저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 통화량 증가 우려에도 실질 통화 기준 인플레이션 폭발 근거는 약하며, 현재 시장은 여전히 우려(벽)를 안고 상승 중이라는 낙관적 견해. 통화속도(velocity)의 중요성: 인플레이션은 통화량뿐 아니라 통화가 돌아가는 속도에 좌우되며, MV=PQ 모형이 핵심 틀이다. 프리드먼 계열은 통화속도가 안정적이라고 봤으나 현재는 예측이 어렵다. 광의통화 M4 급증: 지난해 연준 개입으로 M4가 약 30% 급증해 인플레이션 우려가 커졌다. 그러나 2005년 이후 M4 통화속도는 꾸준히 하락했고 2020년에는 급락해 M4 증가분을 거의 상쇄했다. 통화 정의 비판: M4 같은 넓은 통화 정의에는 1년 만기 국채, CD 등 실제 교환수단이 아닌 자산이 포함된다. 실질 통화(교환매체)의 속도가 핵심인데 이를 계산할 지표가 현재 없다고 주장. 향후 M5(암호화폐·장기국채·우량주 포함), M6 등장 가능성을 농담조로 언급. 정부 지출의 성격: 지난해 코로나 관련 정부 지출 대부분은 재화·서비스 구매가 아니라 부채 상환과 저축에 쓰여 실질 통화 유통을 늘리지 않았다고 해석. 은행 대출 감소: 최근 9개월간 은행 대출이 축소되고 있어 실질 통화량에 마이너스 영향을 준다고 봄. 투자 함의: 인플레이션 우려가 여전히 존재한다는 점은 시장 입장에서 근본적으로 강세 요인이다. 과도한 낙관이 아니라 '걱정의 벽(wall of worry)'을 타고 오르는 강세장이며, 발언 시점 기준 주가는 신고가라고 언급. 특정 자산(삼성전자, 비트코인 등) 개별 가격 방향 발언은 없음. 시장 전반에 대한 중립~강세적 견해.
다듬은 글
i've been asked why it is that velocity of money matters and particularly why it matters now and in this i need to take you on a little bit of back trip into some historical evolution to portray now correctly so before i do that let me just say that the fear arises because the broadest measure of money as defined in recent times m4 which is very broad exploded last year through u.s central bank activities in america and that legitimately causes concerns about inflation and then questions legitimately arise about how do you see that correctly and traditionally it's always been true that there is both the quantity of money and how fast the money turns over because if the money turns over faster that actually speaks to more potential for inflation if the money turns over slower less so traditionally going back way way back before there was actually calculations on the quantity of money there was theory derived in the late era of the classical economists of the day particularly by no relation namesake irving fisher who was a famous economist at the time who got heavily debunked after the 1929-32 stock market crash that there's this model m v equals p q m meaning the quantity of money v meaning how fast it turns over equals p the price of all goods and services produced and q the quantity of them price times quantity later being defined to be gdp inclusive of inflation so the mv equals pq model was something that was and still is in sort of intro economics taught as a macro simplistic framework and therefore velocity factors in but the early subsequent monetarists led predominantly by legendary milton friedman presumed that velocity a couldn't really be precisely predicted and b was probably pretty stable now in the very beginning money was gold coins banknotes uh and bank reserves and that was the first money that was calculated and then we moved to progressively bigger and broader definitions of money so by the time milton friedman was most popular in the 1960s you had m1 and m2 and then that included time deposits and banks m2 with m1 and then you moved on to broader definitions in m3 and then broader still definitions in m4 that include things like uh certificates of deposit and u.s treasury securities with a maturity less than one year and and and much broader that m4 the broadest measure and there was always the view that the broadest measure was the best uh it exploded a growth of almost 30 percent last year tied to covet uh expansions on the part of the central bank federal reserve and with that this fear of inflation the reality of that however is that from the introduction of m4 after in the decade around 2005 after the 2007 89 crash and with it velocity just kept falling the velocity of m4 has been falling steadily ever since and then plunged in 2020 as m4 grew by 30 percent offsetting the growth of the quantity of money almost perfectly almost perfectly so that if you were a traditional monetarist that believed that velocity should be steady state which by then you probably should have gotten over but a lot of people hadn't you'd believe that inflation should explode immediately but inflation didn't explode immediately and therefore quandary and in that quandary you come to what i consider to be a very important point we don't have a good measure of velocity for what's the real quantity of money what is the real quantity of money because it's not m4 and in fact i'm thinking and i've actually uh written in a piece that has run on real clear markets that i think pretty soon they'll come up with m5 which might include crypto and uh might include a longer term treasury securities and might include high quality stocks and then after that to probably come up with m6 it includes scrap plastics and a you know basket of used antiques and uh maybe some tesla batteries i don't know but you get my point that these things aren't real money money is what is used as a medium of exchange when you buy and sell things it's money is something you use to transact for the purchase of real things you don't use one-year treasuries to buy things you sell one-year treasuries to get money which you then use to buy things and that understanding leads you back to the core of what money really is and what the velocity has to be that would be important that but we have no calculation for that today and so what i believe has happened is that the velocity of money has fallen tied to savings paying back debt most of the money for example that the federal government spent last year on covid was not spent on buying goods and services but was spent paying back debt and saving which is repaying loans and in repaying loans you're actually offsetting the increase in these other monies and these near monies aren't real monies it's the velocity of real monies that matter and that may actually have been steady state because that didn't really increase very much it's the near monies that increased so much that's what the federal reserve impacted hugely and in fact uh now as i speak for the last nine months bank lending has been shrinking and as bank lending shrinks that's a negative impact on the quantity of real money because people borrow money to spend it on things so with that i would say that the velocity is important it's hard to get a handle on we don't really have the impact of real money having exploded the way the appearance of real money has exploded and the fact that people are so concerned right now about inflation is fundamentally an underlying bullish thing because it says while there's more optimism than there used to be people aren't over the top optimistic they're still worried about things there's still wall of worry to climb for this bull market which oh by the way as i speak at a new all-time high today
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