저자: JaysonCasper · 외국인
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FOMC 금리 동결 예상 속 변동성 매매를 강조하며 비트코인 단기 방향을 분석. 비트코인은 약 73.5k 지지/저항 전환선 이탈 여부가 핵심이며, 지지 실패 시 60k 하락 가능성을 언급. 유가 강세와 지정학 리스크(전쟁 종료 시 비트코인 상승·유가 하락 가능성)를 언급하나 확신은 없다고 함. 발언 대부분이 스폰서 홍보와 잡담이라 자산별 예측은 제한적임.
다듬은 글
That's the Hello. All right, y'all. We are live on this beautiful Wednesday afternoon. God bless everybody in the name of Jesus, Yeshua, the Messiah. I pray you are blessed in many ways as this is the most important FOMC in history from the perspective of Jerome Powell. This is Jerome Powell's last stand.
This is Jerome Powell's last night. This is our last night with Jerome Powell. Guys, I hate change and it is sad to see my good friend Jerome Powell fade away into the darkness as today we are awaiting for the FOMC statement and the federal funds rate and the FOMC press conference. It's a conference where people will press the different buttons that cause the money printing to go up and to go down.
the tightening and the loosening of the economy. As we can see here, we are expecting zero. I mean, we're expecting nothing to happen, guys. Nothing to happen. We are expecting interest rates to stay the exact same. 3.75 beats per second. I mean, inflation percent. I mean, remember, this isn't financial advice.
I'm just the guy on the internet on a treadmill in a dirty garage trading Bitcoin and crypto. Now, here's the thing, guys. All right. I do not think that we are going to Let me Let me preface this all by saying the following. I am not interested in this press conference in this rate decision because I I don't think it's going to make Bitcoin do something.
I'm excited because when we get the announcement, it always injects some volatility into the market. And this volatility very well may give us a juicy trade setup. And I'm looking to put hundreds of thousands of dollars onto the market during FOMC. In fact, why not? Why not? Why not just throw money around during one of the most volatile portions of price action in all of history?
All right, we're going to be taking a look here. We're going to be seeing what's going to happen as the Bitcoin price is coming down to a pretty interesting area of support. You can see the Fibonacci golden pocket. In fact, yesterday we got a nice bounce from the Fibonacci golden pocket right here. We got a move up to the PC of the range where we rejected and now we've given it all back.
All right. And if you're in the Casper Cruip Discord, yesterday we longed it right from the low and of course that's been closed out, guys. We made I made about about $2,000. All right. Locked in about 2,300 bucks, give or take, and then lost about 400. So, a little bit under two grand we made in the Casper Crew VIP Discord where we give the trade setups in the moment, guys.
in the moment as we were taking the trades like seen here like seen right here as well where I told everyone I've longed it and like seen here as well where I took the juicy long trade where we took the juicy short trade which we are still in right now up $10,475. All right, big shout out to the sponsors of the channel by the way.
First of all, Antarctic Decentralized Exchange, Blofin, KSEX, which by the way, guys, KSEX is offering right now the juiciest deal on fees, plus up to $21,000 bonus. All right, make sure to check it out if interested. As we are getting ready for the biggest FOMC of our lives, we have to give a big old major shout to everybody right now in the chat.
First of all, a big old major shout to mmmmmmlybad. God bless you. Major shout out to Crypto Coons holding it down with the wrench. Cryptocoun the best YouTube and Discord moderator in the world. Big shout out to Max Longs. It's just going to down down then down again. Big shout out to Moonshine. What if the new guy steps in and lowers it after all?
Interesting stuff. Shout out to Bullish on Parade. What's going on my man? Big shout out to Adam Thomas 1348 and preparing for war. Good riddance Powell. We're going to have a pow-wow in honor of Powell today. Shout out to adventurous strangler. I'd love to see him say f you Trump and mic drop at the end.
Uh yeah, actually that would be really funny if that actually happened. I wish it would, but it won't. Shout out to Prime Vibes 3. Shout out to Juan Estrada PCL. Shout out to ESKR Finger Red number one. What's going on, bro? Shout out to Starfire Crypto Subas for Crew. Shout out to JW Spiker. Anyone's thoughts on gold futures.
We're going to be taking a look at gold during the uh rate decision as well as the press conference. We're looking at stocks. We're going to be looking at the stock market. We're going to be looking at gold. We're going to be looking at silver. We're going to be looking at crypto. Rates will say the same.
Yes, they will. They will. They will. But we're still going to get an injection of volatility. Volatility. Bro didn't reduce rates cuz he can't trade. Lol. I mean, I think we're just I I think we're just we're just in a season of paused rates. I think they will come down eventually. Shout out to Danny.
says, "Yo, Jason, my Kubano Armano C Senor." Shout out to Anhill Garcia. Pump song incoming. I hope so. Shout out to Ricky 3641 and Spicy Noodle. What is going on with oil? I mean, don't pop your boil with oil. It could get infected. Let's check out oil. Looks like oil is getting a little bit of a move up right now.
Would you look at this? About 107 on oil futures here. Yeah, looks like it's getting a move to the upside. Maybe this is a giant bull flag that's about to break out. I mean, honestly, if oil does break out of this bull flag, guys, that's that's going to mean some I mean, it's already pretty bad in in parts of Eastern and Western Europe.
I mean, in America, it's really not that bad with the oil prices. Now, I'm not saying this is going to happen, okay? Let's actually let's turn it off log. Let's not go crazy here. Let's not let's not go crazy. Let's just see like if this is a bull flag that breaks out, man, we could be seeing like it can you even imagine that?
That would be crazy. That would be unprecedented. That would be something that would Oh, man. You know, we haven't seen Have we ever seen oil that high? I mean, we back in the 2008, we were at 147. Yeah, I remember this, man. I was in high school when this happened. I just got my driver's license and gas was like $5.50 a gallon.
Remember, I go to the gas station with like $3, you know, filling it up with $3, you know, back in those days, those were desperate times, man. You know, those were desperate times. Um, that's all you had was $3, you know, going scraping scraping under the couch cushions to try and find some money. I mean, we could come back up toward that area if this bull flag breaks out.
And honestly, you know, I don't mean to be that guy, but you know what? If this is a bull flag, too, right? Can you imagine that? You know, just thought experiments here, guys. Just thought experiments here. Like, nothing too serious. Nothing too serious. Not saying we're going to see gas at oil at $200 a barrel, but I mean, here's the thing.
Like, there's some messed up people out there that really want to cause an energy crisis. You know, the Great Reset is still on the agenda, guys. You know, so we got to get our carbon emissions down to zero. And what better way than uh to make it just unaffordable, right? But anyway, we're not going to wax conspiratorial during this video.
Um, the price in Europe is fine. I don't know. I have a friend in Bulgaria who it things are very expensive right now. So, I don't know. I can only go based on personal accounts. I have not honestly listened to the news about any of this stuff to be honest with you. So, if you have an eyewitness testimony, send it my way cuz that's honestly the only thing I care about is people in the area telling me stuff.
All right. Um, yeah. I've heard stuff like this too about the explosions. Look, I don't know what's true. I don't know. All I know is honestly right now, as far as I'm concerned, as far as my little bubbles going, things are just heading on as normal. All right, let's see. You are from Bulgaria. Shout out to all my Bulgarians in the house.
Shout out to Harry Haza. How much does TA apply to the price of oil? Well, I will be honest with you and tell you blatantly that I have not ever traded oil. All right? So, I cannot answer that question for you. All right. I cannot answer that question for you. Cryptocoun says gas is $4.30 in Ohio. All right.
All right. All right. Well, let's see what happens here with the Bitcoin price. Now, again, speaking of Bitcoin and speaking of in 15 minutes, Jerome Powell will make a decision. We need to be aware of this with with the Bitcoin chart. Okay, right now we are in fact uh breaking out of a major support resistance flip.
A major resistance. We go to our weekly chart on Bitcoin and the major resistance that we are currently breaking out of guys is going to be this trend line right here. Pull it from the tippity. You can see that we are pretty much confirming multiple weekly candles above this level. All right, this is a major breakout.
If we put it on log scale, it changes a little bit. All right, we'll put it on log scale real quick. Now, look at this. I just want to point out the fact that not only are we breaking out of this massive trend line to the downside, but we are also breaking out of the value area high of this range at around $73.5,000.
As it stands right now, if we are going to see higher prices, which a lot of people are calling for, well, if we're going to dump a little bit, this is the area that needs to hold. All right? because this is going to show for certain that the market does not consider this expensive Bitcoin anymore, but the market considers this cheap Bitcoin.
If we come down to the $73,000 zone and see a fast buyback, this is a very bullish back test of a massive multi-month resistance, right? So, we are breaking out and back testing two major resistances at the same time. If this happens, however, if we cannot hold above the level, all right, if we just can't hold it, well, guess what?
Then that is very bearish. It's a massive fake out. And I expect us to drop down probably towards the bottom of the range towards $60,000. So, this is a very key area. And again, I am not the one saying that I'm hoping that Jerome Powell's decision pumps Bitcoin. I'm not expecting a rate cut. I'm not expecting a rate hike.
What I am expecting is short-term volatility which will culminate in the trend decision. Right? I think I'm hoping this acts as a catalyst for the rest of the week to either give us our big drop down toward this area to either look for the bounce or look for the rejection or maybe we do just get a bounce up today and start to come up to higher prices.
Right? So, in general, right now, I am looking for Bitcoin to come back towards $80,000 because I do not feel like we finished this move to the upside. It does not look done. An ugly double top. Didn't even take the highs on all exchanges or I'm looking for Bitcoin to eventually maybe come down to 75K, maybe come down to around 72, 73K to look for a bounce.
All right. And I'm hoping that what happens today will felicitate felicitate facilitate felicitate facilitate facilitate the move. All right. Big shout out to Akamedia. Sir, Bitcoin bullish or shall I quit my position as I'm in position with bullish? Well, I'm in a position with bullish, too, man. All right.
And I'm not quitting. I'm not quitting my bullish position. All right. My bullish position is currently up right now $43,000 unrealized $26,000 realized. All right, so essentially I mean we're around 70k altogether and I am like you know like I just showed on the chart unless we lose unless we lose this purple box.
I'm keeping it open and I'm in a bullish position looking for more bullish. Yes, we're breaking down from the trend line here. All right, I'm not going to say that this is the most bullish thing in the world. The fact that we're breaking down from this baby. All right, but again, remember the breakout and back test of the support resistance flip at around 7273.
That is the line in the sand. And yes, this is looking scary right now. I'm not going to lie. You know, this is looking scary. But, uh, sometimes you just got to lock it in and let it ride. Lock it in and let it ride. All right. You gotta lock it in and let it ride, you know. Lock it in and let it ride.
You know, lock it in and let it ride. You guys know what I'm saying? Yeah. Lock it in and let it ride. Know what I'm saying? You got to lock it in and let it ride. Don't be playing. Lock it in and let it ride. I could see you out there looking slide. Lock it in and let it ride like you're on the water slide.
Don't try and hide cuz you know you're looking slide. Get a piece of pie cuz by the time you get back to the charts, we will start to fly to the upside, baby. Bitcoin going to pump. Jerome Powell got fired by Trump. His term is over. Now we got the new guy coming in cutting us a slice of the pie. American pie.
You know we like to eat it. High carbohydrates go straight to the feet. And you're up here. You're on the treadmill. You're going uphill, my dear. Let's get Bill. We got the bill in the house about to pass. We're up 10K. You know we got the gas. We got a fart from behind. Here it comes. Can you smell the slime?
Jerome Powell coming out. Had a smile. But now it is a pout cuz the candles turning blue and then they turning purple. Jason Casper such a nerd they call him Steve Urkel. Bitcoin about to rocket tippy top it then we about to fly upright to the next golden pocket. We out here fighting bad guys like Sonic vers Robotnik.
We're coming right bound to support. Can you spot it? If we pull the fib from the low to the high, you could see if we bounce, price is about to fly. We came here to the golden pocket. Come up, reject it. Can you spot it? Then we drop it. We got the 786. Market makers trying to liquidate. They licking their lips cuz they know the retail about to short the bottom about to absorb all the shorts.
