저자: CathieWood추정—발언자소속은자막기준ARKInvest;제목·설명란정보부족,영상내화자표기는'사회자설명/인용'혼재 · 외국인
요약 보기
ARK의 'Big Ideas' 보고서를 인용해 비트코인을 통화·기술(에이전틱 커머스 결제 레이어)·자산군 세 측면의 혁명으로 제시. 금과의 상관계수 0.14로 포트폴리오 분산 효과를 강조. 최근 약 50% 조정 후 저점 근접 가능성과 기관 매수 기대를 언급했으나 확정 약속은 부인. 양자컴퓨팅 위협은 2040~2060년대로 보고 OG들의 지갑 이동은 신중한 대응으로 해석.
다듬은 글
If our research is correct, that this this Bitcoin is three revolutions in one. It's a global digital private, very important, rules-based, even more important, monetary system. And that's a very big idea. The second revolution is it is a technology. It's a a new technology. It's a It's really adding another layer, I would say, to the internet so that we have a native currencies native to the internet that will be able to handle a agentic commerce and other other such agentic movements taking place out there.
That's a very big idea. By the way, if you haven't read the Big Ideas report that Cathie is talking about, you're seriously missing out. It's a phenomenal paper. I read it in one sitting. And it's incredibly interesting. They've clearly put in a massive amount of research. Honestly, this kind of insight is worth hundreds of thousands.
This is the level organizations pay top consultants like McKinsey for. So, if you want it, subscribe to the channel and comment crypto report. I'll send you the download link directly. And I'll also post it on the YouTube community tab. So, if you're subscribed, you'll get it either way. And then and it won't be, of course, just Bitcoin.
It'll be ether, importantly ether. Solana maybe hyper liquid. We shall see. But what's interesting about this period is the big three have been identified. And those are Bitcoin, ether, and Solana. You know, the worry historically has been how many of these things are there going to be? Is this going to be a very fragmented situation?
And we're learning we're learning who the big winners are are going to be, who the big winners are. In a market driven by emotion, clarity is your only real asset. Subscribe to keep your thesis sharp and stay ahead of the macro shift. Most people still think Bitcoin is just digital gold, a hedge against inflation, a store of value, something you buy when you're scared of the dollar.
Cathie Wood thinks the framing is at best incomplete. And at worst, it's costing investors a real understanding of what they actually own. The CEO of ARK Invest, one of the few institutional asset managers who has been publicly bullish on Bitcoin through multiple cycles, sat down and laid out a framework that reframes the entire thesis from the ground up.
She calls it three revolutions in one. And before you roll your eyes at that kind of language, just stick with me. Because what she actually describes is specific, data-backed, and directly relevant to how institutions are thinking about Bitcoin allocation today. Here's the first thing she says. Bitcoin is a new monetary system, not a currency in the traditional sense, a global digital private r u l e s b a s e d monetary system.
The emphasis on rules-based is deliberate in a world where central banks can print, freeze, or devalue at will. A system that operates on transparent immutable rules is a genuinely different kind of asset. That's not a talking point. That's a structural argument. The second thing she says might actually be the most underappreciated part of the thesis.
Bitcoin and crypto, more broadly, is a technolaws layer. Specifically, it's a new layer on top of the internet, one that enables what she calls agentic commerce. Think about what's happening in AI right now. Autonomous agents making decisions, executing tasks, transacting on behalf of users. Those agents need a native payment rail.
They need currencies that exist natively on the internet, not currencies that were designed for physical branches and paper forms and were retrofitted to work online. That's the opening she's describing. And the third revolution is the asset class argument. This is the most important one for anyone thinking about portfolio construction.
The correlation between Bitcoin and every other major asset class is remarkably low. ARK ran the numbers going back to 2019. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold, specifically, is 0.14. On a scale where 1.0 means they move in perfect lockstep, 0.14 means they barely move together at all. For an institutional asset allocator, that number is extremely attractive.
The whole game of portfolio construction is finding assets that don't move together. Because when you combine them, your risk-adjusted return goes up without necessarily increasing your overall exposure to any single risk factor. Bitcoin, according to ARK's data, qualifies better than almost anything else you can add to a traditional portfolio.
That's why institutions are buying Bitcoin, because they believe in the technology. Some of them don't care about the technology at all. They're buying it because the math says it improves the portfolio. Now, Cathie also addressed the biggest fear circling Bitcoin in any given news cycle, and it's the one that causes the most panic selling among people who don't actually understand the timeline.
