저자: 미상 · 외국인
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영상 결론: 피터 린치의 존슨앤존슨(J&J) 사례를 통해 주가 하락 시 내부 펀더멘털과 외부 요인을 분석해 저평가 기회를 찾는 방법을 설명함. 책과 저자 소개: 『피터 린치의 이기는 투자』가 입문자용으로 쉬운 언어로 쓰였다고 소개. 린치는 43~44세쯤 은퇴한 전설적 펀드매니저. 사례 배경: 1991년 주가 57달러에서 1993년 37~39달러로 하락. 제품·경영·마케팅 문제가 원인으로 의심받았으나 실제 재무 분석 결과 문제 없음. 내부 재무 지표: 연간 이익이 4배 증가, 직원 수는 77,400명에서 81,600명(4,200명 증가)으로 소폭 늘었으나 매출은 60억 달러(1983)에서 140억 달러(1993)로 약 2.5배 증가. 1989~1993년 매출 97억→140억 달러(약 1.5배)로 인력 효율 상승. 배당·자사주·재무: 32년 연속 배당 지급, 1993년 약 300만 주, 1983~93년 약 1.1억 주 자사주 매입. 자기자본 55억 달러, 현금 9억 달러. 제품·R&D: 신제품 매출 비중 34%, 매출의 8%(약 10억 달러)를 R&D에 투자. 밸류에이션: PER 11~12배, 업계 평균 16배로 저평가. 하락 원인과 외부 요인: 빌 클린턴 행정부의 의료개혁 논의로 헬스케어 업종 전반 불안이 확산되어 매도가 나왔다고 설명. 다만 해외 매출 약 50%, 비제약 매출 약 20%로 법안이 통과돼도 타격이 제한적이라고 분석. 결론과 교훈: 린치는 당시 J&J 매수를 신문에서 공개 추천했고 주가는 1995년 약 80달러(약 두 배)까지 상승. 투자자는 내부(재무·경영)와 외부(규제·거시) 요인을 구분해 분석해야 하며, 비싸게 사는 것이 아니라 이해 가능한 기업을 저가에 사는 것이 핵심이라고 강조. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목 가격 방향 예측 발언 없음.
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hello guys welcome you all to my youtube channel so in this video we're gonna discuss about one of the case study which has been given into this particular book uh peter lynch learned to and now many of you might have heard the name of this particular book and if you are someone who want to come into the stock market know the basics of stock market this is one of the book for you number one of the most simple language this book has been written this is the person who has written this particular book peter lynn peter lynch he was one of the biggest investor at his time he retired the age of 43 or 44 somewhere around that but yeah during the time he was a fund manager and he gave really really awesome returns okay and he was one of the best investor of all time and because of which this book is really really great not just because he was a great investor but the way it is written the easy language it is given when i personally came into the stock market we wanted to learn about stock market different different thing of stock market this was one of the book for me and this is one of the story uh actually case study kind of stuff of johnson johnson and i personally think for a new investor this one of the case study because you can learn a lot of depending so if you are not reading this book i have here the link in the description you can definitely purchase from that particular link it's the case study of johnston johnson jnj so all many of you people might have heard the name of johnston johnson is one of the biggest company not just in usa it's all around the world not just in u.s not just in india all around the world the company is famous is one of the biggest company how big the company is it ranked 11th among the most market capitalization company in usa with a market capitalization of almost dollar 453.31 billion market capitalization the company has as of today this is one of the biggest company and the market capitalization is really really huge and this is one of the case study which is from 1993 so what happened during the 1995 during that particular time during the 1991 the stock price of the johnson johnson was 57 and in 1993 the stock price of the johnson johnson went down to 37 in 1994 the annual report came of this particular company and this is the annual report analysis of the company like how peter lynch analyzed the company and ended up ended up investing in one of the multibagger of all time this is one of the case study of that way first of all the stock price of the company was falling continuously it fall from 57 uh to 39 so obviously this was a big fall from 57.39 the fall was really really big and because of picture the basically many people might have thinking that there might be some issue for example they want to do some issue with the uh mind with some issue with the managers of the company there might be some issue with the kind of the team might be not working that great the products might be not that great there might be some issue with the products because consumers might be not liking because it was a more of a consumer driven company so consumers might be not great there might be some other issue marketing not regret all these kind of issues might be there but all these problems was not there when the company annual report was analyzed they found out that the company profit has actually gone down gone up by four times so the profit of the company has gone up by four times in a corner by four times in a year and that was a really really great achievement for the company along with that the company this was one of the interesting thing and this was one of the point which i personally like the company had on 77 400 employees in 1983 and companies employs the increase to 81 600 employees with just increase of 4200 employees the company was able to generate the generate the sales from uh six or six dollars six billion sales in 1983 the company sells went to dollar 14 billion sales in 1993 so in a decade they just increased 4200 employees and their sales almost doubled almost 2.5 x increasing the sales took place this was a really great thing that they were able to efficiently get and they were able to get more and more efficiency from their employees and more efficient they were