Can you even spot them? Pump it up. Make a nice triple top. Market makers coming in to hit the spot. Then we dump it back down. Can you hear the sound? long trades liquidated right into the ground. Boom. You know, that's what I'm talking about. Um, wow. Look at this chart. It's a little bit messy. If you walk it in and let it ride, in my case, walk away and check the maple trees for sap.
Yeah. Uhhuh. Your value area high is at 72k. Yeah. It depends on what exchange you're on, my friend. It depends on what exchange you're on. All right. So, right now on Antarctic, it's around 72. On VBE, it's around 73.5. All right. We got a lot of different things to happen, guys. 10 minutes. until Jerome Pow Jerome Pal is going to be coming out.
All right. Now, is this a bottom here? Honestly, I hope not. I I I do hope we get a dump upon the release of this news. Um, you know what I'm saying? Um, Mike Mo, mind the farm again. Shout out to Mike Miko. Shout out to Zema X. I'm always on the farm, you know. Can we have more trading and less hippity hoppity?
No. No. No, we can't. The hippity hoppity. That's what That's what keeps us going all day and all night, baby. All right. Yeah. About 1,000 people watching and only four likes. What the heck? What the actual what the actual, you know? Yeah. I hope we get a dump and pump upon uh Here's what I really hope happens, guys.
I hope we get a dump and then we get a pump and then we either get a dump or flip into support and pump. All right, so let's see what happens. I'm going to try and see if I can trade this this juicy re this juicy. Let's see what happens in eight minutes, guys. Eight minutes. I got butterflies in me a stomach ago.
All right, seven minutes and six minutes and 59. Smash up the likes, guys. Smash them up. All right. Big shout out to the Casper crew. All right. The best trading community in the world. We're Myself and three other instructors are live trading multiple times a day, telling you what we're doing, giving our setups, telling you when we're going in, all that stuff.
Telling you when we're taking profit and all that stuff. All right, best dang trading community in the world. It's $2 a day at Jason Caspertrading.com. All right, big shout out to Antarctic, Blowfin, KSEX, and Yubit. Also got to give a major shout out to Kleinfunding. They've got their juicy, well, actually, they got their juicy 15% discounts in the description on these funded accounts.
Crypto prop firm, they got 15% discounts on all this stuff. Check it out if you're interested. All right. All right. Here we go. 7 minutes. Not even that. The countdown. It's the final countdown. 6 minutes. 5 minutes. 6 minutes and 01. 6 minutes on the dot. 5 minutes and 57 seconds, guys. You guys feel that?
Is it hot in here or is it just me? Is it hot in here or is it just me? Man, I cannot wait to see what's going to happen. All right. Big shout out to Vegas Claw. Shout out to Exzma X who says, "The community is honestly the best thing I did within crypto." Well, that's awesome. You know, that's awesome.
That is awesome. Big shout out to Spicy Noodle. If we get news of the war ending, that will pump Bitcoin and dump oil. I feel it coming soon. That would be awesome. I hope so. What's my average position size? Anywhere between 200,000 and a million. Depends on my stop loss, man. Depends on my stop loss, you know.
How much am I risking per trade? On average around5 or $6,000 around five or 6K. That's my average. All right. Yeah. Look, Jack B comes for the hippity hoppity. All right. Paradigm minor is going long. Let's see what happens here, man. We got five minutes. Five menutos. Let's put on market cipher B here.
Man, oh man. I mean, money flows coming down on the 1 hour. Money flow is coming up on the 24 minute. Let's see what happens. Let's see what happens. Honestly, let's see what happens, man. We got four minutes left. We got four minutes left. O the 12minute looking super suspicious doesn't want to do the dishes.
You can always tell when she's looking suspicious when she doesn't want to do the dishes. We're going to be eating from paper plates for months, guys. 12minute looking suspicious. No doing the dishes. The 24-minute looking pretty nice. The 6 minute I mean honestly the spinach looks like she's doing the dishes.
She has mad riches on the 6 minute. This is crazy. I don't even know what I'm saying. We got about 3 minutes and 43 seconds left on the clock before an inspike of volatility comes. I can't even take the suspense is killing me. My last time to see Jerome Powell ever in my life. Very sad thing for me.
I love Jerome Powell. You guys know he's one of my favorite people in the world. Good old Jerome Powell. Good old JP. Um what? 230 now? No way. No way. Nah, hang on. You guys are trolling me. Y'all are trolls. Let's see this. Nah, y'all are trolling. You're trolling your boy Jason Casper. Let's see what happens.
Oh, wait. It's 2:30. Wait a second. The press conference is at 2:30. Yeah, the press conference is at 2:30, guys. But the statement is at 2:00 in 2 minutes and 40 seconds. Come on, guys. Get with the dang program. How many FOMC's have we been through? How many FOMC's have we been through? Path me 75.
Come on, Path me. Big shout out to Jesse Gillick. How did I know you were doing dishes? Cuz, bro, I just know. Oh, I always do the dishes when I listen to people when people talk about crypto. Come on, guys. How many dang press conferences and FOMC's have we been through? You know, this is our last one.
This your last chance to get it right. The statements at 2, the press conference is at 2:30 where he comes out, people ask him questions, and he says, "I don't know. We'll have to wait and see. We'll just have to wait and see." He says, they ask, "So, how's inflation?" He's like, "I don't know. We'll just have to wait and see." You know, we'll have to wait and see, right?
Good old drone pal. In fact, I love I love the way drone pal answers all those questions the same way I do as a crypto YouTuber. Is Bitcoin going to pump or dump? Well, I just have to wait and see. We'll just have to wait and see. Here we go. 2 minutes, baby. I'm feeling it. I'm feeling something. I'm feeling something here.
It is the final countdown. Am I longing? Not yet. I'm not longing yet. We got to wait. We got 1 minute here. We got 30 seconds. All right, let's see what happens. All right, here we go. Got our first move to the upside. Oh my goodness. Big massive juicy blue. Big massive juicy blue coming on in, baby.
Oh my Oh my goodness. We're pumping. Now we're dumping. All right, let's see what happens here. Let's see what happens here. All right. No change. Just as expected. Just as expected. All right. So, we're probably going to make our way back down towards the lows in my opinion. Let's see. I think we're going to make our way back down toward the low.
Let's see if we can't do it. Let's see if we can't do it, baby. All right, we got a little bit of a pump. All right, we got a little bit of a pump here. A little bit of a pump. All right, let's see what we got. Let's see what we got. We got a little bit of a pump here. All right. A little bit rainy out today, guys.
It is a little bit rainy out today. All right, so we're starting to get a little bit back of a move back down. All right, we're up 10 grand on the short trade. We're getting that move back down. Let's see if we can't come all the way down to 756. All right, 756. That's what we're waiting for. Felipe says we're going to zero.
I don't know if we're going to zero. No, my Come on, Path My List. I don't know how else to say it. Path my There's two There's two events here, okay bro? First of all, the federal funds rate officially comes out at 2 o'clock. It's already out. Okay, they've already made the decision not to cut rates.
It's official now. Now, in half an hour at 2:30, that's the press conference. Then he's going to talk about why they didn't cut rates. All right? He's going to say a whole bunch of nothing. And then a whole bunch of people are going to ask him a whole bunch of nothing. He's going to say, "We'll have to wait and see.
We'll have to wait and see. We'll have to wait and see. We'll have to wait and see." Then Twitter and all these other people are going to latch on to a few things he says, and the internet's going to get their Jerome Powell an analysis on point. All right? Then the internet's going to tell us whether he was hawkish or dovish.
And that is what all these things together in the right order is what we're waiting for, man. All right. There's a lot of stuff to wait for here. All right. Hold your horses. Path my hold your horses, my friend. We got to hold your horses, Pathf. Pathf. Don't frontun the press conference, my man. Got to give a big shout out to PathMai.
God bless you. Path my Yeah. Did I short? No. I I haven't taken any trades here. All right. I wanted my initial thoughts before I even did this stream was is I'm going to counter trade the first move, but I forgot to do it. So, I didn't short that. But, I am looking to come down toward this area around here.
Hopefully, we don't get malaria from the area. All right, we'll see what we can get from here. All right, we'll see what we can get from here. Let's check out the one minute. Let's see what we can get from here. Now, I'm still in this juicy short trade up $10,300 from the trade setup we gave in the moment in the Casper Crew VIP Discord.
So, I'm not in any rush to take a trade, right? I kind of want to wait for a good setup here. So, let's see what we can get. All right, let's see what we can get. It's raining outside. I'm a little bit wet, but let's see what we can get. Are you kidding me? No way. Trump is meeting with the Aremis astronauts right now at the White House during the press conference.
That's crazy, man. That is crazy. All right, let's go down to the one minute time frame here. All right, I think we're coming down, guys. I think we're coming down. All right. How's ETH looking? You sold all of it. All of it. I mean, it's looking the same as Bitcoin, guys. Honestly, it's looking the same as Bitcoin.
You know, we will get malaria from the area, says Max Longs. I can't believe that. Do you dare me to speak as an auctioneer? I've done it before, especially during FOMC. I've done it. Yeah. But uh for some reason, guys, just not feeling it right now. But we are going to go for the low. It looks like Little [ __ ] I heard her noticed a rise in ticks and the rumors about ticks with a star on it to get you sick and un able to eat red meat.
I'm pretty sure that's just official now that that Lyme disease was engineered in a lab and got out, right? Isn't that like legit news now? But yeah, there's a really bad tick season this year. In fact, this year alone, I have had three ticks. Uh, as opposed to previous years, zero. So, it's a bad year for ticks, which is strange since it was a very cold winter.
So, I'm not sure, but yeah, who knows? Um, shout out to uh my man Buddha and Throbin Ding-Dong, who says, "This is your government. You are being rescued. Do not resist. 40% Bitcoin downtrend now starting. Let's get into it. Max Longs, but you eat limes every day. Are you safe? No. Limes are very dangerous.
Limes are super dangerous. Shout out to Jesse Gillick. He says, "Smash the likes everyone. I'm watching y'all who didn't hit it already. God bless you, bro. Thank you so much for the super chat. What do I think about peptides? I think you shouldn't take them." All right. All right? Unless you're morbidly obese, about to die of being fat, or you have diabetes and you really need it, or if you're injured and you need it.
But look, here's the thing. Everything in life has a give and take. All right? You feel good now. It's going to take from something else. All right? Don't become dependent on the pharmaceutical industrial complex. All right? the the the the number one thing everyone should be focusing on when it comes to recovery and health and all this stuff is what God gave us.
Food, sleep, sunshine, relationships. I mean, unless you have a medical condition that requires some kind of pharmaceutical intervention, I don't care. Yeah, I know it's just a whole bunch of amino acids or whatever. I'm sorry. It's not my thing. Not into it. All right, let's see. We're taking the low.
We've taken the low. Oh my. Oh my goodness. Holy macaroni and cheese. [snorts] Quadruple cheese. Mis amigos. Quadruple cheese. Oh my Oh my goodness. Oh my, this is insane. Quadruple cheese. Quadruple cheese. Look at this crazy candle. Oh my goodness. I can't believe this. I can't believe this. We're up $12,000 on the short.
I can't believe it. 12,000. Oh, this is crazy. This is crazy. Oh man, this is insane. Wow. Can you guys believe such a thing? Oh my goodness. All right, I'm going to long it. I'm sorry. I'm crazy. Let's see what happens. I've just taken a long dong ding-dong. This is crazy. Jason Casper, what a fool.
What an idiot didn't go to school. Oh my goodness. Come on. We got the blue candle of hope, baby. Oh, come on. Oh no. It's turning back to purple. Oh my goodness. Oh my goodness. Come on, baby. What's going on? Ah, what's going on? Itty bitty. Anybody? My goodness. Can you guys believe such a thing?
Can you guys believe such a thing? Look at that. Look at that. If that's not a knife catch, guys, I don't know what is. Yeah, baby. We prove it. We pro. Yeah. Here we go, man. That's crazy. Wow. Would you look at that? Would you look at that? Oh my goodness. Macaroni and cheese, baby. Woo! Macaroni and cheese.
