저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 로드스터 비행 시연 이후 주가가 하락 혹은 일시 상승 후 되돌림되는 패턴이 반복됐다고 주장. 시연은 실적 발표 일주일 전에 맞춰져 있어 실질 가치는 분기 실적(마진 16.8%, 영업이익률 1.4%, 현금 유출 11억 달러)에서 결정된다고 강조. 로드스터 1000대 판매액 2.5억 달러는 시총 1.48조 달러 대비 미미하다고 지적. 대부분 투자자는 S&P500 인덱스로 테슬라를 약 2.13% 보유 중이므로 추가 매수보다 실적 지표 확인을 권고.
다듬은 글
Tesla made the car fly. Nine years after the first promise and six years after the announcement of the possibility of buying it, Tesla finally showed it to the world. This is not a car you can drive home in, it is a car you can only look at. And if you bought Tesla stock because of this, you did exactly what has cost shareholders money at every major presentation since 2019 .
The Cybertruck presentation, the same one where the window broke, is down 6%. Cybercab presentation in 2024—a drop of 8.8%. The event in September this year was a 5.9% drop. Three presentations, three falls, each time following the same scenario. I know how that sounds. Let me justify this. Take the first thousand Roadsters, a special edition that Tesla sold for $250,000 each.
Sell them all and the proceeds would be about $250 million . Tesla is valued at approximately $ 1.48 trillion. The flying car is a rounding error for the shares you are being offered to buy. And the real risk was never in the show itself. It consists of the date chosen right in front of him. In less than a week, Tesla reports its earnings.
And the conversation instantly switches from rockets to a company burning money with falling margins. This is the worst performance this year among the seven tech giants that Wall Street calls the "Magnificent Seven." Elon Musk knows this. He told you this himself a year before the plane took off in a single sentence that everyone laughed at and which almost no one remembers.
I'm going to show you exactly what he said, because when you hear it, you'll understand what this show was really about. And whether you bought Tesla stock or not, you almost certainly already own it through an index fund in your retirement account. So this video isn't about the car, it's about what you do with the Tesla you already own.
Before we go any further, let me be clear about what this is and what it is n't. This is not a video about the car being fake. She was flying. This is not a video about Tesla being a bad company or Elon Musk being a fraud. Many people have made fortunes from owning Teslas, and some of them will make even more.
This video is about the gap between the show and the business you actually own. These are two different things, and almost every costly mistake people make with these stocks happens in the space between them. Let's get everything straight from the beginning, because everything else depends on it. When you buy a share of a company's stock, you are buying a tiny share of its future earnings.
That's all the action is. The price on your screen is the market's best guess as to what all future earnings are worth. So what influences this assumption? Two very different things. The first is the business itself. How many cars were sold? How much money was received from each of them. Did they receive more cash than they spent?
This information is available four times a year. In the report called " profits". It's boring , full of tables, and it's what actually determines the value of a company. The second is hype. A presentation, a stage, a live broadcast watched by millions of people. Hype doesn't change a single number in business, but it does change people's attitudes toward business, and emotions move prices quickly.
That's the trap. The excitement builds up before the show. Not after him. People buy stocks weeks before the event, hoping it will be spectacular. By the time the curtain rises, hope is already priced in. So when the show ends and nothing has changed in the business, there are no more buyers left. Those who bought before are starting to sell.
And the price falls back. There's a saying on Wall Street for this. Buy on rumors. Sell on facts. Rumors are hype. Fact is the moment when everything becomes real, and the moment when those who got in early take the profits. This means that someone who buys the morning after a show because it was great is usually buying from someone who predicted it.
Now let's look at what actually happened, because you don't have to take my word for it. In November 2019, Tesla introduced the Cybertruck. The steel body withstood a sledgehammer blow without a single dent. Then the designer threw a metal ball at the armored glass, and the window shattered. Then he threw it at the second window, and it also broke.
The next day, Tesla shares fell about 6%. This is easy to explain. The demonstration was unsuccessful. So look at the following case where nothing went wrong. In October 2024, Tesla held a Robo-taxi event at a film studio site. They introduced the Cybercab, a two-seater car without a steering wheel or pedals.
Guests rode them around the playground. And here's the part that matters. In the 6 months leading up to that evening, stocks had risen nearly 70%, largely in anticipation of this very event. The next day they fell by 8.8%. Nothing is broken. The show remained a show. The excitement has simply died down.