Quantum computing. The fear is that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could eventually crack Bitcoin's cryptographic security. And the headlines make it sound like that threat is around the corner. ARK's chief futurist, Brett Winton, pulled the actual data on where quantum computing is today, specifically, Google's progress on qubit counts and error rates.
And what he found puts a very different frame on the fear. Under the current pace of development, quantum doesn't become a serious threat to the Bitcoin blockchain until the 2060s. Even if you assume Google doubles its pace of development and hits Moore's law equivalent progress, you're still looking at the mid-2040s at the earliest, two decades away, minimum.
The wallet migrations you've seen from Bitcoin OGs aren't panic. They're prudent. Long-term holders moving to quantum-resistant wallets because they're thinking 10, 15, 20 years ahead. That's not a sign the system is breaking. It's a sign the people who understand Bitcoin best taking the long-term threat seriously while it's still very manageable.
That context matters a lot. Okay. Let's get into the full breakdown with Cathie directly. Crypto, here I think the disconnect and this is also from Big Ideas, is hey, look at what the gold price has done in the last few years, and look at what's happened to Bitcoin. Now, this is a log chart, so um you can see gold has had a massive move to the upside.
This chart ends in at the end of 25, and of course, I think last night we got down to roughly $60,000 in Bitcoin. So, really cut in half since its peak in October. What is going on here? Isn't Bitcoin supposed to be digital gold? If it's digital gold, why isn't it behaving like gold? And a couple of points to make here.
If you do the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, their returns, since 2019, and and I put this in my New Year's letter. You can see the matrix there if you'd like. Um The correlation has been 0.14. One is perfect correlation. And here we are at 0.14, very low, almost no correlation. So, that is very important to understand.
Um what you can also see here, though, is gold tends to precede a big move in Bit in Bitcoin. You can see the circles there, and we'd have a gigantic circle around what has happened recently. Um And and so maybe that will happen again. We actually think it will. I cannot tell you how many bear stories I've heard about Bitcoin in in the last few weeks, last few months.
And just go on to X, and you'll find all kinds of reasons why you must sell Bitcoin. And these are the the periods that are kind of interesting. We post our trading at the end of every day, and you'll say you'll see that we had been nibbling at our crypto-exposed stocks. We didn't know how far this was going to go, and maybe it's not over, not promising that, but um there was so much negative sentiment that I I felt, okay, you know, we need to leg in and lean into this.
If our research is correct, that this um this Bitcoin is three revolutions in one. It's a global digital private, very important, rules-based, even more important, monetary system. And that's a very big idea. Um The second revolution is it is a technology. It's a a new technology. It's a It's really adding another layer, I would say, to the internet so that we have um native currencies native to the internet that will be able to handle agentic commerce and other other such agentic movements taking place out there.
That's a very big idea. And then, uh, and it won't be, of course, just Bitcoin. It'll be Ether, importantly Ether. Uh, Solana. Maybe hyper liquid. We shall see. Um, but what's interesting about this period is the big three have been identified. Uh, and those are Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. You know, the worry historically has been, how many of these things are there going to be?
Is this going to be a very fragmented situation? Uh, and we're learning, uh, we we're learning who the big winners are are going to be, who the big winners are. Uh, and I think that's a very important. And then the third revolution is, this is a new asset class. Bitcoin is leading the way. It is the most secure of all the crypto currencies out there.
Backed by the largest computer network in the world. Uh, and so really an anchor to, um, an asset allocator looking to move into this new world. And why wouldn't an asset allocator do that? Well, if we're right, and well, the it's a fact that at least over the last 5 years, the correlations have been, uh, the correlation has been as low as as 0.14.
Um, the key to successful diversification, for asset allocators, is, um, adding new assets with very low correlation to all of the other assets in the ecosystem. Uh, and, uh, this one qualifies. Uh, why do they want that? It is because with that low correlation, introducing it, um, risk adjusted returns go up over time.
Uh, and so I do think institutions are serious about this new asset class. They may have been reticent uh, to move in because they were hearing about the 4-year cycle, the 4-year cycle. And lo and behold, and uh, I'll I'll hats off to Chris Burniske who, uh, has been, uh, very right in in calling for whether it's the 4-year cycle or whatever, uh, just this downdraft.
Um, and, uh, so it's close to it's closing in on the low point that many, uh, technical analysts are suggesting um, uh, as the place where it should stop. Uh, these the these are very volatile moments, uh, at at at or near the bottom. Um, but, uh, we usually do look back and say, wow, I wish I had caught that low, this V-shaped recovery.