Here we go, baby. Relax, Jason. Relax. Remember, when you get too crazy, just deep plunges into the face. Deep plunges into the face. Just relax, JC. What's the worst that could happen, man? What's the worst that could happen? You're right. What is the worst that could happen? Oh man, look at that, guys.
Look at that. Look at that. Oh man. Oh my goodness. Let's pump it, baby. Come on. Come on. I think we can get a little bit more from this. I think we can get a little bit more. Let's see. Let's see. We'll wait and see. We'll wait and see. We're trying to bounce from the 786. Worth a shot. It's worth a shot.
Let's see. Oh no. Oh no. Oh no. Oh no. Oh no. Relax, Jason. Don't make them put you back in the institution, man. You're right. You're right. Why am I talking to myself? Crap. Okay, let's go. Let's see what happens here, man. Oh, man. This is the scariest thing I've ever done in my life, guys. Um, man, the adrenaline right now, guys, I can't even talk straight because the adrenaline is so much, honestly.
I can't. The adrenaline is going crazy right now. You know, this is dangerous. Don't try this at home. This is not financial advice. I This is not financial advice, guys. All right. This is definitely not financial advice. But I have to be honest when I say when I look at the 24-minute market cipher B.
I mean, we're out of support. We've got bullish divergences to money flow curving from the purple into the blue. What's she going to do from the purple to the blue? What's she going to do? You know, from the purple to the blue. I'm freaking out. What you going to do? Hey yo, what you going to do, man?
Bitcoin from the purple to the blue. Now sit back, relax. I'mma take you to the school. Let me tell you what we do. Every day making profits. Don't you know Jcast the boy is so cool. We came down to the support, the 786. All the shorts they get hurt. They short the bottom. But you can see if you can spot them.
Bullish divergence. The butt cheeks don't stop them. Uh, we got the juicy on the left, so booty skinny on the right, just around the tushi, man. And I don't even know, but we came to the 78 sit down below. Now we pumping up $700. So dang bullish, baby. Let me hear you holler. J Casper, we marketing at the exact bottom.
Oh my goodness, what a knife cash. Can you top him up? Now the candle's turning blue. The Bitcoin price about to show you what she going to do. Coming out soon at a theater near you. Jerome Powell for the last time. It's true. Yeah, cuz the boy ain't the chair. No more too embarrassed in his underwear on the floor.
We're coming back up now. Don't be scared. Jason C coming in the bears. Best beware. Oh no, another purple candle making me so nervous. I'm spoiling my sandals cuz I'm pooping my pants and it's running down my leg straight to my sandals and I can't catch a break. Eating eggs cuz I love cholesterol. Jason Casper running naked down the hall.
Hopefully he got a cough. He's taking holes. Got the menthols in his throat. He wants it all. Oh my. We got the overalls. We're coming out like a nice overhaul. We're getting out like we want to score, y'all. Strover like Grover from Sesame Street. Man, you better hear it all. Look at this. Come back to fill the gap.
Then we about to bounce up now. What about that? Oh no, we coming down. About to lose money. About to get wrecked. Boy, this ain't funny. So stop laughing and stop trashing. You better shut your mouth and keep it capped in. If I get a loss if I lose my money, hopefully I'll have to start running away.
Too embarrassed to show my face on the web. Jay Casper, you know he likes to stay dread. Got the dreads on my head looking red like I want to take it out on my good friend Ted. Oh no, we're coming back down, baby. Oh my goodness. We got a big dirty per coming out trying to give you the herp. Big dirty p to give you the hoop.
Oh man. I can't believe this. I can't believe this. Let's see. Let's see what happens. All right, guys. Let's see what happens here. All right, let's go back to uh the buy bit chart. Let's go to the one minute. Man, even the one minute looks nice here, man. I'm not going to lie. The one minute looking pretty nice.
Cold as ice. Six minute looking true. Candle's about to turn blue. Let's go to the 30 minute time frame. All right, guys. By the way, this ain't no financial advice. If you get wrecked because of me, remember I'm wrapping on a treadmill. All right, man. I mean, we don't have obviously this is crazy in one candle.
We just come all the way down yonder. Come on, big juicy blue Bitcoin price about to show you what she's going to do. Come on. We're back up again with all our good friends. Check the order flow. Check the order flow. Yeah, let's check the order flow. Let's see what happens. Good. Good call, my man.
Good call, my man. Let's check the order flow. Uh here we go. Longs wrecked. A lot of shorts opened at the top, though. A lot of people shorted the top there. Let's squeeze them. You know what I mean? Let's squeeze the shorts. Let's squeeze those dang shorts, baby. Can I see who did it? Yeah, you can see who did it.
If you zoom in, it shows you their names. It was S. Just kidding. I don't know. I don't know who did it, man. Who done did it? Who done did it? We're trying to get a move back up like the coffee in the cup. All right. Trying to get a move back up like the coffee in the cup. Let's see what happens here.
O man. This is some serious business. All right. Some serious business right here, guys. This ain't no joke. This ain't no joke. The 12minute looking shady. All right. I'll be honest. The 24 minutes looking juicy as all get out. Real juicy. Mad juicy. I mean, this, look at this in the 24-minute. Looking good.
We got another green dot here. We're going straight to Saturn. All right, we got a 10-minute candle close above the value area low. We got 5 minutes left. Oh, wait. I'm sorry. That's not a 10-minute close. We got 1 minute left until a 10-minute close above the level. Potential bullish divergence. All base in no trouble.
We got the 5minut time frame. Money flow coming up. Price action juicy like coffee in the cup. Jason, Jason Casper, why are you talking like that? Jason, you must be so stupid if you think Donald Trump can read your super chats. Jason Casper is such an NPC, you know, stuck up in the stuck up in the right left paradigm.
Super chatting Donald Trump. All right. Uh-oh. Preparing for war doesn't like the low. It's not what I like to hear, bro. We didn't take the low. What low are you talking about? Uhoh. Preparing for war is not bullish. Freaking me out. Oh, this low. But we did hit the 4hour order block value area low 786, you know.
But we did hit the 4hour level, right? We did hit the 4 hour level. Man, preparing for war. You're getting me nervous, bro. I think I'm going to have to FOMO out. Preparing for war. I think I'm going to have to FOMO out, bro. It's freaking me out right now. Oh my. It's looking awful. It's looking awful.
[snorts] Come on, Biddy. Look, guys. We got about 11 minutes until Jerome Powell comes out of the closet with his press conference. All right. Uh-oh. A bear flag. Oh no, it's a bear flag. Oh no. No, look, you got to lose big in order to win small in this game, guys. Maybe that's not quite what they said, but look, if you want to win small, you got to lose big, baby.
All right, let's see what happens here. O, man, we should have closed it for a $700 gain, huh? Man, we should have closed it. Man, we should have closed it. The regret, the fear, the anxiety, the regret, the fear, the anxiety right now. Why did I have to long the exact bottom? Why couldn't I have waited for confirmation to long 80k?
My goodness, it's really freaking me out. Front ran the 786. Lol. We did on Antarctic. Yeah, onet. We tapped right into it, man. Vbit's the one I care about. I'm not trying to tap anyone's 786 unless it's Bibbitz. Bybit's the only 786 I want to tap. Let me tell you those other exchanges, you start tapping their 786 and you're going to get some kind of weird disease.
All right? Bybit has that clean price action. Let me tell you. All right? So, don't all lol over here on your shady weird exchanges. All right? Bybit's clean, baby. You know, here we go. We're starting to pump, baby. We're up $1,000. Oh my goodness. [snorts] Look at this. Can you believe what I see?
Can you see what I see? It's working, man. This is what euphoria feels like, guys. This is what euphoria feels like. Here we go, baby. Yeah, we're dumping a little bit. I see it. I see it. I see it. All right, let's go to the one minute. What the heck is up with the chart? Don't tell me there's a Oh, okay.
There we go. Three says, "The government controls everything, even Bitcoin." Dime to wreck. Maybe maybe the Maybe the government controls Bitcoin. I don't know. Who cares? Who cares? They can. Who cares? Who cares? We're We're here to make money, man. We're here to make money. All right. We're here to make money and then dip out.
Dip out for when they un unveil the mark of the beast, then we're out, baby. In the meantime, we're just here to have a good time. Make a little bit of moola. A little bit of moola. Moola la. All right. Maybe we lose all the moola. Maybe we lose it all. Guys, we're back testing. No, we're not back testing nothing.
Hang on. Let's remove this. I mean, look, that's a pretty nice level right there. Okay, we got eight minutes until JP comes out. He's going to start talking. We're going to start seeing some action, baby. Get ready for action. All right, in T minus 10, we're getting ready for action. Once we get the 6minute green dot, we're going to launch off into the stratosphere straight through the thermosphere.
Don't worry, I know what you're thinking. Our aircraft is made of tin foil. There's no way it can withstand the heat of the thermosphere. Don't worry, guys. Anything's possible with AI nowadays. We can make it through. We're up $1,200. Oh. Pizza pie. Mama mia. The pizza pie is bumping. Mama mia. The pizza pie is a bumping.
As Jerome Powell is getting ready to come out, the pizza pie are pumping. All right. Yeah, the guy at the conference mining Bitcoin for 20 years. He's the real Satoshi for sure. I know. Aren't you sad, Splash? That this is the last time that JP is going to speak. It is sad. It really is sad. I'm not going to lie.
Um, let's see what we got going on here. Now, I didn't hear about him. I didn't hear about the guy, but you're in the Jordan Crypt crew. He's like you, Master Cipher B. Shout out to Jordan. Shout out to all the YouTube channels out there doing this thing. All right. You're right. It's in special tin foil.
The kind that can protect your brain from the aliens in that special tin foil. Paradigms up $15,000 in profit. My goodness. That's crazy. That's crazy. All right, guys. We got six minutes until JP comes out. Six minutes. All right. Big shout out to all the lifers in the house. Big shout out to Crypto Lifer.
Let's see what happens here, guys. All right, this is a little speculative, baby. All right, but again, we came down to a support the 786. The 4 hour even has bullish divergence potentially. The one hour has bullish divergence. The 24m minute bullish divergence. All right. The 12minut looking kind of shady, not going to lie.
12minut, eh, dancing on the line. Nonetheless, still there. The 6 minute, it's looking nice. If we get the green dot. All right, we get the green dot. All right, the 3 minutes looking kind of nice. Let's see what we can get here. Four minutes until JP comes out the house. The house will be open and he will come out the door.
Sit back, relax while we mop the floor. Sit back, relax while we mop the floor. Yeah. Yeah. JP speech summarize. We'll have to wait. We'll have to wait and see on the data. We'll have to wait and see on the data. What about gold? Let's see what gold done did. All right, let's see what gold done did here.
Gold took a big old dump. Wow. Little bit of a pump and now dumping back down. Nothing too crazy. Didn't take the low like Bitcoin took the low. And I do have to say gold does not look ultra bullish on the 4hour time frame. Here we have slight divergence but money flow looking weak. Check out the 1 hour on gold.
Same deal. Slight divergence but weak money flow. All right. Let's check out the uh S&P 500 futures. Okay. So S&P 500 is also attempting right now to get a local swing failure pattern of the low here. Let's see what happens. All right. See what happens here. It's It's an attempt. All right. Come on, Jerome Powell.
Come on, Jerome. Come on, Jerome. We need you to pump it for us. We need you to pump it for us. O, come on, Jerome. We need to pump Man, it's not looking the best, is it? Guys, I should have known it was weak. Why did you long, Jason? You idiot. Crap. Oh my goodness, guys. I cannot believe what I'm seeing.
I can't believe what I'm seeing here. All my hopes and dreams are gone, lost forever. My only hope is in two minutes when Jerome Powell opens his mouth to flabbergast all the Flanigans. We need Jerome Powell to come flabbergast all the Flanigans. Let's see. Come on JP, we need you to flabbergast the Flanigans.
