저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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빌 애크먼의 도미노피자 투자 설명 영상으로, 기업 품질과 예측 가능한 현금흐름을 중시하는 투자 원칙을 소개한다. 핵심 주장: 애크먼은 도미노피자를 장기 보유할 만한 우량 기업으로 평가하며, 주가가 저평가 구간(약 주당 330달러)에서 약 6% 지분을 매수했다고 설명한다. 투자 근거: 도미노는 순수 프랜차이즈 모델이며 자체 배달 인프라를 보유해 배달앱 수수료 부담이 적다. 2007년 약 4,200만 달러였던 잉여현금흐름이 2020년 5억 달러 이상으로 약 12배 늘었다고 언급된다. 사업 구조: 레스토랑 업종 투자 경험이 풍부하며(버거킹 지주회사, 치폴레 보유), 도미노 매수 자금 마련을 위해 스타벅스 지분을 매도했다고 밝힌다. 스타벅스는 고평가라기보다 기회비용 측면의 교체 매매였다. 투자 원칙: 예측 가능한 현금흐름과 지배적 해자를 가진 기업을 선호하며, 기술 변화가 빠른 순수 테크 기업은 피한다. 가격이 가치보다 크게 낮을 때 매수하고, 주가 괴리를 좁힐 수 있는 요인에 주목한다. 리스크·조건: 영상은 도미노 주가의 단기 전망이나 목표가를 제시하지 않으며, 장기 보유 관점만 드러난다. 로블록스는 너무 빨리 회복해 수익률이 제한됐다고 평가했다.
다듬은 글
billionaire investor Bill Ackman runs one of the most closely filed portfolios in all Finance the referral he runs named Pershing Square has assets under management of more than 10 billion dollars in sizeable Holdings in well-known companies these companies include Chipotle Hilton Lowe's and restaurant Brands which owns Burger King Tim Hortons and Popeyes Ackman recently announced two sizable changes to his portfolio just this past week it is important to note that Ackman is best known for being an activist investor meaning an investor who takes an ownership stake and a struggling company and then attempts to make changes to improve the company and as a result increase the stock price however Ackman is such a big believer in this one stock that this is not an activist stake it is traditional Buy and Hold investment take a listen to see what he had to say Roblox which is really an amazing business largely because it got to a price it was hard to earn the kind of excess returns we'd like to earn over time you know Kevin Johnson's done an amazing job the team's done an amazing job it's really a great great business but the stock just recovered too quickly too fast to to and I think investors will do well with Starbucks but for a very brief moment another restaurant company that we followed very closely over a long period of time dropped dramatically in price for reasons we didn't understand and we were able to swap Starbucks for Domino's Pizza oh okay well that's good we didn't get as much as we would like but we own a little under six percent of the company okay and that's been a standout in the pandemic right I mean can you talk a little bit about what else you've liked about Domino's so one obviously we like the restaurant industry um you know interestingly we've never lost money in investing in a restaurant company I think we've never not made a lot of money just to remind people you own Burger King's holding company and also Chipotle yes so it's a it's a space in history we know and we like uh Domino's is a pure franchising company and interestingly you know they were really first and best in sort of technology and delivery and they they they own their own dealer in infrastructure so they don't need to rely on the door dashes and ubereats in the world and that is actually an important competitive advantage in a world where you want to deliver you can deliver pizza for 7.99 it's hard to do that with a delivery service taking you know massive massive uh cut of the proceeds so it's it's an extremely well run company they've done an incredible job um on everything about the way we run their business uh to the way they grow their business into the way they you know allocate capital in their business so it's real standout we've admired it for years and we just it was always never cheap enough and then for for about five minutes it got cheap I don't know who sold or why but uh we started buying around 330 a share and then it very quickly moved up a lot before we get into the rationale behind Domino's investment let's address ackman's decision to sell out of his Starbucks stake he is clear in the interview that he doesn't think that Starbucks is significantly overvalued but rather he liked the opportunity and Domino stock provided a need to sell position to fund the Domino's purchase Starbucks stock has had quite a run over the past year more than doubling from the market lows of March in April 2020.