Then in September of this year, Tesla held another Cybercab event, this time in Austin. The day before, shares rose 5.4%. The next day, the stock fell 5.9%, almost completely giving back what had been gained. Three shows, three different stories on stage, and the same movement on the chart the next day—down.
Now look at the Roadster. The morning after the car took off, Tesla shares rose about 4.5%. This is the first time in this entire scheme that the jump occurred the morning after the event, rather than before it. So if you bought a Tesla because of the Roadster, you didn't buy before the hype started.
You bought the hype itself. You paid that 4.5%, which lasted exactly one day in September. Now for the honest part, which makes this whole story useful and not just disturbing. The fall did not last long. 13 days after the Cybertruck was unveiled in 2024, Tesla reported earnings. Profits were significantly higher than Wall Street expectations.
The next day, the stock jumped about 22%. It was one of the best days in the company's history, and the stock was about 9% higher than it was before the show started. After Cybertruck, the same thing happened, but on a longer time frame. About 10 weeks after the window was broken, Tesla reported strong earnings and shares rose more than 10%, hitting a record high.
So, the show pushed the price down and the profits pushed it up. In both cases, what determined the further movement of the shares was not the event on stage. It was a boring report full of tables. This is the real lesson of this pattern. It's not that Tesla always crashes, it's that the show doesn't solve anything.
If you bought on the hype, the hype had nothing to give you anymore. What happened to your money after that was up to the business, which is why the date less than a week after the Roadster flight is more important than the flight itself. Let's evaluate the Roadster itself in the right proportion . Tesla first introduced this car in November 2017.
It was supposed to go into production in 2020 . It is now scheduled for 2028 , eight years late. In the latest quarterly report, Tesla's Roadster was still listed as being in development, with no designated factory for its assembly. Now about money. The first thousand cars are a special edition, selling for $250,000 each.
Sell all 1,000, and the proceeds will be about $250 million . That's a lot. That sounds like a lot until you compare it to the company. Before this event, Tesla's value was around $1.48 trillion. That $250 million is less than 0.005% of that amount. Imagine a family with an income of $100,000 a year being told they have found a way to earn an extra $17.
This is what the special version of the Roadster is for Tesla. Even if Tesla sells significantly more of the cheaper versions, this is a car that is produced in limited editions for a few wealthy buyers over the years. This could make Tesla more interesting. This won't make Tesla much more profitable.
So if the car can't change the business, why put it on stage with rockets less than a week before the company's report? There are three good reasons, and none of them have to do with Roadster sales. The first is the calendar. The week before a financial report, the headlines have to be about something.
Or about profits and cash, or about a car that took off . Such a spectacular show fills this space. Every article, every video, every conversation during this period is about flight, not about numbers. The second is history. The stock price is a story about the future, and Tesla is being valued as if it will become something more than just an automaker.
Rockets, robots, drone taxis. A Roadster powered by the engines of Elon Musk's own rocket company —that's the story in one image. It encourages us to think of Tesla as a company of the future , not as a company with declining profit margins. The third is the choice of moment for buyers. The show takes place exactly when people are most paying attention and least studying the numbers.
That's when excitement turns fans into buyers. And as we just saw, buying at the peak of excitement is the only strategy in this scheme that has never paid off on the same day. There is nothing illegal about this. There is nothing even unusual about this. Every company tries to present itself at its best before a difficult conversation.
The question is , do you notice which side it is? And now the phrase I promised you. In November 2025, at the Tesla shareholder meeting, Elon Musk spoke about this very demonstration. He said it would be the most exciting demonstration of any product in history. And then he added three words. Regardless of whether it works.
Think about it. Regardless of whether it works. He didn't promise a car you could buy . He promised a moment that people would watch. At the same meeting, he set a date for the demonstration. April first. April Fool's Day. And he joked in the audience that this date gave him the right to deny what was said.
And then he told them when the car would actually be built . 12–18 months after demonstration. Not during the demonstration. After her. So, a year before the car " flew," he described everything in his own words. The demonstration was the product. The hype was the main goal. The car itself will appear later, if at all on this schedule.
And the April date also shifted, all the way to mid-October, which fell less than a week before the earnings report. It's no secret. He said this publicly from the stage to the people who own the company. Almost no one connected it with their own money. And Musk saw this happening with his other company as well.
When SpaceX finally launched its giant Starship rocket into orbit for the first time this year, after years of explosions and failures, the moment they had been spending billions getting to, SpaceX stock plummeted that day . The rocket reached orbit. The stock price didn't follow her there. A great show and a profitable investment are two different things.