Come on JP, come flabbergast the flanigans for us, my friend. All right, we need Jerome Pal to come flabbergast the flanigans. We got one minute until the flanigans get flabbergasted on JP. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Come flabbergast. My plan against Jerome Pal. Come flabbergast my plan against Jerome Pal.
Come flabbergast my plan against Jerome Pal. Oh, it's his last day. Suspense. My goodness. Come flabbergast my flanigans. What is going on? He's out already. He's already gone. What is Oh, here he comes. Good afternoon. Good afternoon. Uh my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefits benefit of the American people.
The US economy has been expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation has moved up and is elevated in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.
We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum employment and 2% inflation goals. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook, and we will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
I'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments. Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Consumer spending has been resilient and business fixed investment has continued to expand at a brisk pace. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak.
In the labor market, the unemployment rate was 4.3% in March and has changed little in recent months. Job gains have remained low. A good part of the slowing in the pace of the job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation.
Though labor demand has clearly softened as well. Other indicators including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth generally show little change in recent months. Inflation has moved up recently and is elevated relative to our 2% longerrun goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending in March.
Boosted by the significant rise in global oil prices that has resulted from the conflict in the Middle East. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.2% over the 12 months ending in March. This relatively high rate largely reflects the effects of tariffs on prices in the good sector.
Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen this year, likely because of the substantial rise in oil prices. Most measures of longerterm expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal. Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people.
At today's meeting, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3 and a half to three and 3/4%. The economic outlook remains highly uncertain and the conflict in the Middle East has added to this uncertainty. Uhoh. In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation.
Beyond that, the scope and duration of potential effects on the economy remain unclear, as does the future course of the conflict itself. We will continue to monitor the risks to both sides of our dual mandate. We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting by meeting basis. This is my last press conference as chair, and I will close with a few thoughts. First, I want to congratulate Kevin Walsh on his ad advancement out of the Senate Banking Committee this morning. This is an important step forward and I wish him well as that process continues.
The Federal Reserve exists for one fundamental purpose to foster the economic conditions in which American families and businesses can thrive. Stable prices, a strong job market, and a financial system that every decision we make, whether about interest rates or regulatory and supervisory matters or other issues, is made in service of that purpose.
Our decisions reflect the collective judgment of the board of governors and the Federal Open Market Committee, colleagues who demonstrate analytical rigor, principled judgment, and a genuine commitment to the public interest. Our collaborative and deliberative process has long reflected a shared commitment to finding common ground in service to our mission.
This institution is resilient, capable, and staffed by professionals of extraordinary talent and exceptional dedication. It has been a privilege to serve alongside so many great public servants at the board of governors and around the Federal Reserve system. The Fed's work is only as effective as the public's understanding of it.
And you, the press, are essential to keeping the public informed about we about what we do and why. The people we serve, benefit from your careful reporting. I welcomed the announcement [clears throat] last Friday by the US attorney for the District of Columbia that she had closed the criminal investigation.
She also noted, however, that she would not hesitate to restart the investigation. Over the weekend, the Department of Justice provided assurances that they will not reopen the investigation unless there's a criminal referral from the Fed's inspector general. And absent such a referral, if they do appeal the recent court decision, they would not seek, as part of that appeal, to restart the investigation or send new subpoenas.
[clears throat] I've said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality, and I stand by that. I'm encouraged by recent developments, and I'm watching the remaining steps in this process carefully. My decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe is in the best interest of the institution and the people we serve.
After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined. I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. There's only ever one chair [clears throat] of the Federal Reserve Board. When Kevin Worsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that chair.
Once sworn in as board chair, his new colleagues will elect him to chair the FOMC as well. As I regularly point out from this podium, our success in delivering our goals matters for all Americans. I'm confident that the Fed will continue to do its work with objectivity, integrity, and a deep commitment to serve the American people.
Thank you, and I look forward to your questions. [clears throat] Thank you, Mr. Chair. Appreciate the kind words about the press. Often doesn't come from the podium in different places, but appreciate that. Um, can you talk about what is gone into your decision to remain on the board? What kind of criteria are you weighing and uh how long might you stay?
Thank you. Sure. So, you know, my [clears throat] my concern is really about the series of legal attacks on the Fed which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors. And I I want to note here, this has nothing whatever to do with verbal criticism by elected officials.
Uh I I've never suggested that such ver verbal criticism is a problem and neither has anyone else here. But these legal actions by the administration are unprecedented in our 113year history and there are ongoing threats uh of additional such actions. I I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors.
It is so important for our economy, for the people that we serve, that they can depend over time on a central bank that operates that way free of political influence. It's part of the absolute foundation of this amazing economy that we have. It's just one of the many reasons why the US economy is the envi envy of the world.
That piece of institutional architecture separates successful countries from unsuccessful countries. It is extremely important not for the people who work at the Fed at any given time, but for the people that we serve, that the Fed remain able to conduct monetary policy in a way that doesn't get pulled into politics trying to help or hurt any particular politician or political party.
It's critical for the people that we serve. In terms of when I would leave, I I will leave when I when I think it's appropriate to do so. Was that all your questions or was that Well, I just have a followup, which is what would you say to the criticism that by remaining on the board, you're actually taking a political act and denying uh President Trump the majority of the board, which as president he would have if you left.
I I don't see that at all. As I mentioned, uh you know, I'm literally staying because of the actions that have been taken. I I had long planned to be retiring. Uh and uh you know the things that have happened in really in the last three months have have I think left me no choice but to stay until till I see them through at least that long.
Um you know in addition uh I don't see how this will interfere. My intention is not to interfere. You know, I was a governor for almost six years, and the tradition is at the Fed that governors uh who understand how difficult the role of chair is. And as a as a soontobe former chair, I do understand how hard it is to get consensus with 19 strong-minded people.
You work with the chair. You you try to you try to uh be heard, but also collaborate with the chair and try to support the chair when you can. When you can't, you can't. And I think that's the attitude that people generally take. And that's the attitude that I'll take. Uh Nick, J Pal, if I could ask about the inflation outlook.
In March, you described the standard practice of looking through energy shocks as conditional on inflation expectations staying anchored. Since that meeting, there has been very little progress reopening uh key energy trade corridors. Can you help us understand how the inflation outlook has changed in the interming period beginning with the prospects for tariff pass through resolving on the timeline that you had outlined in March before getting to the energy shock that is now on top?
So, you know, I would look at it this way. Um, for a long time, we've been working on on the hypothesis really that tariff uh tariffs would would lead to a one-time price increase and that that would go away over time. In other words, that there would be no further change. So, measured inflation wouldn't reflect that higher level going up more and more.
And it's time for that to happen. You know, we really do expect that to be happening in the next two quarters. So, we'll be watching very carefully to see that what we've thought all along would happen. That's the kind of critical part of the forecast. We we need to really see that with with energy.
It's it's so hard to say. Um I I mentioned you know in you know sort of the textbook you you would look through it an oil shock because they tend to be shortlived and they tend to revert and monetary policy works with long and variable lag. So you you know you wouldn't necessarily re react right away.
I think that is all the more true given that we're several years above 2% inflation and that we're already looking through the tariff shock. So I think we're going to be very cautious about that. It's but the question about about looking through energy really is not not in front of us right now. We it hasn't even peaked yet and I think we'd want to see the backside of that and progress on tariffs before we even thought about uh about reducing rates.
So, if I could [clears throat] follow up, the the statement today preserves language that has taken on some meaning uh as it was socialized when the committee was actively lowering rates. Why is that easing bias still uh ripe given how different the inflation outlook is now versus a meeting or two ago?
And what more would [clears throat] have to happen for it to get evicted? So um that was uh as you will recall we we had a discussion about that at the last meeting and we talked about it in in the press conference after the March meeting. We had the same today. We had quite a vigorous discussion about that that very issue and the guidance and is it still appropriate and that kind of thing.
And I would say that the you know number of people on the committee who either could support that ch language change changing to a more neutral stance so that a hike is as likely as as a cut. uh that number has increased over the intermedating period and it's easy to see why. I mean it's it's a it's it's a good question right you see inflation has moved up over the interim a bit core inflation's 3.2 now moving albeit just a little bit in the wrong direction and we we know that there will be you know that there's uh headline inflation coming out of the Gulf and we don't know how much that will be.
We just we're going to need to see. So it makes all the sense in the world that people would look at that and and we'd have a vigorous discussion about that. You saw that three people desented over the language. I think all of those people agreed with the with the rate decision. Um so the majority of the committee did not want to do that and and and I I was I didn't think we needed to do it at this meeting.
It really was just a question of what's why do we need to do that now? You know, we have so much to learn. There's so much uncertainty about the path ahead. there doesn't need to be any rush to make that decision now because you know what what happens in the next 30 60 days even by the next meeting could really change the picture around that around that language.
So you know it was a it was a it's a close it's it's a much closer thing on the committee than it was in March and you know that makes all the sense in the world it seems to me cla Jones Financial Times. Oh my. Um, just just going back to this issue of the we've got the Brits asking questions today.
Now got oil approaching $120 a barrel when it comes to the benchmark um Brent crude. Um, if it stays around those levels 6 weeks from now, what would be your guess best guess as to whether the easing bias will still be in the statement? Thank you. I I wouldn't want to guess, you know, well, first of all, we're going to have new leadership in all likelihood by then and and new leadership is going to have a very important role to play in that.
So, uh I won't be standing here at this podium to answer your question. So, um I don't know, as I mentioned, that's all I can really say is that we had we had a great discussion about that today. It's a you know, it's got it's gotten to be a better question in the interim period. We had the discussion the majority are still on the page of of not feeling the need to move to that level.
And I I that's where I am. Uh I I get it though, you know, at a certain point you would move and that that conceivably could come as soon as the next meeting. Thank you. And just to follow on, um the new leadership also seem rather lukewarm on press conferences and on the dot plots. What would your advice to him be on these communication tools?
So I'm I'm not going to give him any advice through you today here. But I've you know I I think communications generally is uh I think every incoming chair takes a look at communications and it's a very healthy thing. I mean communications is it's very complex and uh you know you can always be uh be looking at new things and and if that happens feels like it's going to happen that's completely appropriate thing.
Hi, Chair Chair Pal with Axios. Um, can you tell us if you've been uh in touch with with incoming chairman Worsh uh any uh to what extent is this a normal transition process versus all the things swirling around uh something unusual and and what can we expect when when he takes uh takes that podium in a few weeks?
I I haven't seen him since uh seeing him at a dinner in January where I congratulated him and had a nice nice chat with him. Haven't seen him. I don't know what a normal process is. You know, the the last process was with uh Janet Yellen with whom I had worked for six years and so it was a you know, we were sitting down the hall from each other.
So, it was a very different thing. I think I think this is and will be a very normal standard kind of a kind of a transition process. So, that's that's what I expect. I have every reason to think it will be. Quick followup. Is the Supreme Court ruling on Governor Cook a factor in when you may leave as a governor?
I wasn't thinking of it as such, but no, not really. I mean, I'm thinking more of the other things I mentioned. Chris, hi. Uh, thanks for taking our question. I wanted to ask a question about your tenure and Chris Rugver at Associated Press. Um, during your tenure as chair, you often spoke about how disadvantaged Americans benefited from extended periods of low unemployment.
Uh, and the new framework the Fed adopted in 2020, some economists say, elevated the Fed's employment mandate. Uh, are you worried that the the pandemic inflation spike that followed will make future Fed chairs more reluctant to pursue a hot jobs market and should they be? Um, I don't know the answer to that.
I mean what we so what we experienced um in in uh the in the teens the mid teens was uh really low low levels of unemployment for a long period of time and no reaction from inflation and we all took very much took notice of that. We also noticed that the biggest wage gains were going to people at the bottom end of the income spectrum.
And we had many many reports of uh I mean it felt like a fairly stable equilibrium and a lot of benefits were flowing to people at the bottom end of the uh income spectrum including companies were you know setting up in um in you know people who were confined and and like training them before they got out and it was it was a very healthy sort of set of societal dynamics.
So of course I think anybody would love to get back to that. Um I I don't think that anything that happened to create the the global pandemic inflation was in any any way related to overweighting the employment market. I mean it was it was a global shock that happened essentially very very similarly all over the world that had to do with closing reopening stimulus and all that.