given the quick Rebound in the stock price it is reasonable to assume that the stock price may have gotten a little ahead of the underlying fundamentals of the company when you look at Bill ackman's portfolio it is clear that he is a fan of the restaurant industry this raises an important question why would Ackman one of the Premier hedge fund managers with access to tons of investment information and opportunities concentrate such a large part of his portfolio on this one industry which is considered by many to be highly competitive and even better yet how does Domino's line up against his strict investment criteria take a listen to Ackman explain what he looks for in an investment and then we'll examine the Domino's decision to invest go through that strategy and go through how it works and when you come you know maybe you'll override that portfolio manager or not but what what's the checklist you kind of go through so we look for very high quality businesses what we describe is simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant businesses a business that Warren Buffett would describe as having a mode around it right if you if you believe that the value of anything Financial is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life well you need to know how much cash is going to generate over its life so it's a business quality to us is the single most important uh Criterion for determining what's interesting because if we can't predict the cash flows we don't know it's worth we don't know what it's worth we can't invest so we figure out what it's worth figure out how good the business is how predictable will this cash flows be from a railroad or a Spirits company or a real estate company a shopping mall business uh and then we say okay well where's the trading and if there's a wide gap between price and value you can buy for 50 cents it's worth a dollar twenty and then we're going to take a hard look and try to understand why it trades at a deep discount and uh once we understand the reasons we decide well these things that we can solve you know or can we in light of the situation uh the circumstances can we be influential in changing these these levers that can cause this valuation discrepancy to narrow and is this a business that while we're causing the valuation discrepancy to narrow we can also perhaps contribute to the valuation growing uh and those things are true we found something that looks quite interesting for us the first point Bill Ackman makes is that he looks for a business that is dominant or to use a Warren Buffett term has a strong mode around it it is clear that Domino's has been able to develop a strong mode over time after gaining your reputation during the early 2000s as one of the world's worst pizza chains dominoes went through a major shift in late 2009 the company started airing self-deprecating commercials that openly acknowledge their Pizza wasn't good and they were committed to upgrading their product this turnaround was successful and helped dominoes establish a strong brand and loyal customer base this strategy helped dominoes become the largest pizza chain in America based on sales higher even than competitors such as Pizza Hut and Papa John's the company has been around for more than 60 years and it wouldn't be surprising for dominoes to be leading restaurant brand 60 years from now the second criteria Ackman has is that a business needs to produce steady and predictable cash flow this helps Acme determine a value for a stock and ensure that he's buying for less than the true value of the company Domino's easily checks the Box on this criteria the company has produced positive cash flow since it became a public trade company in 2004 even during the great financial crisis Domino's has also been able to grow its cash flows substantially over time from 42 million dollars in 2007 to over 500 million dollars in 2020.
this is a 12 times growth in free cash flow in just a 13-year period this is impressive for any company but especially for a company like Domino's that operates in the highly competitive restaurant industry something else that Ackman mentioned is that a company needs to be simple with little technological change in packing the industry it operates in this helps acmin more accurately predict the future operating results of the company or to put it another way the ability of that company to produce cash flow over time while some of best performing stocks the past decade have been technology focused think Netflix Zoom Nvidia and Tesla Ackman avoids these type of stocks because of the uncertainty around the impact technology can have on the business listen to Acme in this video explain the impact technology can have on stocks bottom line is every company today is a technology company whether you're a Lowe's Home Improvement Starbucks um or you know or a pure technology company we've never really invested in what I would call a pure technology company I think uh waymo or a self-driving business you know with respect to person Square taunting Holdings we want to buy a business that we can predict what it's going to look like over a long period of time and therefore we can predict what it's worth uh I think it's very difficult to Value what I so-called pure technology company compared to high growth tech companies Domino's core product offering Pizza likely doesn't have to worry about becoming obsolete due to a new technological breakthrough Pizza has been a staple of the American diet for generations and that trend is not likely going to change anytime soon because of this Ackman is better able to project the cash flows that dominoes will produce better than a high-tech software company for example Ackman needs to buy the stock for less than the true value of the business Ackman was able to do this when he bought Domino's stock after a pretty substantial pullback in the company new stock price while Acme admits they doesn't know exactly what caused the pullback in Domino stock price he sure took advantage of it buying a six percent ownership stake in the company for an average price of around 330 dollars per share so there you have it it seems like this investment decision fits pretty well within ackman's portfolio it'll be interesting to see just how long he plans to hold on to this investment thank you for watching make sure to like And subscribe if you found this analysis helpful and interesting talk to you soon
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