able to get more and more output from their employees at the same time this also one thing which is return that from 1989 to 1993 the company's sales went from nine point five and from dollar nine point seven billion dollar sales to fourteen billion dollars it means one point five x increase in the sales took place with the increase in them because basically in these four years they from 1989 to 1993 they decreased the employees but their sales increased by 1.5 so this was right the efficiency was at the top at the peak they were able to get a really great amount of efficiency the workers who are working for them the people who are working for them we are working at their best they were really really doing a great job so this was something which was really a great study i personally thought that the employee study was really great he has also given a lot of dividends so when our company use a dividend it's always great for the investor because the companies are not only but the investor is not only investing in the com in the company for the longer term when you get the dividend it work as a passive income for the investor and it is in this way when a company gives a dividend the passive income the the investor gets is really great for the investor in the same way and this particular company johnson johnson until 1993 and for the last one they mentioned the annual report that for the last one decade they were giving the continuous dividend each and every year but but the peter lee said that they didn't mention that for the last 32 years the company was giving continuous dividends for last 32 years if a company is able to give dividend for the last 32 years it's a big big thing at the same time there was a buyback which was happening so buyback is one of the positive thing if a company is buying the shares of its own this shows that the company has the really means the company believe in the business mode and the company basically thinks now the business might go after one level up or there might be some changes they might be bringing where it will take the company more up and the sharepoint price might went up and the company can get the benefit of it in that case only the company goes for the buyback of the shares in uh and in this part in the case of the johnson johnson the buyback took a place in 1993 in 1993 almost 3 million shares the buyback took place and and almost 110 million shares buyback took place in a decade from 1983 to 93 so all the things was great buyback is one of the great thing because whenever a company buybacks the shares the earning per share kind of increases so earning per share basically increases so it's really really great that earning per share increases when your earning question increases is a positive sign and the stock price should go up but in this case stock price was going down the another thing which was also great for the company is that the company's finances were really really great the company's equity has increased the company equity at that time was 5.5 billion um at the same time their 900 million cash was also present with them so obviously their finances were also really really great now for all these things for only great great thing happening then why was companies cost going down then there's another factor which was kind of been discussed into this is the product okay so now in fmcg we all know the product is something which is really important in healthcare fmcg these are b2c businesses and in this case what customers really want if not getting customers are not satisfied or the things the quality has gone down in that case basically uh the b2c business kind of struggles but in the case of johnstone johnson it was not the case at all this book peter is mentioned that the company was kind of really innovative company was working for the future they were bringing new products in that particular year 34 percent of the sales took place from the new products only at the same time company was investing eight percent of their sales money and whatever the money they were generating from their uh from their particular business the eight percent of that particular business they were putting into r d almost dollar one billion was put into research and development so obviously they were investing a lot for the future development of the product for the future products as well so all these things was not that uh not an issue at all they were even working on the innovations they are having a good financials their managing team was great the buyback was also taking place they were giving the dividend everything was great into this particular company so and so this was kind of a good indicator that the company is one of the best company and you're getting at the cheap cost because at that time the johnston johnson pe was only 11 and 12 and the industry fee at that time was 16 so it was a great indicator that you should definitely go for this particular company but why the company's cost was going down why the company per share file price was going down reason behind the share price of the company was going down was mainly due to the bill clinton so in that particular time bill clinton came and he he kind of came up with some of the health reforms and rules and reforms and different changes he was