The person who runs both companies knows this better than anyone. The show shows you what Tesla wants you to experience. The earnings report shows you how much Tesla actually makes. And it will appear less than a week after the car "flew". So, here is the bar that a business must overcome. In the spring quarter, Tesla posted 16.8 cents of gross profit on every dollar of sales, compared to 17.2 cents a year earlier .
After paying for everything else, it was left with just 1.4 cents of operating profit on every dollar, down from 4.1 cents. And for the first time in over 2 years, it spent more cash than it received, about $1.1 billion more. While telling investors that it will spend more than $25 billion on factories, computers, and robots this year.
When the report comes out, pay attention to three things. First, the margin. Does Tesla leave more than 16.8 cents on every dollar of sales, or less? This will tell you whether the core business—the cars that actually exist—is getting stronger or weaker. Secondly, cash. Did the company get more money this time than it spent , or did it burn through even more than $1.1 billion?
A company can go through a lot, but not a lack of cash. Third, costs. $25 billion is being invested in robots, drone technology, and computers. Is any of this starting to translate into something customers pay for? If these three indicators move in the right direction, the stock will have a real reason to rise, and Roadster has nothing to do with it.
If they change in the wrong direction, no flying car will hold its price. In any case, it is these three indicators, not the flight, that will tell you the real value of your Tesla. Here's something that almost none of the live broadcast viewers thought about. If you have a retirement account, chances are a significant portion of it is in a fund that tracks the S&P 500, the 500 largest companies in America.
And Tesla is one of them, and far from the smallest. It is the ninth largest asset in the entire index, at approximately 2.13% of every dollar. So, let's translate this into real numbers. If you have $50,000 in an S&P 500 fund, about $1,065 of that is Tesla. If you have 100,000, then about $2,130 is a Tesla.
If you have 250,000, then about $5,325 is a Tesla. You already own it. You didn't choose her. You didn't keep an eye on the price and buy it the morning after the show. The fund bought it for you in proportion to the size of the company, and it will continue to own it and adjust the volume without your involvement.
This completely changes the question. The question is not whether you should own Tesla stock. You already own them . The question is whether you should have more of them than you already have, and whether a flying car is a good reason to do so. So what to actually do about it ? There are two loud options and one quieter one that beats both.
The first high-profile option is to buy shares through the show. The car flew away. The shares jumped. Everyone is talking about it, and it feels like you're jumping into the future before it even happens. But we just saw these promotions done on the day of the show three times in a row. You will be paying for hype that the business has not yet earned, days before the company reports.
The second loud option is the opposite. You decide that this is all a circus, sell all the Tesla shares you own, and abandon the company forever. But if you have an index fund, you can't really do that. You still own a Tesla because of it. And look what happened after the last two falls. Earnings pushed stocks higher.
Writing off a company because of how it advertises itself is also not a strategy. It's just a different feeling. The third way is quieter, and it costs nothing but patience. You let the show pass you by. You're waiting for a report full of tables and you're looking at three numbers . Is the company leaving more or less for each dollar of sales than last quarter ?
Does she receive more cash than she spends, or less? And does the money she spends turn into something that sells? This is business. This is what determined the stock price after every show before this one . Then you consciously determine your position. For most people, this position is simply what the index fund already provides, about 2%, which rises and falls with the actual size of the company.
If you have a real reason to own a larger one, a reason based on business and not live streaming, then you buy on a day when no one is cheering. None of this requires you to predict anything. It just requires that you take your time. A few honest limitations. If you are a long-term Tesla owner who buys on a fixed schedule every month, regardless of the news, none of this changes your actions.
The schedule doesn't matter on the show, and that's why it works. If you don't have an index fund, the part about Tesla , which you already own, doesn't apply to you, although the lesson about the show is still relevant. Past patterns are not promises. Stocks may rise after this event and continue to rise.
The point is not that Tesla always falls after the show. The point is , the show was never what defined it. And this is a working example, not personal financial advice. Tesla made the car fly. It's truly extraordinary, and it really took 9 years. But the stock price is not a reward for the spectacle.
This is an assumption about profit, and it is adjusted four times a year in a report that no one broadcasts live . The show was loud. The earnings report is quiet. And every time this happened before, it was the silent report that decided where the money would go. If you want to crunch the numbers yourself, whether it's how much of a company you already own through your funds or how much a stock is really worth to you, the calculator repository is open to members of this channel.
Every calculator ever released is there, indexed and ready to be copied. And I want to hear from you in the comments. Have you ever bought a stock right after a big announcement, and what happened next?
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