Um, uh, well, has been quite significant. Not promising, uh, uh, I want to make I want to make sure that there are no promises here, but it does seem like the stars are aligning. Uh, and, um, I guess I'll move on to the next one. So, what has been the biggest bugaboo in as it relates to Bitcoin, or the worry that we've heard about more than anything else in the last few weeks, because it's all about, uh, quantum computing.
The last few weeks have been, uh, you know, lots of stories about quantum computing, and I would say, uh, the the large shift in Bitcoin, uh, the OGs selling, uh, or just shifting, uh, wallets to more quantum resistant wallets. Um, so I think that's really, uh, caused a lot of concern. And, uh, here's Michael Saylor's, uh, answer, or I mean, he was very reasonable last night in his discussion around quantum.
He doesn't think it's going to be an issue for 10 years or more. Uh, but he said, here's what we're doing, uh, uh, in terms of our commitment to Bitcoin security. Um, and and so you can see some of those, um, those moves now. But I also wanted to show our research. Again, this is out of big ideas. Uh, and this is when the quantum controversy, uh, had quieted down, uh, last year as it relates to Bitcoin.
Uh, so Brett Winton, uh, in as chief futurist, has, um, has a a big focus on quantum, because we can't miss the next big thing. It's all we do is disruptive innovation. And here I thought was a compelling analysis, uh, based on what has happened with quantum computing so far. And you can Google really leading the charge.
Uh, that little black line on that chart. So, you can see that, um, uh, it has been able to double the number of cubits over 4 years. Which is slower than Moore's law in the semiconductor space. And of course, there there is an error rate consideration lowering that as well over 4 years. Um, so if if Google does not pick up speed, the red line tells you how long it will take Google to and, uh, and quantum computing, uh, to really threaten Bitcoin, the Bitcoin blockchain as we know it now.
Uh, so we go into the 2060s there. Now, if you make the assumption that Google's going to pick up the pace, uh, and that's an interesting assumption, because typically we learn a lot in the early years of a new technology. You know, um, how how quickly are the units increasing and driving costs down.
That's the learning curve associated, uh, with new technologies. Um, but let's assume it assume it does pick up the pace, doubles the pace to Moore's law. Okay, then, uh, we have a problem in the mid-40s. Uh, so I don't want to make light of it. Uh, I do think it has caused movement, uh, among of Bitcoin, between wallets, between and among wallets.
Are they leaving the crypto ecosystem? Some say yes, maybe they're diversifying into other crypto assets as, um, as the DeFi ecosystem evolves here. Uh, I don't know how likely that is, because these are Bitcoin OGs. They've been there uh, forever, and, um, so we'll see. Uh, maybe they're diversifying because they were hodlers, and now they're 10, 15 years older, and they have families, and, you know, their risk profiles have gone down.
Um, they should they should diversify. Any financial advisor would say so. Um, we'll find out, uh, but, um, I thought Brett added some good perspective here. Let's pull this together. Cathie Wood's Bitcoin thesis has three layers, and each one stands on its own. The first is the monetary argument. Bitcoin is a rules-based global private monetary system.
In a world where monetary policy is increasingly unpredictable, that structure has real value. Not speculative value. Structural value. The second is the technology argument. Crypto assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum chief among them, are becoming the native financial layer of the internet. As AI agents start transacting autonomously, they need a payment rail that wasn't designed for a pre-internet world.
That demand isn't hypothetical. It's already being built. The third is the portfolio argument. A 0.14 correlation to gold, near zero correlation to most traditional assets. For any serious allocator trying to improve risk-adjusted returns, Bitcoin checks a box that almost nothing else can check. And on quantum, the timeline is measured in decades, not years.
The OGs moving wallets are being careful, not scared. There's a difference. Here's what I want to leave you with. The reason Cathie Wood's framework is worth understanding isn't because ARK is always right. They're not. No one is. It's because the argument is structural. It doesn't depend on a bull cycle.
It doesn't depend on a specific price target. It doesn't even depend on what the Fed does next month. If Bitcoin is genuinely three revolutions in one, then the question isn't whether to pay attention to it. The question is how much you actually understand about what you own, or what you're choosing not to own.
That's the work. If this kind of breakdown is useful to you, subscribe and hit the bell. We go through the institutional research, so you don't have to track down every briefing yourself. See you in the next one.
Comments 0