저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜섬은 미국 증시가 2.5표준편차 이상의 '슈퍼버블' 국면이라 보고, 과거 1929·1972·2000·2021 사례처럼 급락 전 베어마켓 랠리가 나타날 수 있다고 주장한다. 실질 이익률 하락과 PE 축소(약 20→15)를 전망하며, 인플레·재정긴축·중국 부동산·기후·자원·화학물질·인구감소 등 장기 리스크를 열거한다. 상대적으로 저평가된 미국 외 시장(신흥국·일본)을 선호하고 엔화 강세(20~30%) 가능성을 언급한다. 구체적 자산별 1~3개월 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
the stock market is going crazy breaking records but something feels off it's like a puzzle and that's what we're going to try to figure out today with Jeremy Grantham a really famous investor in his company GMO Grantham started GMO way back in 1977 and he's known for going against the grain and investing and being able to spot market bubbles back in 2015 GMO was managing $18 billion in asset so they know what they're doing their whole philosophy revolves around this idea called version to the mean basically what that means is that no matter how high or low prices get there they always swing back to their historical averages think of it like a rubber band you can stretch it up but eventually snaps back that's how GMO makes predictions about the market looking seven years ahead they look at tons of historical data to find anything that's out of whack and use that to guide their Investments and Grandam has got a pretty impressive track record I mean he saw the Japanese asset bubble coming in the late 80s he avoided the dotcom bubble in the 90s and he even minimized his exposure to the housing bubble in the mid 2000s he's not your average investor that's for sure now fast forward to 2008 Grantham was really critical of how the financial system handled the credit crisis said it was a lack of foresight Inc competence and blamed the authorities for ignoring all the risky Behavior and the growing asset bubbles he said the signs were there but nobody wanted to see them but here's where things get really interesting March 2024 the US Stock Market is hitting record highs but all the global economic indicators are pointing towards trouble it's like a weird contradiction and Grantham calls it the great Paradox his perspective might help us understand what's going on with this strange Market Behavior so let's dig into this Paradox together and look at gmo's take on the US and Global markets we'll see where Grantham thinks the opportunities are in this crazy environment and face those big long-term problems that are looming on the horizon now Grantham talks about something called super bubbles he says markets don't just have regular bubbles they have these massive ones these super bubbles he defines them as times when the market goes 2.5 standard deviations above its historical Trend statistically that's huge and according to Grantham the US has seen three of these super bubbles in modern history in 1929 in 2000 and more recently in 2021 yeah that recent craziness in the market gram thinks it's a classic Super Bubble he even throws 1972 in there as an honorary member of the Super Bubble Club even though it wasn't as big on paper the market dropped a significant 62% in real terms after at burst the thing about super bubbles is they always pop and the higher they go the further they fall Grantham says there's a pattern to how these super bubbles play out first you have the bubble forming all hyped up and driven by irrational exuberance then there's a setback some little Tremor in the economy or politics that makes investors pause and think like a reality check a moment of Doubt then you get the bare Market rally where investors allured back in by lower prices they think everything's on sale but gram says these rallies are tricky they're fueled by short-term thinking and a false sense of security and then comes the grand finale the fundamentals fall apart and the market crashes that's the painful part the bubble pops and investors are left holding the back now let's go back to that bare Market rally for a second Grantham points out that within super bubbles these rallies tend to be fast and furious why because investors get fixed on those previous high prices they think a stock that was worth $100 must be a bargain at $50 they lose sight of the big picture and history backs this up look at the crash in 1929 between November 1929 and April 1930 the market ried 46% recovering 55% of its losses from the peak same thing happened in 1973 the summer rally after the initial drop recovered 59% of the S&P 500's losses it's a recurring theme even a bubble followed this script in 2000 the NASDAQ which was at the heart of the tech craze bounced back 60% of its initial losses in just two months and guess what in 2022 the S&P 500 had regained 58% of its losses from its June low peaking on August 16th sound familiar gram says these bare Market rallies happen because economic data lag behind numbers like corporate profits and employment figures they don't show the changes in the economy right away it takes time for them to catch up and it's during this lag this period of uncertainty that these rallies take hold investors see the old data and think hey things aren't that bad but the truth is the fundamentals are already starting to crumble so why are these super bubbles often followed by economic turmoil Grantham has a theory he thinks they tend to happen after long periods of economic growth and Market Euphoria by the time the bubble Peaks the economy looks fantastic full employment strong GDP P growth low inflation record profits but it's a mirage this is what happened in 1929 in 1972 in 1999 and even in Japan which had its own epic Super Bubble in the late 80s the problem is when everything looks this good there's only one way for things to go down GMO has this model they call the explaining PE model it helps explain how these different factors work together doesn't try to justify market prices but it shows the financial inputs that have historically explained price to earnings ratios according to this model the first in the current Super Bubble was driven by Rising inflation and you might be thinking wait a minute inflation went up in 2021 but the market kept climbing but Grantham thinks this was an exception maybe because of new investors who'd never seen inflation before or maybe because people had too much faith in the fed's ability to control it what every reason the gap between inflation valuations was unusual gml predicts that the next stage of this Market correction will be driven by Falling profit margins they think the explained PE ratio will drop towards 15 from its current level of just under 20 and remember the actual PE ratio jumped from 30 to 34 in mid August during that bare Market rally so there's a lot of room for things