저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 비트코인의 장기 강세 시나리오(2030년 150만달러)를 유지한다고 밝히며, 최근 금 급등과 비트코인 부진의 괴리를 설명한다. 스테이블코인이 신흥국에서 달러 대체 수단이 되면서 비트코인 역할이 일부 잠식되고 초기 투자자 매도가 있다고 진단한다. 테슬라는 2029년 목표가 2600달러를 제시하며 로보택시와 휴머노이드 로봇을 핵심 성장동력으로 꼽는다. AI·로보틱스 펀드(ARKQ 계열)는 조정 후 저가매수 기회로 보며, 유전체 펀드는 AI 기반 신약개발로 비용·기간 단축을 기대한다. 불황은 기술 도입을 늦추지만 회복 후 급성장으로 이어진다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
the biggest risk is more macro from that point of view. In our long-term forecast, which our bull case for uh 2030 has been uh $1.5 million, uh that would have taken $2 to $300,000 off of that price target. But what else has happened in the last year? We've seen gold um really go parabolic and uh bitcoin has not done the same.
Well, how can that be? It's digital gold. We thought we are living through a period of profound technological transition. One that in Kathy Wood's framework rivals the industrial revolution in scope and consequence. But unlike prior revolutions driven by a single breakthrough, this one is powered by convergence.
in life sciences all evolving simultaneously and reinforcing one another. Wood's conviction around Bitcoin has not weakened, it has increased. She characterizes Bitcoin as the first global digital private monetary system in history. The most important word in that description is private. In her view, Bitcoin operates on rules-based monetary policy independent of government oversight.
It is algorithmic, transparent, and globally accessible. ; We do believe uh and our conviction has increased that uh Bitcoin is the first global digital private meaning no government oversight rules-based most important part of it monetary system in history that is a very big idea. Now what has happened uh in in the last year or so?
Stable coins have uh have been usurping one of the roles that many of us thought Bitcoin would play. uh in the emerging markets uh people who are living handto-mouth meaning they don't have a lot of savings uh they would much prefer uh the the dollar and stable coins are backed pretty much 100% uh by dollar or dollar-based assets.
uh and so that is their preferred um uh insurance policy against their own currencies devaluation and the loss of purchasing power and wealth. Uh so from that point of view in our long-term forecast which our bull case uh for uh 2030 has been uh $1.5 million uh that would have taken $2 to $300,000 off of that price target.
But what else has happened in the last year? We've seen gold um really go parabolic and uh Bitcoin has not done the same. Well, how can that be? It's digital gold, we thought. Well, if you look at the correlation between gold and Bitcoin, you'll see it's very low, especially since 2019, uh, since more traditional investors have become have been getting involved with it.
The correlation is 0.14. So, almost no correlation. Um, but if you z if you zoom out and you look at the longer term price chart of Bitcoin, what you'll see is gold often leads and certainly in the last two cycles, Bitcoin's uh performance. Uh, so gold is a leading indicator uh in in in at least the last two cycles.
Um, we think the other thing going on is we're seeing a lot of OGs uh selling. Those who were very early on, very early adopters of Bitcoin are selling. Now, why are they selling? Well, uh, according to some of them, you know, Bitcoin has lost the plot. Too too much traditional finance is get or financial players are getting involved.
uh and from our point of view all along and this is in uh our collaboration with Dr. Arthur Ler known for the LER curve. Uh he has said the more that Bitcoin becomes involved in the traditional financial ecosystem, meaning traditional financial institutions start adopting it, uh the the stronger his conviction will be that it is indeed uh the new global monetary system I described.
So our conviction has actually gone up uh as uh bitcoin has gone down here. You can tell from price action recently uh well let's just say in the last year anything with space and defense tech has had very strong performance. So the market is beginning to understand how big that opportunity is. Uh and the same thing with uh AI.
So our a AI and robotics fund ARKI uh over the last year or two that has done exceedingly well. True. It's had a correction and uh from our point of view uh this is more a buy the dip moment. the the the fund that has been the most challenged uh and therefore where we're seeing the most skepticism is the genomic fund ARKG and as I mentioned before we believe that the most profound application of AI will be in healthcare from the point of view of collapsing the cost and time to discover new drugs.
Uh so going from 2.4 4 billion including failures along the way down to 600 million 600 or 700 million during the next 5 years and going from 13 years uh to 8 years or less. The biggest risk is more macro. Our models are are focused on something called Wright's law. And Wright's law helps us figure out the learning curve associated with each technology.
Robotics, energy storage, AI itself, the most the biggest catalyst out there, uh blockchain technology and multiomics [clears throat] technologies in the life science space. And those learning curves are expressed in cost declines. Those learning curves depend very importantly on unit growth. If we went into a worldwide depression, I think that would uh that would delay these technologies.
The irony is during a depression or a serious recession is when many companies are looking for new ways of doing things faster, cheaper, uh more creative, more efficient, more productive. Uh and so the adoption even though the unit growth dynamics aren't there, the mindset develops. And so we usually come out of those periods flying.