kind of seeing and there was a lot of time whenever he was going for a mic basically you know he was saying into uh something in a public meeting or basically conferences he was always saying about that health car health bill and everything like that obviously the health bill was not passed but people got bit skeptical people thought that health care might go down because of all these things and because of which many people started getting panic and got skeptical and because of all these things people started selling their shares and as a result of which the company per company stock price was going down and it was not just johnston and johnson many of the companies in the healthcare sector their price was going down as a result of this particular thing company stock gone down so it was a clear example that there was no internal issues there was complete external issues and it's a really really important you should understand that there was an international external issue but now you might be like external issues there was an external issue the external issue can also hamper the growth of the company it's totally true but in case of johnston johnson it is not true at all but this was not the case in johnson and johnson because 50 of their profits was coming from the international market so in case the bill would have been passed of that health reforms and everything uh still that they were there fifty percent of the business or the fifty percent of the profit couldn't have been affected at the same time that twenty percent of their profit was coming from the non-pharmaceuticals product so because of which they are twenty percent basically seven to eighty seventy to eighty percent of the profit wouldn't have hampered at all even if the that particular reforms would have been passed so and it johnstone johnson was not kind of an ordinary healthcare company their their kind of revenue split was quite well organized and it was really really well and because of which they wouldn't have been hampered even if that particular reforms would have been passed and all these things are showing that even the external factors are not affecting the company that much internal factors are quite smooth internal internally the company is one of the best company at that particular time even now as well so all these things kind of gave the indication to the peter lynch that this is one of the best best company peter lin says in the book that it just take take 20 to 13 we need to analyze all these things but people end up not analyzing the company and just putting the money into the company and they saw this this is all what happens in the company you need to see the external factory need to see the internal factor you need to see that if the company stock is going down what is the main reason peter niche at that time analyzed all these things and after analyzing all this thing peter lynch uh kind of uh told his investors to invest in the company basically he officially told in one of the newspaper as well that they should invest in the company when he told into the newspaper at that time and the stock price has gone from 44 to 37 till uh peter lynch was quite optimistic while confirmed that this particular stock will go at the time and the stock price went down by seven dollars he officially told in the newspaper that and they should go for this particular company johnson and johnson and within and in 1995 the stock price of the company was dollar eighty almost twice returned that particular company on almost hundred percent return johnson and johnson geo so this is a kind of a great example of a smart investor it's not that difficult you do not need to be a phd for analyzing the company you just need to understand the market and understand that what are the factors which gonna affect the company and is it really affecting the company first the main thing is the internals the financials of the company the management of the company reading about senior do not take much of a time and it's really really important whenever you purchase a mobile when you purchase any kind of electronic item in purchase any kind of other kind of stuffs we always see the specification like for example this particular laptop which i purchased i see a lot of specification i've seen everything and then i purchased that particular mobile in at that particular laptop in the same way many of you might have been also doing that for taking lot seeing a lot of videos and seeing lots of things there are lots of channels available for the stock markets that where people do analysis and lots of websites where the analysis is done so it's really really important to first analyze the company and then invest into it see that what are the external internal factors that gonna affect the company and you need to see that particular things and then ah invest in the company so inde so understand the business of the company and then invest into it that's really really important it was a really great case study where both the internal and external factor has been discussed really really well this was all from this video if you really like the video like it subscribe to my channel and share with your friends thank you for watching my video bye
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