to fall and here's the thing if the models right and falling profit margins are the next Domino to fall then not only will the PE Ratio go down but earnings themselves will also decrease that means the market could fall even further than GMO is predicting now in his papers waiting for the last dance and let the wild rumpus begin granon makes a simple but important point he says those three super bubbles in the US 1929 1972 and 2000 were all marked by crazy investor behavior in those sky- high valuations but he didn't really go into the underlying economic fundamentals except to say that he expected some deterioration and here we are we've seen the first stage of the bubble bursting in that big bare Market rally and the economic fundamentals look worse than anyone expected it's like the world is finally waking up to the fact that this party can't last forever inflation is eating away at our purchasing power and geopolitical tensions are causing disruptions all over the place and those are just the short-term problems the long-term challenges things like demographics resource scarcity and climate change they're getting worse so let's talk about those short-term problems first up we've got the food energy and fertilizer crisis the war in Ukraine has made a bad situation even worse especially in Emerging Markets think about this Russia and bellarus account for a whopping 40% of global pot ash exports pot ash is a key ingredient in fertilizer and disruptions to its Supply have sent prices for wheat corn and soybeans through the roof these Rising food and energy prices are causing a lot of pain particularly in vulnerable countries we've already seen the Sri Lankan economy practically collapse under this pressure and the energy shock well pretty much guaranteed to push Europe into a recession the US market has often ignored problems overseas but with global growth slowing down the impact is bound to be felt eventually then there's China the engine of global growth for the past three decades they're dealing with a whole bunch of challenges right now the covid-19 pandemic is still causing problems and their property Market which is a maj major driver of their economy is under immense pressure does that sound familiar it's like the housing bubble but on a much larger scale and this weakness in real estate isn't just limited to China we're seeing it globally including in the US where home building is dropping Like a Rock mortgage rates are crazy high making it impossible for many people to buy a home and in countries with floating rate mortgages it's even worse remember real estate has always been a big factor in economic stability so when it starts to wobble we should all be paying attention on top of all that we're also coming out of one of the biggest physical tightenings in hist history governments all over the world are cutting back on those covid-19 stimulus programs and this is going to have a ripple effect historically there's been a strong link between fiscal tightening and shrinking profit margins it's like a bunch in the gut for businesses and just to add another layer of complexity the US government has introduced this new tax on stock BuyBacks some people see this as a sign that the government is changing its stance on the whole labor versus Capital thing a battle that Capital has been winning for decades this could lead to more Anti-Trust action which would be good for consumers but potentially painful for investors so yeah the short-term Outlook is to put it mildly turbulent buckle up folks because it's about to get even more interesting next we're going to dive into those long-term challenges that are starting to rear their ugly heads things are getting real stay tuned okay so let's talk about those long-term problems you know the ones that seemed far off but are kind of knocking on our door now that climate change for instance not that long ago is a big debate but now I think only the most stubborn people deny it's happening last year wasn't just the hottest year on record since we started keeping track it was the hottest by a huge margin and get this if you look at the latest data up to January 31st of this year we've actually crossed that 1.5 degre C threshold above pre-industrial levels for those who thought those numbers didn't matter well maybe the sheer number of climate related disasters each costing over a billion dollars might make them think twice we're talking floods droughts wildfires you name it globally last year climate change wiped out over 1% of GDP that's a pretty big chunk considering the total Global growth was only 2.9% and as usual it's the poorer countries that are getting hit the hardest think about this these crazy atmospheric rivers are dumping a whole months worth of rain in a single day just goes on and on it's like a constant barrage of climate chaos and it's only getting worse even the insurance companies are freaking out premiums are going through the roof as they try to deal with the rising cost of all this climate related damage and in some places getting insurance is becoming almost impossible it's a pretty clear sign that the risks are getting too big to handle now let's switch gears and talk about resource limitations this wasn't a major issue until around the year 2000 when commodity prices started to climb after going down for a whole Century GMO has this index that tracks 34 different Commodities it dropped from a value of 1900 all the way down to 30 in 2002 but now it's har around 65 and it's even hit 100 three times since 2002 most recently in 2022 that steady decline we saw from most of the 20th century is over at best prices are fluctuating but with a lot of volatility personally I think commodity prices are going to hit new highs over the next 20 years especially for essential stuff like copper and nickel Cobalt these are all critical materials for that green economy transition everyone's talking about and demand is only going to go up this change is mainly because of China's incredible growth since 1990 it's wakeup call that the days of cheap and ptical resources are coming to an end when you're dealing with finite resources eventually they start to run out we're already seeing shortages popping up everywhere mixed in with the occasional Surplus and price drop that's just how Commodities work but those days of constantly declining prices are gone and then there's the problem of toxicity the levels of toxic stuff in our environment are scary High thanks to all the Plastics and chemicals we're producing Plastics are great because they last forever but that's also the problem they don't break down easily and when