These new technologies do. So uh a a recession, a bad recession would slow progress down, but it would not stop it. In another way, it would help evolve a coiled spring so that the end of the recession would be a massive takeoff in these new technologies. Central to Woods framework is Wright's law, the principle that costs decline predictably with cumulative production.
The more units produced, the faster costs fall. This dynamic applies to robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain, and genomic sequencing. Technological progress is not linear. It compounds. We are in print on Tesla. It's it's in the low $400 range per share right now. And we are in print. Our 2029 forecast is 2600.
That forecast has nothing for Optimus. Uh so humanoid robots and we're beginning to understand that while we were too aggressive on autonomous mobility, so robo taxis, um we may be too conservative on uh the humanoid robot opportunity. Uh so stay tuned for that update. um uh the slow slow and then all at once is very typical of uh technologies that really are hard to crack.
Uh I think Elon Musk genuinely thought that by the late teens uh 201819 he would be in there with robo taxis. We had just experienced a massive breakthrough in AI transformer architecture in uh 2017. Uh it has taken time for Tesla, Elon and team uh to perfect uh the autonomous opportunity with the latest AI um breakthroughs.
Uh now we're there. Now we're there. And so we don't think technology is the problem anymore. Um, we are seeing autonomous vehicles on the road. Uh, I can drive around in St. Petersburg with my current Tesla uh, full self-driving uh, and not touch the wheel or the accelerator or the brake and I can park.
So, the technology is here. Uh, regulations have to catch up. In the United States, we have 50 regulators. Well, more than that in transportation, but 50 state regulators. We think that this government is going to elevate the regulatory regime to the federal status. Uh and that is because autonomous vehicles of course cross from state to state.
So it should be uh national transportation uh regulation. uh if we do get that we believe that uh Tesla will be in uh more than uh certainly more than 25% but probably up to 50% of all the cities in the United States, the major cities and beyond because of course Tesla's data is worldwide. The roughly 7 to 8 million robots that we all drive have been collecting data for years.
I got my first Tesla Model 3 in 2018 and it has been collecting data every day and sending it back to Tesla. So Tesla knows the world's roads from a data point of view we think better than any other auto manufacturer or technology uh company out there. we began to get uh the the sense that Elon is looking at the convergence among his companies very seriously.
Convergence is a word we've been using in our big ideas uh for well we started in 2017 but the idea of convergence uh that word really surfaced within the last 5 years and uh Elon on X said you know I think my companies are more uh convergence candidates than I even appreciated that's when we knew uh that he was thinking carefully uh about all of the data the sources he has that nobody else has.
And uh AI if anything is a proprietary data project. Those with the proprietary data and the most of it and the most differentiated are probably going to win. Uh so that's very big picture in terms of uh SpaceX and XAI. uh when Elon started talking about orbital data centers, data centers in space, uh that's when we got the sense that um this was a real possibility, this convergence.
Uh it happened more quickly than we expected. And yes, of course, it begs the question, will Tesla be next? We think that Elon would like to reward the very patient shareholders who have been holding Tesla for the last uh several years uh with the profitability associated with robo taxis and so we we if Tesla is a part of this convergent strategy and it could be uh we don't think it will happen for a number of years I think he'll want to integrate the the space opportunity first uh But the frustration of building data centers on earth uh finally took uh Elon Musk back to first principles.
Could we do this in space? Uh you know there are no regulations in space. We could do this very quickly, much more quickly. Uh and while we don't think uh he will have as many gigawatts uh uh of computing power up in space as he thinks by the end of the decade, we think he'll be well on his way by the end of the decade to uh mean me meaningful uh computing power.
I would have to say that um the opportunities are are more in embodied AI meaning bringing the physical and the digital together. Uh and so autonomous mobility we think will be the biggest revenue generator. It'll scale the most quickly uh to the $10 trillion uh mark uh which is quite meaningful in a world where global GDP is about 130 trillion.
We think that will happen within the next 10 to uh uh 5 to 10 years and um you know this movement has happened slowly slowly and now it's happening all at once. Elon Musk was talking about autonomous mobility in his master plan uh 10 uh 12 years ago and uh here we are uh finally he launched this year.
So slowly slowly and now he's saying by the end of this year depending on the regulatory environment uh Tesla will be autonomous in 25 to 50% of uh all of the US major cities. So that's one and then the other one is in health care. While uh we may see the scaling of revenues uh the most quickly in uh autonomous transportation of all kinds uh we think the most profound applications of AI are going to be in healthcare and uh from a regulatory point of view here in the United States at least we're just strangling uh the health care sector and uh with with too much focus on safety uh and not enough on efficacy.
Kathy Wood's thesis is not about quarterly earnings or cyclical rotation. It is about exponential systems converging. Bitcoin as a global digital monetary framework. Stable coins as transitional monetary instruments. Autonomous mobility scaling into trillion dollar markets. AI compressing healthcare costs.
Orbital data centers redefining computation. Humanoid robotics merging digital intelligence with physical labor.
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