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there will be wealth generation around the world like we've never seen before. Uh and I think with emerging markets proclivity towards stable coins and the digital money world, I think uh bitcoin will be a a very big part of their savings. The correlation between gold and bitcoin has been 0.14 almost nothing.
And I found that interesting. Kathy Wood's investment framework has never been about isolated assets or short-term price movements. It has always been about identifying regime shifts, moments when technological convergence rewires the global economy, reshapes capital flows, and redefineses what constitutes money value and productivity.
In her latest discussion, Wood revisits Bitcoin not as a speculative instrument, but as a monetary technology evolving alongside stable coins, artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, healthcare breakthroughs, and even space exploration. One of Wood's most important acknowledgements is also one of her most misunderstood.
She openly admits that stable coins have taken on a role she once believed Bitcoin would dominate more quickly in emerging markets, acting as an immediate hedge against currency debasement and the destruction of purchasing power. . We did uh focus on stable coins usurping one of the roles we thought Bitcoin would play in the emerging markets and that is the insurance policy uh the hedge against destruction of wealth and purchasing power.
Stable coins are are serving that purpose much more now than we expected. But that doesn't mean that the digital gold rule is going away. In fact, if anything with the gold price hyperventilating uh that we see with inter intergenerational wealth transfer, you know, a lot more price appreciation because of digital gold and even in the emerging markets right now, they are hand-to-mouth.
But if we're right and all of the new technologies that we uh discuss in Big Ideas 26 come to pass and proliferate around the world, there will be wealth generation around the world like we've never seen before. uh and I think with emerging markets proclivity towards stable coins and the digital money world, I think uh bitcoin will be a a very big part of their savings.
The correlation between gold and bitcoin has been illuminating. Put it in a year-end letter that I did from 20 through today. So we caught the uh the swish from COVID and we've caught the various corrections. Uh since then the correlation between gold and bitcoin has been 0.14 almost nothing and I found that interesting.
Um you know it we we we throw it in there as digital gold and it is it is digital gold. uh but there's still a lot of education I think to take place uh over the next 5 to 10 years just trying to get some perspective around gold and how does this compared to what has happened historically to gold uh now what we did is we took the market cap of gold relative to M2 now it was USM2 and uh but I don't think it would be much different and and the The reason we used USM2 is we could get it back uh through the Great Depression.
Uh and so if you look and we did this today in our economics meeting, if you look at gold relative to M2, uh we're at a 1.56 and uh there's been only one time we've been higher. That was in the Great Depression when we got to 1.71. And back then the way we got there was gold was flat. It was fixed at 20.67.
Uh but the money supply imploded. So the denominator imploded sending that ratio up to all-time highs. The only other time it's been anywhere near here was in the late 70s when of course uh we were having gone uh off the gold exchange standard. We'd been a a decade or more in um in a a very bad inflation in inflation interest rates at that time were at the in the double digits.
Uh but then once we once you know the vulkar/reagan plan started working and I think we're in a very similar environment right now. Um I think Trumpomics is regonomics on steroids once that started to gain traction and people understood the returns on invested capital in the United States were going up relative to those in the rest of the world.
the gold th that ratio went down down down down for 20 years 20 years until 2020. So I think we're in rarified territory. If I were a holder of gold, I would be uncomfortable just based on the perspective I've just shared. You'd be selling, Kathy. And I'd be selling. I'd be buying Bitcoin big time. We have featured Bitcoin in big ideas since 2017 when we started doing big ideas.
uh and I remember in the early days as we were trying to help people understand what is this in our markets uh we we were appealing to tech investors and I remember saying well okay you know what VoIP is VIP VOIPE well this is mo money over IP so I mean we were trying we were trying to get everybody to relate uh to the idea that this was a new technology ology too and was going to be transformational in a way that uh many people in our industry did not expect.