they do break down into smaller pieces they actually become more dangerous we're finding microplastics and even nanoplastics in our blood our brains we all in the Clans pretty much every living thing on the planet the creepy part is we don't really know what the long-term health effects of these tiny plastic particles are because we haven't had enough time to study them properly not exactly reassuring is it the amount of plastic waste is insane it's estimated to way more than all the animals on Earth combined and it's growing by half a billion tons every year and get this the industry is still predicting huge growth in plastic production for the foreseeable future it's like we're addicted to something that's slowly blazoning us but wait it gets even worse chemicals are even sneakier than Plastics there's something like 350,000 different chemicals being produced on a massive scale and most of them haven't been tested for their toxicity in combination with each other that's how they exist in the real world and very few have even been tested individually at least 10,000 of these chemicals are what they call Forever chemicals they have bonds that can't be broken down naturally they just build up in the environment and we have no clue what the long-term consequences will be and a good chunk of these chemicals not just the forever ones are endocrine disruptors that means they mess with our hormones and disrupt the reproductive systems of insects amphibians and yeah even mammals including us this constant exposure to man-made chemicals is making our environment less and less hospitable to life we're seeing insect population's collapsing and human fertility rates are going down it's all connected when you combine this chemical assault with all the reasons women have for delaying or avoiding having kids it doesn't paint a very Rosy picture for population growth we're already seeing birth rates declining and shrinky workforces in a lot of developed countries and this trend is only going to continue and as the population gets older we'll see slower economic growth and increased demand for resources Japan's a good example of what happens when a population starts to shrink they've been dealing with population decline for 30 years and their group of 18year olds is now less than half of what it used to be now I have a r never extrapolated from Japan their culture and social contract are unique but it's still a cautionary Tale the point is all these long-term challenges are starting to have real world impacts and they're going to affect the global economy in a big way we're seeing it in slower growth rates Rising inflation and more geopolitical instability the question is can we adapt and find Solutions before these problems get completely out of control so let's bring it back to the markets the big question for investors is can we take advantage of the more reasonably priced markets outside the US and make some money before all these long-term problems catch up with us can we outrun the storm so to speak the Paradox that worries me is that the US market is priced for Perfection with Skyhigh valuations and record profit margins but the reality is we're facing a world that's anything but perfect we've got geopolitical turmoil Rising social unrest and a whole bunch of environmental and demographic challenges that are starting to bite the disconnect between Market optimism and real world risks is honestly pretty alarming now GMO is known for their long-term value Orient approach to investing and right now they're seeing more opportunities outside the US and markets that haven't been caught up in the same speculative frenzy like emerging market for example a lot of emerging market equities especially those in the value or low growth categories are trading at prices that are either fair or even cheaper than usual there are stark contrast to those high growth stocks that have been pushing the US market to new highs GMO is particularly bullish on Japan they believe that Japan is making slow but steady progress in improving their corporate governance and economic policies and they're confident that the Yen will event po get stronger against the dollar maybe even by as much as 20% or 30% interestingly over the past few months non US Stocks have started to show some signs of life even as the US market fueled by the AI craze keeps soaring to new heights Japan in particular has been doing well and the truth is these markets have a lot more room to grow than the US with significantly less risk when that bubble finally bursts now for those of you who are brave enough to really dig into these long-term challenges GMO was putting out a series of six papers that examine each issue in detail I high recommend checking them out but be warned they're not for the faint of heart you might want to have a strong drink on hand it's going to be a wild ride but hey that's what we do here right we explore the Big Ideas the uncomfortable truths and the challenges ahead because if we don't understand these issues we can't hope to solve them so stay tuned folks we've got a lot more to cover and don't forget to hit that subscribe button so you don't miss a single episode so where does all this believe us we have the US market it's like it's on a rocket ship completely ignoring all the warning signs it's classic irrational exuberance you're driven by that AI hype and this belief that this time it's different but as jering G Grantham and GMO have shown us time and time again history tends to repeat itself super bubbles no matter how big they get they always pop and when they do the Fallout can be pretty bad but there's a bright side markets outside the US like emerging markets in Japan they offer a more balanced a more realistic investment landscape they're not immune to Global problems but they're not priced for Perfection either so what's the takeaway here for me it's a reminder to stay skeptical to question everything and to look beyond the hype the market doesn't always make sense and it definitely doesn't always reflect what's really happening in the world if you're feeling a little uneasy about the US market right now you're not alone gmo's advice is to diversify look for value and be prepared for a possible Market correction it's not about being negative it's about being realistic remember knowledge is power and in times like these staying informed and thinking for yourself is more important than ever well that wraps up our discussion for today thanks for joining me and do forget to subscribe for more insights and Analysis like this see you next time
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