And I mean you could you could look at a graph of 10 big economies on the page and not know which was the US and which was Germany, France and things like that. So I don't think that that that insight was in any way responsible for the high inflation that we experienced. So I mean I think it's always been a balance.
Uh uh you you've got to you've got to be strong on both of our dual mandates and we we just for example now we we don't feel that the uh labor market is at all a source of inflation. So we don't need to be worrying about that. It's been a long time since we have had to worry about that. Well, actually during the during the pandemic recovery, the labor market was super overheated and tight and that's when we had to worry about it.
But but not now. Just on the other issue, um are you would you need do you need more assurance from the Justice Department before stepping down? Is that what you're waiting for or what else? I'm waiting, you know, for the for the investigation to be well and truly over with finality and transparency and and I'm waiting for that and I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so.
Michael McKe. [clears throat] Michael McKe from Bloomberg Television and Radio. I'd like to ask you if you could explain a little more or characterize a little more the discussion about the two-sided view and interest rates because there were some members of the open market committee who've been suggesting that we may need to raise interest rates even absent the war because inflation was not coming down fast enough.
Uh is there any sense that interest rates might have to go up or was this just a setup to sort of uh warn people that you're worried about the war impacts? So nobody the three dissenters and and others who could have supported that and others who were you know who were voters and prefer non- voters who preferred it they all supported the right decision right so people are not saying we need to hike now it's more a question of you know don't we kind of feel that we should be neutral and markets are markets what are markets doing people argue that's this is consistent what markets are doing and again it's a it's a very fair question but you know these these changes is there is you know it's a form of forward guidance and you want to make you don't want to make them you want to make them in a way that that will be sustained and continue to make sense and not something you need to take back uh you know fairly quickly.
So I I think we just a group of us including me didn't feel like we needed to be in a hurry on that that that markets are not confused about our reaction function. We don't have a problem to solve on that. But the other side of the argument is a good argument too as I as I mentioned. It's a perfectly good argument to be having good discussion to be having.
So and it came out the way it came out. Well, you've got u three descents [clears throat] uh in favor of a two-sided uh warning. Uh you've got yourself staying on the board. You've got the criticism that does come from elected officials. Uh and you've got a lot of uh critics who have faulted the Fed for being too slow 2021 with inflation.
Are you worried about Fed credibility under all of this? Is that one reason that you want to stay on? Not not driving my my thinking now. I mean, monetary policy is going to get made by, you know, 19 people. There's a lot of stability there. Uh, I mean, if you think about it, any every new Fed Fed chair has the same situation, which is you've got 18 colleagues on the FOMC, 11 of them vote during any year, and you have to your job is to create consensus is it's to talk to them, understand them, you know, be inside their thinking and be able to pull them together and and get consensus and move.
And that's that's what every Fed chair has to do. And I I think Kevin Worsh is actually quite well. He has the capabilities, skills to be to be very good at that, I would think. So I think I I'm not so worried about that process, you know. Uh I think that'll that'll work itself out. [clears throat] Howard,
uh thank you, Chair Howard Schneider with Reuters. You you mentioned that uh staying on as a governor, you intend to keep a low profile. I'm just wondering if you could give us a little more detail on what that looks like and how you can touch um what that Yeah. walk down the steps uh what that looks like and particularly around the policy discussion how you're able to uh to have your intervention and not be a shadowed chair and not have kind of an outsized influence over the process.
Yeah. You know, that's just something I would never do. You know, the shadow chair thing. No, you know, it's it's I I don't know what the exact specifics of it will be, but I'm going back to being a governor. I respect the role of chair. I you know, I was a chair. I was a governor for six years, and I know what that's like.
I know and I I had a you know, pretty front row seat with particularly with with Chair Yellen to whom I I was close when I when I I was worked with Chairman Bernani for two years, but um you know, I I I was brand new at that time. So I got a sense of what it was and I had real sympathy for how hard it is to get that group to consensus and I always felt like I you know I don't want to add to that unnecessarily and that means try to support the chairs where the chair the direction the chair wants to go in if you can.
If you can't you can't but and I think that's that's the way it's always worked there because the chair only has one vote plus the ability to develop consensus and if people won't be you know they they won't if they're not flexible at all then how do you ever do that? And so that's why the chair has the authority the chair has really is to develop relationships with people and work with them and then and then put something forward that has consensus and I you know I I prop I propose to be a very constructive participant in that process really out of respect for for the office of the chair
and uh in your view as a a soontobe governor how do you see the risks of oil prices bleeding into core inflation in coming weeks because That was it seems like the commentary that was coming from particularly some of the reserve bank presidents they were elevated concerns about the bleed into core and you know here we are with three descents now what do you see as the prospect of of of a core inflation
you know they're those prospects are real remember though our are um and they're real and the real thing is we're going to have to wait and see we're going to need to see and the good news is we think our policy stance is just is in a very good place for us to wait and see we you know we're right kind of at the high end of neutral or perhaps mildly restrictive.
U the labor market shows more and more signs of stability whereas inflation is kind of misbehaving and so maybe a little bit of uh of restriction or the high end of neutral is just the right place to be. So we can wait here and see uh and see how things work out before we act and we'll see how much that you know how much does come through into core.
You see it already in air airfares of course but you may see it in many other places. Uh you know uh we just don't know yet and it's it's so unknowable because how how long will the straight be closed? You can develop any number of scenarios that you want but we really won't know till we know. So fortunately we're in a good place to to wait and let things develop.
Thank you. [clears throat] Uh thanks Mr. Chairman. um you started holding post uh post meeting press conferences for every meeting as opposed to the ones with just uh with SCPs. Can you talk about why you see that as a net positive? So we um we always said when we were doing quarterly press conferences, we always said we can move at any meeting, but we only ever moved at the quarterly SCP meetings where we had the press conference.
So if you think about it, you know, we during the pandemic, we were moving like a lot at every meeting and sometimes between meetings and and doing that with our press conference, I think would have been quite challenging. It's become the industry norm. It's the standard. I don't know whether that has to remain that way.
I don't know. I mean I it's it's just something people have become used to and I I do think it's quite helpful to you know to uh I mean I I I try to deliver a message on behalf of the committee rather than 18 people 18 other people going out and delivering their message and it's you know it's going to be all over the place because we do thankfully have widely disperate views.
Um okay [clears throat] thanks. The other thing I wanted to ask about was the communications review from last year. Um uh could you describe the debate last year? what changes were considered, what you wanted, and what prevented action um any action uh on the on on those changes. So yeah, I'm not going to go into the the real small specifics, but what we found very quickly was that um making making changes making really large changes, for example, to the DOT plot or the SCP um it didn't have we couldn't come up with anything that had really broad support on the committee and and so we just moved on.
We didn't we we didn't really do as much on on that as we might have and uh you know I was never the world's biggest fan of the dot plot but you you can't can't beat something with nothing and you know there's a that we've looked at a bunch of things and uh you know it's something I like I said I think every new chair is going to look at our suite of communications and and think about what would be changes.
We we are the only major central bank that doesn't publish a forecast and that's because we have a 19 person committee and you know you try to do it you try to do that on the at the board that's hard at the at the committee that's hard uh it's hard if you do it at the staff so it's you know it's been it works I think our communications are fine but looking at doing it in a different and better way is the most natural thing in the world
thank you Um, Colobby Smith with the New York Times. If I could follow up on Mike's question about hikes, are we right to assume that the hawkish outcome for the Fed is still one in which the committee just extends the pause in rate cuts? And to what extent is there a growing sense within the committee that monetary policy really isn't just restrictive at all right now?
Um, the economy is holding up relatively well despite this major energy shock. The unemployment rate has ticked lower. inflation was moving sideways even before the war and is now moving higher. Um so so where is the committee at on that debate? You know where we're at is we think our pol really we think our policy rate is in a good place.
Um if we need to hike we will we will certainly signal that and we will and we will certainly do it. If we need to to cut then if it's appropriate to cut then we'll we'll signal the opposite. I think we because we feel like we're we're in a good place to move in either direction. Um, nobody's calling for a hike right now.
Um, so it really is going to depend on how things how things evolve. Uh, and you know that that's really where it is. You as I mentioned clo you know much closer question this cycle on changing the guidance but but ultimately we didn't. And as it relates to the war at what [clears throat] point do you think the risk to growth will be larger than the risk to inflation as this conflict drags on?
you know, you just have to find that out empirically, you know, with given our um the fact that we're, you know, a big exporter of energy and that our economy is far less energy intensive, oil intensive than it was during the 70s. Um, you know, the the effects on the United States are really substantially less than those of Western Europe or or Asia.
We're feeling much greater effects from from these things. the effects we're feeling in, you know, in the current situation currently and in in sort of what's priced in which is, you know, a relatively quick outcome. If if this goes on for much longer and prices go much higher, then we'll feel that much more.
And of [clears throat] course, I'm talking about aggregate inflation numbers. We know, we're very well aware that people are experiencing higher gas prices all over the country now, and [clears throat] that hurts that and these are those those hikes may continue to happen. and other other things are going to start to reflect air airline fairs I mentioned and and other other products and services that are dependent upon petroleum and derivatives of petroleum people are going to start to feel that
Edward thank you [clears throat] thank you chair Edward Lawrence with uh Fox Business so I guess I'll just ask you directly on this markets don't see a rate cut at all this year is what they're predicting do you think that we are at the neutral rate why or why not, you know, the neutral rate is a we cannot know it with uh with certainty.
I think pretty close to the neutral rate. Yeah. I I always had it, you know, between 3 and 4%, we're a little north of 3 and a half. So, that's well in the range of what I would consider a reasonable reasonable, but at the higher end of the range of what I would consider reasonable neutral rate. Um, you know, I think you're the labor market is still probably cooling off just a little bit.
Um, and I I don't think there's a much of a case for any case really for the for uh policy looking, you know, meaningfully restrictive, maybe mildly restrictive or neutral, I would say. Um, and I want to follow up on some of the other questions [clears throat] about uh your future a little bit. The the first time we've seen four descents now since October of 1992, are you handing off a divided Fed?
You know, the thing [clears throat] to remember is uh uh we have always had vigorous debates and and uh they're excellent debates. I have to say they're they've been really good. Uh and uh we're in an unusually difficult situation. So we we've really had four supply shocks. You can actually you can say more than four but at a minimum we've we had the pandemic, we had the invasion of the of Ukraine, we had tariffs and now we have of Iran and the oil um you know the oil spike.
So those every every supply shock has the capability of right driving inflation up and unemployment up and and what do you do? You know you're it's it's central bank has a really hard time knowing what to do. So the right thing to do is to try to balance the achievement of those two goals. And that's what our framework calls for us to do.
But these are really tough, difficult judgments. You've got to have a forecast for each variable. You've got to think how long it's going to take to get back to target. You got to think how how restrictive or not is policy. So it's only natural that you have a range of views on the committee. You know, people are going to see it different ways.
They're going to have different risk tolerances and that kind of thing. I mean, if everybody agreed, that would be that would be surprising. Uh and I I think it's only it's partly a function of the extraordinarily challenging set of supply shocks that we've been dealing with now for five six years. Thank you so much, Chair Powell.
Selena Wayne with ABC News. Are you confident that Kevin Worsh will stand up to political pressure from President Trump? So, he he testified very strongly to that effect in his hearing, and I and I'll take him at his word. And when it comes to gas, right now it's over $4 a gallon. Inflation just hit a 2-year high.
Should Americans expect to be paying higher gas prices for the rest of this year? And in your view, does that take a rate cut off of the table? And secondly, by staying on as uh Fed Governor, what message do you think you're sending to the president? I I don't know what gas prices are going to do for the rest of the year and um it will depend on how long the straight remains closed and how quick quickly it can be reopened and that kind of thing.
But remember when gas prices go up um that's disposable income coming out of people's pockets. So they're going to spend less on other things. So there will be a hit to GDP. So it's a you know it's a it's a question whether spending you know goes down uh to offset the inflationary effects. So it's not the answer isn't obvious uh exanti whether you whether you should move your rate over over because of that.