And you know as recently as it was 2020 Goldman Sachs put out a piece about the 10 myths uh about Bitcoin or I don't know if that was uh our retort was we're debunking these myths. Those were I think they were 10 disses. the reason Bitcoin wasn't a real thing. And uh so we did our 10 uh ways to debunk those myths.
So think about that. That was as recently as as 2020. And then of course uh we we moved into COVID and you know all kinds of things happened but you know the the massive liquidity around uh around the world uh sloshed into Bitcoin of course and all crypto assets and then everybody wanted to learn about it.
So our big ideas and by that time we were starting to delineate uh why we thought Bitcoin had miles to go in terms of price appreciation and we delineated it by category. digital gold, institutional uh investment in a new asset class, uh emerging market insurance policies against the destruction of wealth either by inflation or outright or outright confiscation of wealth uh and so forth.
Wood reminds us how recently Bitcoin was still considered a fringe curiosity by mainstream finance. ARK has featured Bitcoin in its big ideas research since 2017, long before institutional endorsement became fashionable. In the early days, explaining Bitcoin required analogies aimed at tech investors.
One of Wood's favorites was money over IP, likening Bitcoin to VOIP's transformation of telecommunications. It was a framing designed to convey that Bitcoin was not merely an asset, but a protocol, one capable of reshaping monetary infrastructure itself. We do believe that the the biggest revenue generating opportunity during the next 5 to 10 years is autonomous mobility of all kinds.
Autonomous taxis, drones for delivery, air taxis and so forth. Uh we think the taxi opportunity alone could scale to um I think from a market valuation point of view $ 36 trillion from almost nothing. Now in the next 5 to 10 years in other words the wholesale transformationation of transportation that is the largest AI project we think on earth now the most profound AI project and maybe some here will disagree but uh you'll understand where we're coming from the most profound AI project is in healthcare we are going to diagnose diseases oh yeah
uh in their earliest stages or before as they're setting up. Uh we're going to collapse the cost and time for drug discovery and we're going to cure disease. Uh so that's the second. But then and I think um I think Alex touched on this maybe a bit, but this idea that really we have two new worlds opening up.
And this is why I'm not uh pessimistic on employment. Uh technology, the history of it is it's a net job creator. You can't imagine what a lot of the jobs are, but just ask uh chat GBT or and and make sure to include futurists and and science fiction, but you'll get all kinds of ideas. So, what are the two worlds?
Digital, when you think about it, many people think, "Oh, I've been there, done that, internet." No, no, no, no. We did not have immutable property rights until very recently thanks to blockchain technology. So we are now just entering a a and creating a digital world that can be monetized and and can evolve because of the monetization in ways that we cannot understand right now.
Uh maybe we can imagine but and then the other new world is space. space. When I hear Elon talk about, you know, the orbit orbital data center opportunity um with solar powering everything and taking us away from the bureaucracy here down on Earth and the not in my backyard yard here on Earth. Um, we've got that, we've got the moon, we've got Mars, we've got a lot to do.
And, uh, so all of this has to do with the convergences of technologies. And, uh, I'll just so Tesla is robotics, energy storage, and AI. Healthc care is DNA sequencing, AI, and crisper gene editing. And if we didn't have Elon and this movement towards reusable rockets, uh, we would be nowhere in space.
But now he's opening up space in a way that most people, I'm going to say 5 to 10 years ago did not believe would be possible. Kathy Wood's thesis is not a Bitcoin maximalist manifesto, nor is it a dismissal of traditional assets. It is a framework for understanding how exponential technologies reshape value creation and how money itself must evolve alongside them.
Stable coins may dominate transactions. Gold may still anchor legacy wealth, but Bitcoin in Woods view sits at the intersection of technology, scarcity, and trust in a way no prior asset ever has. As autonomous systems, AIdriven healthcare, digital property rights, and space economies come online, global wealth generation could accelerate beyond historical precedent. In that environment, Bitcoin is not rendered obsolete. It becomes foundational.
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