and we sort of said wow there's intelligent life out there wouldn't it be wouldn't it be great if we can put together a group of people who could talk and people at the time this was 1999 we're looking for millions of eyeballs on Internet and you know whatever they were talking about and I thought the internet was great to like have little meetings with people who are all over the country at different times or all over the world and and you could sort of have a little Club I was always fascinated with a idea of investment club so we actually he was one of the first members of the value investors Club and he got the idea of could we attract smart people to share ideas that was that was the deal was free to join but you had to share your good ideas and this gave us the idea that it wasn't just the normal hunting places that you could find really smart people who did good work so that was a really good one half its cash value and with a good business attached and it was really because it was a complicated capital structure the I wouldn't call my worst investment but I'd say my most disastrous investment I don't know anyway I've had a bunch of my partner Rob Goldstein join me in 1989 always joke that you know if we work for someone else over the last fifteen years they would have fired us about eight times you know so you have you have to be willing to I guess make mistakes and and you can't really avoid it and so our worst one was probably we actually bought through a spinoff a company that actually owned Comdex which used to be a computer trade show and it was the biggest one and we were actually able to create it before the spin-off for about three dollars a share and it was gonna sell some new shares at six dollars and that had been announced but yet we could create it by buying the parent and shorting another piece and creating what was left for about three dollars so all good so far but we actually fell in love with the business what I loved about the business was that they ran this trade show in Las Vegas and you could rent all the trade space you wanted in Las Vegas at the time and it was available at about $2 a square foot and they could rear end it at $62 a square foot so whenever the trade show grew they would spend another $2 and get a 62 dollar contribution and so we fell in love with the operating dynamics of this business and the the stock actually went from $3 and when they sold some more stock at 6:00 and the stock actually went to 12 and we had a really large position at $3 the reason for that is that we thought we could get out right away at 6:00 we did not get out right away at 6:00 because we fell in love with the business and went to 12 so it sounds good so far but then unfortunately after shortly after about September 9th 2001 the company bought another trade show and borrowed a lot of money and then after September 11th no one wanted to travel at all and both trade shows really went downhill and and everyone knows about financial leverage meaning you know hey you borrow a lot of money you pay your money you take your chances you know you're put up a dollar you borrow nine you know that's a risky investment so this is how I learned about operating leverage which is when you lay out another two dollars and collect 62 when the sales go down right when you lose 62 dollars in revenue 60 of your profits just evaporated and it drops immediately to the bottom line that's called operating leverage so that was my lesson in operating leverage the stock I think I got out at a little over one or so so you know things happen you know this it's a lesson in concentration it's a lesson in operating leverage I've learned a lot of things and and I can still safely say I'm always learning I'm always making a new mistake I'm trying not to make the same ones but the same ones usually have a little different face on them you're really making the same one but you know it presented in a little different way and you didn't notice it and you would go make that mistake again and so I guess advice would be don't be shy about making mistakes because you will anyway
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