We'll have to see how it evolves. And the message it says the president by staying on I'll stand on what I said earlier [clears throat] Victoria. Hi Victoria Aguido with Politico. Um, during your tenure, Fed independence has come under pressure in a lot of different ways. And I was just wondering, practically speaking, where do you see Fed independence as coming from?
Is it the law? Is it political support from Congress? Is it the actions of the Fed? What what sustains Fed independence? Well, it's, you know, it's it's to to a significant extent it is the law. And, you know, we've had to go to court to successfully so far to defend it. But you know the the law does create a setting in which the Fed can and is directed to uh make monetary policy without consideration of political factors.
And so so part of it is the law. But but it goes beyond that though. There's a set of customs. There's there's a boundary line between the Fed and the administration between the Fed and the Treasury Department. And we need to respect those, continue to respect those boundaries about what the Fed's responsible for and what the Treasury is responsible for and what the the rest of the administration's respons responsible for.
So, some some of it is legal. Um, in fact, it's all legal at the end of the day. But there it's it's more than just monetary policy. We, you know, we don't we don't want to use our tools to we haven't wanted to use our tools to achieve goals that are really clearly outside our mandate. Every administration looks at our tools and thinks that would be good to repurpose those to serve other purposes, but that gets drag that's dragging us into politics and into fiscal policy.
So, we've resisted that. Well, and maybe another way of asking it too is do you think that Fed independence is as strong now as when you became chair? And if so, why? Look, I think it's at risk. I mean, I think these these, you know, these legal assaults, if you will, as I mentioned, you know, we're the institution is being battered over these things.
We're having to resort to, you know, the courts to to enforce our legal, you know, in not it's not so much independence. It's it's really the ability to do monetary to make monetary policy without political considerations. That's what we're talking about. And uh we've had to do that and we've been successful.
so far. But that's not over. None of that is concluded yet. And it's, you know, it's really important. It's not about it's not about people who work at the Fed or the institution. It's about the benefits of a central bank that makes decisions based on analysis and our best thinking. Uh rather than, you know, trying to help or hurt politicians.
It's, you know, that there's there's a bright line between central banks who do one and do the other and successful countries have uniformly successful advanced economy countries have a really strong set of protections around their central bank just for that reason. So that's what it's all about. I you know I I think I am confident as I said in my remarks that the Fed will continue to make its decision based on analysis, rigorous analysis and not on political considerations.
But we've had to fight for it. And I I' you know, I'd like to think that, you know, I'd like to think we can get out of that era and go back to respecting, you know, what the law says and what custom has been, which is to, you know, let the Fed do our thing. We're, you know, we're we're not we're it's a it's an institution full of human beings who work super hard to get things right for the benefit of the public.
We're all human. don't expect for perfection, but do expect us to make, you know, decisions without political considerations and and the very best analysis we can bring. Katarina [clears throat] Katarina Sariva, Bloomberg News. Um, how would you characterize um what you've heard from your colleagues on your decision to stay?
Um, do you have their support? And then have you heard concern from your colleagues um about continued legal attacks from um the executive branch? Is this something that others have uh you know talked to you about? So I think that um I I don't want to report on what my colleagues think. They can they can speak for themselves.
But you know yeah there are there widespread concerns that these things may continue. That's all that's all I'll say. And uh you know and that would be a problem. And um so um and then I just also wanted to ask about um Governor Waller's speech on the reserve banks. um what you know do you have any thoughts on on centralizing some of those functions in the way he described?
And then um have you know do are you concerned that something like that could potentially be a slippery slope to um you know to consolidate reserve bank functions even more in such a way where you you know the central bank ultimately loses some of that important regional information. So we try to be good stewards of the public's money and efficient and Chris in particular Chris Waller is particularly passionate about that of course so are the reserve so are the presidents and you know it's a question of how do you accomplish it uh we we of course and and Chris said this in his speech we you know we want 12 strong independent central banks with their own staffs and their own monetary policy views and all that but you know there are things that are done in all 12 which could well be done at one much more efficiently and with cost savings.
And so there's a back and forth going on on that, but everybody everybody's on the same page. The other thing he touched on was was uh the idea of removing reserve bank presidents from office over different views on monetary policy. I would I would just agree with him so strongly that that would be the beginning of the end of of the Fed's ability to to make monetary policy independently.
If every administration could come in and do that, you're you're just another cabinet agency at that point. So that's not something that I would support. Chris said the same thing. Christine, thanks Chair Pal. Christine Romans, NBC News. I want to ask about legacy. when the history books are written.
How do you think your stewardship at the Fed will be remembered for the past eight years? You know, I'm gonna just say that uh that's for that's for someone else to say. I'll give you a mulligan on that. [clears throat] All right. I'm going to ask you about uh misbehaving inflation then. You talked about those four big shocks, supply shocks over the past 5 years and in inflation still misbehaving.
What's your message to American families who feel like inflation has not been under control for them really since since the co reopening? You know, we're we're committed to bring inflation back down to 2% and and sustainably. That's that's our goal and we will we'll stick at it until that happens. We keep getting these events keep happening which keep driving up costs and you know the best thing we can do is to use our tools to guide inflation back down to 2%.
I think trying to get there really quickly could be very costly in terms of of uh of job loss and things like that, but we try to get there over time in a way that does the least damage possible. And you know, our commitment to that is never ending and unshakable. How would you describe the economy outside of the misbehaving inflation?
I mean, um it's still awfully resilient given all of the blows. I don't know that you can be awfully resilient. So it's actually quite resilient I would say because it's a positive thing if I can if I can have that amendment. Yeah, that the you know growth is really solid across our economy. Some of that is um that consumer spending is hanging in pretty well.
The the most recent data are good and some of it is just the apparently insatiable demand for data centers all over the United States. So a lot of uh business investment going into building data centers and every reason to think that that continues. So you've got an economy that's growing at 2% or better.
PDFP, which is private domestic final purchases that which is really a better signal of of uh of a momentum in the economy, actually higher than that. So that's, you know, that's a positive thing. The if you look at the unemployment rate, it's 4.3%. So that's a low rate. That's pretty close to mainstream estimates of the natural rate.
We've been there for a long time. So, it's it's it doesn't feel like a good labor market to some who who don't have jobs because quits are really low, hires are really low, and there's effectively no new net job uh creation. So, that's a that's you know, in a sense, the labor market is in balance, but it's an unusual and uncomfortable kind of a balance where people who don't have jobs will have a hard time breaking in unless somebody quits their job.
So, um so that's pretty good. You know, inflation is the thing we need to work on, and it's partly tariffs, which we think we think that that inflation should subside over the course of this year because it's it's kind of a one-time increase. It shouldn't be repeated, and that should start happening pretty soon.
The energy inflation that we're getting should go through fairly quickly. Uh, and we'll we'll just have to see how that works out. In the meantime, you know, we think our policy stance is in a good place for us to hold and and wait developments. Jennifer [clears throat] Thank you, Chair Pal. Jennifer Shawn Berger with Yahoo Finance.
At the risk of beating the dead horse here, clearly three members objected to keeping that easing bias in the statement. And you said that the majority still didn't need still didn't need to uh move to new language at this point. So does the majority of the committee still have a bias towards cuts at this point or has the bias on the committee shifted away from cuts towards holding or hikes if that was needed?
I so I think that you know the the center is moving toward a more neutral place and that's sort of what markets are saying too. I just think, you know, uh there's a lot of signaling going on when you change guidance like that. And so we we just I guess the major a majority of us didn't feel like we needed to send a signal on that right now.
Uh and but maybe it'll come to that and and the reason is because, you know, we're kind of waiting to see what happens with with events in the Middle East and what are the implications of those events for the US economy. So there was just a there's a group who feels like we don't need to be in a hurry to do that.
We we get it and of course we will move to a hiking bias if we want to hike and we'll move to a new a neutral bias before that. But there was a difference over whether to do it at this meeting at at a meeting at which all but one of us agreed that that the that the rate decision was correct which was not to move.
And you just said moments ago that you believe Fed independence is at risk. Is it safe to say that you want to stay on as a governor to serve as a check and balance on that? I I want to stay until I I will stay until it's I feel it's appropriate for me to leave. And and yes, that is that is really what is driving this.
Uh I'm not uh I'm not looking to be, you know, a high-profile uh dissident or anything like that. I I'm I'm more looking at the other aspects of this and wanting to see that things have calmed down and and we're returning to a traditional model of working with the people that you have and bringing them to consensus and respecting that consensus.
That's what that's what I'm I'm hoping to see. Matt Eaggan. Thanks, [clears throat] Chair Powell. Matt Eaggan with CNN. Uh you've made many tough decisions in your time at the Fed and as your time as chair comes to a close and you think about your tenure and perhaps your legacy, are there any decisions that stand out as ones that you're particularly proud of?
And are there any that with the benefit of hindsight you would take a mulligan on? Yeah, I it's hard I wouldn't want to signal signal out individual things at this point. You know, I'll just say uh you know, we all of us together have consistently tried to do what we think is best for the American people based on our tools and our objectives that that Congress has given us.
It's been very challenging because we've been in a situation of supply shock supply shocks really for six years. And it that's just a very different situation than for a very long time. what the Fed and other central banks were doing all the time was demand management and you know and there was always the inflation mandate but inflation was low for 25 years.
So this is a very different world and a much more challenging one where you have to balance the two objectives and by the way central banks that have a an inflation mandate have to do exactly the same thing because they're balancing economic activity. So that's been challenging and we've, you know, we've tried to do our very best through these really challenging uh times and I'm really proud of of uh the work that I've done that my that my colleagues and I have done during these uh these years.
Now to follow up on some of the the discussion around Fed [clears throat] independence, can you explain to the public why this notion of Fed independence, which might sound kind of wonky to some, is so critical? I mean, what are the consequences if either the Supreme Court rules against Lisa Cook or the Fed in the future decides to make decisions more around the political calendar instead of the economic data?
So, every major advanced economy in the world has made the same decision the United States has made and that is that they want to take the making of monetary policy, the setting of interest rates to support the economy to achieve maximum employment and price stability. They want to take that out of the direct control of elected politicians and the reason is elected politicians are always running for election and they'll always want low rates and that will re lead to inflation over time.
So after you know literally centuries of experience with that the whole world moved to the different model and it's it's worked great. I mean this is this is the era in which inflation was under control for 40 years. Then we had the pandemic inflation everywhere in in the world and now we have inflation that had gone pretty much all the way back to target really close to all the way back to target and now is being buffeted by the energy shock and the US buffeted by the by the tariff shock as well.
So but what I would say to the general public is that's that's the backstory is that um it don't think about an institution being independent. Think of it this way that you want people to make monetary policy and set interest rates to benefit the general public and to try to achieve economic goals which are maximum employment and price stability and focus only on that and ignore political considerations completely ignore them.
It's this isn't bipartisan. This is nonpartisan. So we we we want to just we just work directly for the American people doing these things. We don't think, "Oh, this I want to do this because the president says it's a good idea or because there's an election coming up and I want to I want to speed up or slow down the economy." I mean, that think about that.
If that's if that that's what we were doing, we'd have no credibility. Markets would lose faith in us and our ability to control inflation and and and have any respect would be, you know, would be gone. And let me say, whatever people say, the markets believe in that we will produce 2% inflation. If you look at longer run expectations, markets believe that they there's there's no sense in which our credibility in the markets has weakened.
It's just not the case. It's it's people do get it that this is our commitment and that we will achieve it and it's priced in. If you disagree with that, then you can go ahead and bet against the markets, but the markets are pricing in Fed credibility. Okay, we'll go to Richard for the last. Thank you, Chair Pal.
Uh Richard Escobido with CBS News. Uh we've talked a lot about gasoline prices and and even you mentioned airline ticket prices, both of which are up dramatically because of the war in Iran. And so I wonder, are you seeing that weigh down consumer spending in other parts of the economy? Um and if so, how worried are you that that will be a drag on growth?
You don't see you don't see it in spending yet. You really don't. I mean, as one of your colleagues said, the economy has been resilient. It really has. Not just this time, but it's been remarkably resilient for some years now. The US economy has just powered through shock after shock. And consumers are still spending.
And that's what that's what the banks will tell you, credit card companies will tell you, the retail sales numbers that we got most recently. People are still spending. And um you know, how long can that go on in a world where if gas prices were to go up a bunch more, that's taking otherwise spendable money out of people's pockets.
But right now we we don't actually see much slowdown in uh yet from and certainly none from from this. But you think logically you will because people have a certain amount of money to spend if they're spending 25% more on gas or something like that then you know that's going to come out of other spending.
But we again we don't see it yet. Um one last thing you mentioned those economies in Southeast Asia that are particularly dependent on petroleum. Um they make a lot of the stuff that American consumers buy. So was there any discussion today about whether or not those costs getting passed along to consumers is a real concern and whether or not that might push up inflation?
So all of those things are in are are in the models that that we use to calculate inflation. So we you know they're they're just parts you can ask about anything like that and they are they have a place the staff has a place where they're looking at that and pricing in what will happen with higher prices and that kind of thing.
Uh so it's there the effects are not that big yet. Uh you know we're a huge economy the import sector is only 10% of the economy. So we're not like a European country where 50% of the uh external of GDP is in the external sector. We're also, you know, as I mentioned, we're an oil exporter, so we're not feeling the same kind of pain and we're not likely to feel the same kind of pain that economies in in Western Europe and and certainly in Asia are feeling.
Anyway, thank you very much everyone. I won't see you next time. So sad. So sad. Jerome, I'll miss you. Jerome, I'll miss [singing] you. Jerome, I'll miss you. Jerome, I'll miss you. You'll always be inside my heart. inside my heart [singing] forever. Ro [singing] man, so sad. Well, sweet Jerome, man.
That's so sad. You know, it's the end of an era, guys. It's the end of an era. How many how many FOMC's have we had? You know, how many FOMC's, man? How many FOMC's now? Sit back cuz I'm the best crypto MC. JP, Mr. Wait and see. He's gone forever. Makes me glee, makes me sad. I gotta cry like I'm so fly.
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I give it to you serious. You know I never play. It's just another day, another day, another trade. I give it to you straight. You know I never give a gay. That's why everybody in the house say, "Hey, AJ Casper traded in the house." And we're trading Bitcoin for the Bitcoin bounce, baby. Oh snap. Let me take a peek.
This market cipher be have any uneven butt cheeks? Yes, we do. Big on the left, so dang juicy and skinny on the right just to round out the booty. And I don't even know if you can spot it, but we bounce from the golden pocket. Not the golden pocket, but our cousin 786. You know the Bitcoin price is back to her old tricks.
She's looking super hungry. She's licking her lips. The next thing you know, she starts to flip the price to the upside. Let it ride like a water slide. Jason Casper coming in. You know he likes to glide. Taking profits every day. You know we stay fly. Making all the money no matter how hard I try. Here we go.
Tippy top. Bitcoin price. You know we about to rock it. We're out here collecting rings just like Sonic. And we fighting bad guys like Sonic verse Robotnik coming up tippy top into the golden pocket. Market makers try to drop it but you know we stop it cuz we are the market makers. You know we're in control.
You know we got the takers. The makers and the takers got the lowest fees on KX and Antarctic. Listen to me. Jason Casper taking trades whenever he please. Don't you know I love to eat bread and some cheese. only eat sourdough bread. Yeah. Uh only sourdough bread, baby. We don't want none of that gluten.
The gluten. The gluten. Yeah, we only eat sourdough. No gluten. Jason Caster loves his carbs from fruit. And you got to eat all the nice vegetables. the Bitcoin price. Acting like we're in control. Taking longs, taking shorts, going through the front door, wearing pants, wearing shorts. Next thing we ask for more like a dance when we're looking to get cuz you're short at the bottom.
And don't you know you got to snort like a pig in the mud. Kind of muddy just like trans on carbon binary emission gender studies. Back in college, don't you know I majored in this? And people didn't know what bathroom I would piss in. The girls or the boys? But if you're feeling bullish, baby, make some noise.
Bitcoin about to startle. Don't you know we buy and we huddle? Huddle by. Huddle huddle by. Don't be scared. Just huddle huddle by. Huddle by. Huddle huddle by. Don't try. Just huddle huddle by. Oh my goodness. Wowers. Well, what a pretty cool FOMC that was, guys. So, here's what I think about the Bitcoin price action.
Big shout out to everybody in the chat. First of all, the long trade taken live. Man, was that not an epic knife catch snipe or what? That was an epic knife catch snipe. All right, we hit our take profit. Literally, guys, did you see my take profit get hit? And literally, we dump 75,5500 TP1, baby. That is wild.
I'm not going to lie. I'm not going to lie. All right, I'm going to go ahead and close this baby out here. Lock in my 1300 bucks. All right, I'm going to keep the position open over here on this account. I really want to hold this level, guys. If we don't hold the level, it's not looking good. Maybe we get a bounce from the golden pocket.
First of all, here's the deal. All right, here's the deal. First of all, yes, this is bullish. In 5 minutes, we get a confirmed very bullish div on the 24-minute. All right, let me show you guys a few things. Oh, wait. This is ES. This isn't Bitcoin. You know what? I'm an idiot. I'm such an idiot. I thought that was Bitcoin.
No, no different, though. In 4 minutes, Bitcoin is going to confirm a 24-minute bullish divergence. Anyway, but here's the deal. All right, that's so funny. I was on ES. I thought I was on Bitcoin. See, this isn't financial advice, guys. This is our last support that we have until 73K. All right, we zoom out.
We see that ever since we broke out of the important resistance at $73,000. We uh are we've pulled the volume profile from the breakout. All right, we pulled the volume profile from the breakout. We're coming down to value area low and 786. All right, if we don't hold here, we're coming back down toward this massive support zone 7273,000.
That is the last hope for the Bitcoin bulls. If we lose it, well, we could very easily come way back down into the range. We could see 60K or lower. Honestly, I'm not trying to be scary or bear, but that's just the reality of the situation. After a breakout like this, if we come back in and we don't get a bullish retest, that is really not good.
All right, that is really not good. Now, we zoom out. We go to the 4 hour. Again, I just want to show you guys the importance of this. Man, I'm having some mouse issues, man. The mouse. Here we go. The importance of this, guys, is again, we're either going to get the back test of this. All right, this is super important.
Uh-oh. Oh my goodness. We're either going to get the back test of this here. Look how like literally look how important this is. It's the back test of everything. not only the value area high but also the trend line or we come back inside and if we do this is probably a fake out because when we go to the daily time frame we do have some confirmed bear divs the 12-hour confirmed bare divs the 4hour confirmed bare divs money flow curving down see how important this area is guys such a big important make it or break his zone if we hold here we could confirm confirm a 4hour bullish dive which could pump us back up towards 80,000 honestly My hope right now is that this does hold and I wake up tomorrow and we're in profits up here.
That's kind of what I hope, but we'll have to wait and see. All right, Wednesdays often are the weekly highs and lows. So, let us see what Asia does when Asia opens. Asia. Good old Asia. Like my wired earbuds. Get a wired mouse. Yeah, I can't. I can't. I have a I have a laptop. Uh why are not all the comments showing?
You have top on. All right, there's two options in YouTube. They've changed it quite a long time ago. Most people don't know this. There's top chat and there's live chat. All right, top chat only shows the ones who the YouTube algorithm deems good. So, if you're not showing up, it means YouTube thinks you don't you don't chat enough.
All right, you got to go to live chat to see evad only shows some peeps. Only some peeps. Looks like we're trying to roll over just like my views on this dang stream, you know? Just like my views on the dang stream are rowing over. But hopefully hopefully Oh man. Not good. Not good. Not good. Not good.
Not good. I really want to hold this level. Looks like not good. Not good. Not good. Not good. Not good. Not good. Not good. Not good. Working out in the morning fasted is burning visceral fat 20% more. Can you believe it? Um, well, I'll tell you. I don't know because I I hear different things, right?
I hear different things. I will tell you this. I will tell you this anecdotally. If you are doing heavy workouts in the morning, fasted, um, and then immediately going for a walk for about an hour. I don't know if it does anything to your body that's good or bad, but I do know this. It's way easier to stay lean that way.
way easier. Way easier if you can get a heavy workout in and 10,000 steps before you eat for the day, whether or not it burns more visceral fat or whatever. And there's something about doing that as well that makes you feel good for the rest of the day. If I wake up and I eat breakfast, I'm tired and hungry all day.
If I wake up and I lift heavy and I go for an hour walk, I feel great for the rest of the day. I have like unlimited energy. It just does something to you. It like jumpst starts the system. And I truly do believe that if you accustom your body to going through hard physical tasks while fasted without the glucose fresh in your system.
I I feel like it definitely burns more fat cuz what else do you have to run off of? You you don't have any fresh blood sugar. Everything's coming from your stores whether it be glycogen or body fat. You know what I'm saying? So, I don't know what's true with the science, but I'll tell you, I love working out fasted.
I hate working out fed. I hate I hate I don't know how people like they're like, I need a few meals in me before I lift weights. I'm not like that. I'm always stronger fasted. I might feel a little bit better if I'm fed. Like, I might feel stronger, but I'm and but I'm not. I don't know if that makes any sense.
You get more pumped up when you're fed, but you might not be stronger. All right. Yeah. Look, that's what James does. And look at his picture. All right. Dude is absolutely peeled. Dice to the Look at that. Wow. Yeah, he does that. Look, if you want to look like James, all right, 5% body fat, jacked, all you got to do is train fasted.
All right. And do your fasted cardio. Train fasted and do your fasted cardio, you know. Do I hold my position? Well, I just made a,000 bucks on my trade. $1,300 already locked in. Yeah, I'm just going to hold this one. Now, I have a short that's up 12 grand. Uh, I have literally nothing to lose here.
If it comes down, I'll I'll I'll close it out if we make a lower low and I'll take a couple hundred loss. No big deal. It's not even going to eat into my profit. You know, I closed that other long trade on KSEX for like a $1,300 profit. Yeah, there you go. The cortisol. The cortisol. Well, you know what?
Cortisol is not even bad. I'll be honest with you. People are scared of cortisol, and I understand it. But here's the thing. If you have balance in your life, I I feel like it doesn't matter. All right. What really matters to me is nutrition and sleep. And then yeah, push yourself like crazy. Cortisol is a tool.
Cortisol is a tool to be used. As long as it's not out of balance, it's okay. It's okay. As long as it's not out of balance. All right? As long as you don't have problems sleeping, as long as you wake up every morning with a stiffy, as long as you feel good and you feel happy, um, then it's okay. If you have trouble sleeping, you wake up without a stiffy, um, and you feel depressed and tired and lethargic, then it's too much cortisol.
All right? You got to find the balance. But for me, I like I like to go extreme. I like to work hard and I like to rest hard. I like to work hard. I like to rest hard and maintain a balance. You got to maintain a balance. Is there a quest today? Yeah. Let's give some eggs in the Discord here, guys. Yeah, we'll do it.
We'll do it. Yeah, we'll do it, baby. Yeah, people people demonize cortisol and and and rightfully so cuz it can wreck your life for sure if it's at if it's out of balance. But if you have a good balance, take advantage of that dang cortisol. Take advantage of it. Use it to your advantage. You know, low cortisol makes me think of a dadbot.
Honestly, you don't have any drive. if you don't have any fire under your butt to smack yourself in the face and say, "Be a dang man." You know, I've been through both phases of too much cortisol and and not enough. Honestly, you got to find that balance and use everything to your advantage. The code for eggs today, guys, is going to be JP.
All right, JP. The egg code in the Discord is JP. And if you're not a man, then yeah, you don't want to be waking up with a stiffy. But I'm talking to all my dudes out here. All right. So, Sudep says if she woke up with a stiffy, there might be a problem. That's true. I don't know what signs females look for to make sure their hormones are balanced, but if you're a male, you want to wake up with that uh you know the morning wood.
Exactly. Exactly. Is it healthy to spike your cortisol early in the morning? I don't know. But I do it. I do it. I love to do it. Like I wake up in the morning after I pray and drink half a gallon of water. I chug some coffee and I I get right to the physical movement. And it it it's it's good. I like it.
Hill sprints, bike sprints, heavy lifting, walking, all that stuff, you know. Yeah, but keep in mind too, the thing is I do think it's balanced because I sleep a lot. I sleep a lot. I sleep as much as I want to. I don't have an alarm clock. I have a good nighttime routine. I sleep through the night, you know, all this kind of stuff.
I feel recovered. I feel recovered. Like that's the thing. Go. You got to go based on how you feel, you know. No, not JP like that. R pink JP like this. All right. JP like this. Call spike in the morning seems to be good for sleep later says Splash. Yeah. I don't know. I I just know what what I like to do.
Everyone's different. But for me, I I need I need maybe I am a cortisol junkie. Maybe I'm a cortisol junkie, but I need that push in the morning. Like I need that that forced, you know, this is going to suck, but I'm going to force myself to do it. And once I once I force myself to like this morning, man, woke up and uh I woke up late and I was in a rush to get all my morning things done, right?
But I made sure I hit some heavy weights. Got a quick workout in. Didn't want to do it, but I did some heavy Smith machine Bulgarian split squats. Heavy to the point where literally to failure on each leg till I couldn't move my leg up at all. And I'm so glad I did cuz if I didn't, I would have felt like garbage all day, you know?
Yeah, JP is the code word. JP, the two letters JP. I'll put it in the chat again to Vegas Claw. Shout out to Arpink. Shout out to Josh JP. Just the two letters. Letter J, letter P. Letter J, letter P. Letter J, letter P. Letter J, letter P. Letter J, letter P. I'll put it in the chat one more time for y'all.
Let's take another poll because I want to know what you guys think if we pump or dump. All right, let's see here. Most this 50/50. When do we see 70K or 80? So, let's start another poll. Pump or dump from here. Let's see what this poll is. Pee in the tree. I did pee in the tree. I couldn't take you guys with me cuz it's pouring rain outside, you know.
VIP discount. Well, it is pretty discounted. It's $65 a month. That's a little bit more than $2 a day. We might have a Black Friday sale in November for the first month, like 50% off, but other than that, we can't I can't really discount anymore. All right. I need I need to charge that much in order to sustain the business.
Price action is molasses. It really is right now. This is crazy. So, I'm curious to see what you guys have to say. Crypto clown world pressing and heavy lifting has been pressing the landscaping rocks in front of your house. That's cool. Thoughts on raw honey? I love raw honey. I mean, I love raw honey.
I I actually haven't had raw honey in quite some time, but um I'm a big fan of raw honey. A huge fan of just a big old scoop of honey. There's nothing like some honey. Uh when you're feeling drained and tired, a little bit of honey. It's a whole food. They say you're hoping for a [snorts] little pump and then lower.
So Barry Frederick says, "It's good to exercise on an empty stomach. That's cool. 4 hour CDW below 737 then pump with 4-hour bull would be nice. 737. Uh that would be nice, man. I mean that's that's the value area high of the range. Absolutely. Absolutely, man. That would be very nice. Um that's the that's a major level that I'm also looking at right there.
Honey packets. No, not the honey packets. It needs to be raw honey. Needs to be raw honey. Oh man, honeycomb is amazing, James. Just uh the only thing about raw honeycomb is the the wax gets stuck in your teeth, but it tastes great. And if you suck all the honey out and just keep the wax, you got to spit out the wax.
Or I guess you could eat the wax. I don't really eat the wax when it comes to the honeycomb. Honey comb, honey brush, bowl full of mush. Let's see. Man, what a what a good FOMC. This was a good FOMC. I have 4,000 Bitcoin orders at $15. I hope you know for your sake man that would be amazing. That would be so insane if that actually happened and played out and then we pump back up if we just pump up to a thousand man.
I mean we pump up to 10k, man. Can you imagine that? Pump up to 20k. Can you imagine that? Sheesh. All right, mate. What were we looking at? We're going to look at something, right? Were we going to look at something? Are we longing this or what? I mean, I'm long. AMS took the long trade live from the exact bottom.
Caught the dang knife. Man, that was epic. That was epic. You know, I have to say that was pretty epic. That was pretty epic. I want to watch it. Let's see. Yeah, the guy at the conference. Oh my goodness. I want to watch that. It's turning back to purple. Let's see. I want to watch it. Oh my goodness.
Holy macaroni and cheese. Quadruple cheese. Migos. Quadruple cheese. Yeah. Where did we get long? Right here. Crazy. Yeah. Right here. Let's see what happens. Look at that. Oh my. Just taking a long dingdong. Oh my. Look at that. Look at that. Crazy. Jason Casper. What a fool. What an idiot. What an epic.
What an epic catch. What an epic catch. Oh man. Come on. We got the blue candle of hope, baby. Oh, come on. Oh no. It's turning back to purple. Oh my goodness. Oh my goodness. Come on, baby. What's going on? That was fun. That was fun. Honey packets give you a stiffy. I don't think so. But raw honey might.
Honestly, raw honey might. Epic until you stop out. Well, I didn't get stopped out. That's what made it so epic. That's what made it so epic. There was no stopout. You know, it's one of those things when you come down to the 786 like that with some bullish divergence, you got to go for it. You got to go for it.
And then not only did I catch the bottom, but I took profit right here. Literally at the top. I literally longed the bottom, shorted the top. That is crazy. You know, where did I take profits? Let's see. right here. I hit that TP1 on a from a different trading account than those of Western Europe or or Asia who are feeling much greater effects from these things effects who are feeling, you know, in
Look at that. Look at that. My TP1 boom, baby. And that was literally the top. You just have to find that out. You can't fake that stuff, man. That's funny. That is funny. Me and Bitcoin, man, we got this special thing going on. We got this special relationship. We got a special relationship. Me and Bitcoin.
We have a special relationship, you know. Mr. T says not a bullish divergence. All right, my bad, bro. Then it's not a bullish divergence. Okay, then whatever it is, it's a signal. All right, whatever it is, it's a signal. Okay. All right. Whatever it is, remember, I'm an idiot. I literally don't know what stuff is called.
I don't know, and I don't care. I don't know. And I don't care. I'll tell you one thing that I don't like about the trading community is when people get so wrapped up about what things are called and they suck at trading anyway. You know, they're like, "That's not a head and shoulders. That's not this.
That's not that." All right, fine. Whatever. Who cares what it's called, man? Does it make you money? If yes, then great. You know, people hold themselves back in life because they worry too much about the wrong stuff. Instead of worried about what stuff is called, worry about if it works. You know, like seriously, that's that's that's the truth right there.
That's the truth right there. That's the truth right there. Where did I pull the guns from to get TP1? I just want to front run the.5 Fibonacci. And 755 is a nice round number. Let's see if we make another high here. That's true. When we bounce through value area low, we go to value area high. So, let's see.
Let's see if we can't come all the way back up to value area high. You know, we got a ways to go. Valuary high coming in at 78.4 here. Let's see. It's pretty ambiguous. We do have bullish divergences. I mean, I think they're called bull divergences. I don't know. Apparently, other people know much better than me.
Whatever they're called, we have them. All right. Whatever they're called, we got them. All right. Whatever. Whatever they're called, we got them. It reminds me back in the day when I wanted to be a musician. All right, I wanted to be in a band, be a musician. And my friends, instead of trying to be in a band and trying to make it as a musician, they decided, I want to go to school for music.
I want to go to college to learn music so I then I can be in a band. All right. They went to college and got in debt. Guess what? I went out and I joined a dang band and started touring and doing that full-time. And they were still in college learning how to do it the right way. Learning from other people who know the industry.
What a waste. What a dang waste. You know, seriously, what a dang waste. Those people never did it. They never did it. They went to school. Some of them dropped out. Some of them got their degree. Never actually did music, you know. They went to college. They learned. They sure learned the right thing to do.
Honestly, the next resistance is probably going to be the support resistance flip at 75666 on AX. If we reclaim 75666, that's our first real sign of strength from this bounce here. You know, we got to do this, hold that. If we do this and hold that, guys, we're looking good. You know, then we can get a true introverted head and shoulders.
A true introverted HNS trading is making your beard turn gray. Well, what uh I mean I don't know what to say about that. Isn't that genetic? Is that genetic? Or maybe I don't know. I don't know what to say. I don't know. I mean, how old are you? I mean, right? Just happens, right? I'm scared for when my beard turns gray.
First, I need to be able to grow a full beard. You can't even grow a full beard. I hope it doesn't turn gray when I still just have like a 12-year-old Amish kid thing going on. That would be lame. That would be lame. Might be a good idea to go to uni if you want to be a surgeon. Man, that reminds me of my friends back in school.
They wanted to be surgeons. They went to school. Meanwhile, I just started cutting people open. They were going to college, getting into debt. I was actually out there being a surgeon. No, they never ended up doing it. They were too squeamish. They dropped out of school. Now they're in debt. Meanwhile, Jay Casper went to Walmart, got a got got the most expensive knife block possible.
Came with a sharpener, too. I'm not against college. I'm just saying in general for the whole music thing. If your goal is to be a full-time musician and you want to make that your career, why would you waste time and money going to college to learn about music when you could just go out there and start playing music and trying to start a band and and get it get it, you know?
It's just it's it's counterintuitive. People focus on the minors. They major on the minors. People major on the minors. Let's see. Look, we did hold this level. This This is actually a really nice looking bounce right here. This a nice looking bounce. It's a nice looking bounce. I like it. Let's see if we can continue to make higher highs and higher lows.
It's not rocket surgery. Exactly. It's not rocket surgery. It ain't no rocket surgery. Cutting open them dang rockets, you know. Oh man. Man, these longs have not been fun though. Let's be honest. The long from yesterday. The long from yesterday in the Casper crew. You guys remember this one? We took this long yesterday in the Casper crew.
What the heck? This one was painful. Just as painful as this one. We took this long yesterday at 10:17 a.m. It took forever. It took forever. But it ended up this was the trade. This was the trade. These three these three. These four these four here. So it played out all right. It played out all right throughout the night.
It played out all right throughout the night. And then we dumped this morning. I told everyone to take some dang profit here. I thought that we were going to I thought actually that we would get a higher low and bounce, but we didn't. We didn't. So, I did add to the trade and it got stopped out in profit.
But now we're pumping. Let's see if this one plays out, man. You know, in the Casper crew, give the trades, tell people when I'm taking it, tell when I'm taking profit, telling them when I'm longing, all this stuff. Give my limit orders, all that stuff. Jason Casperrading.com. Also guys, make sure to trade on Antarctic if you like low fees on a DEX that operates like a centralized exchange.
Beautiful mobile app. All right, KSEX lowest fees. Blofin and Yubit and also if you want to become a funded trader, client funding official partner client funding 15% discount on these uh funded accounts as well as Bitfunded Crypto Prop Firm. All right, all that stuff. the official sponsors of the channel.
Well, we're so far holding the level that we wanted to hold. It was that 15minute order uh fair value gap or whatever it's called. I don't know what anything's called. Didn't go to college. Shout out to Distance Music who's going to bed. God bless. God bless. God bless. It's going to be a wild ride soon.
The alert just went off. What alert? The short alert or the long alert? Short alert or the long alert? Is today Wednesday? Today's Wednesday. May the Lord bless you all in Jesus name. God bless you all. God bless you all. I appreciate all of you for being here. Honestly, it means a lot. It really does mean a lot that you guys watch my YouTube channel.
Thank you so much. From the bottom of my heart, thank you so much, guys. All 998 of you and all 669 who liked it and all eight who disliked. I love all of you. I do pray that God bless you and your families in many ways. You know, it's been a good day. It's been a good day. It's been a good FOMC. It's been some slow price action.
Hasn't been as volatile as we wanted, but maybe over the night we'll get some more volatility. You know, maybe overnight we'll get some more volatility. But um but yeah, I'm going to head out, guys. God bless you all and I'll see you later. Peace.
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