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. As you can see, the Nasdaq rose 2.25% last Friday. This was a significantly large gain, and the correction itself ended quite briefly. That is why I have repeatedly mentioned that in a bullish trend like this, it is very difficult to time your entry and stop-loss if you invest in inverse ETFs. So, if you have entered into inverse ETFs now, you will have no choice but to cut your losses again when the price starts to rise by forming a support zone above starting today.
The MACD is currently showing signs of attempting to break through the signal line, and the Slow Stochastic also has enough room to rise above its ambiguous direction. Therefore, from this perspective, I advised that it is more appropriate to focus on bullish ETFs rather than this type of investment right now.
So, in the case of the Nasdaq, a somewhat long bullish candle formed above the 40-day moving average. So, if asked whether it will fall starting today, I believe there is still room for it to turn upward. Right now, many People are talking about a crisis in sectors like banking, but the market doesn't always collapse just because talk of a crisis arises.
The market typically collapses all at once just when everyone feels things are relatively stable. On the contrary, you must remember that we have repeatedly observed a pattern where stocks rise when the general public recognizes a crisis and is frightened, and then plummet just as those scared people think, "It's rising so much, maybe I should get in." Therefore, periods when many people declare a crisis are unlikely to turn into massive collapses.
In fact, the current situation appears to be a phase where an upward trend is emerging by exploiting these sentiments in reverse. The reason I say this is that, regarding the recent correction, we expected it to hit a downward slump before coming back up. However, look at what is happening now; it continues to show a short-term upward trend in the opposite direction.
Consequently, short sellers and similar forces are continuously getting caught up in these movements. This is also referred to as a whipsaw. Therefore, in this situation, rather than blindly following a specific position, we should respond by buying stocks that are available at low prices. I believe this is a market where things can be done if you just try.
The S&P 500 is currently moving into a decent position. Looking at the long-term trend, it appears to be entering the initial phase of a positive turn. As for SOXL, it is turning positive in the lower half of the range; specifically, the MACD has broken through the signal line, and the slow socket stick is showing an upward trend.
Therefore, the fact that it is moving in this manner basically means that the market energy is quite strong. It appears that the semiconductor sector could also create an upward trend starting from here. TQ, FNGU, and SOXL all saw gains of over 6% last Friday. If this area finds support today, the market could flow in a direction where, as I mentioned previously, the lower resistance line is set a bit higher, leading to a rebound.
So, if you look at FIX, it is in a significantly downward position. And V6 is also existing at a fairly low level. Although volatility has risen to some extent, if you look at V6, the volatility itself is quite... It appears that while prices have risen, the overall market anxiety has actually decreased.
In other words, the market is currently in a highly volatile phase. Although there is usually strong anxiety that prices should fall, we are seeing many movements in the opposite direction, such as prices rising instead. Therefore, while market volatility is high, the underlying market anxiety—like that associated with put options—has actually decreased.
It would be best to view the market situation this way. Consequently, strong gains have occurred, primarily driven by major large-cap stocks. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla have all shown significant increases. In the case of Tesla, although it is somewhat in the lower half of the trend, a rebound could emerge from here.
It is also showing the initial signs of a movement that could rebound to the previous resistance level of around $200, so I believe this is a zone worth paying attention to. Conversely, Facebook, which had been rising recently, is now showing signs of moving downwards, suggesting it could fill the gap and move forward.
Therefore, rather than buying Facebook immediately just because it is cheap, if you make additional purchases when it approaches the gap level, you could aim for a rebound. So, regarding the current market... Another important point we need to consider is that, until now, large-cap stocks have led the rise of the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
If these massive stocks—the ones I showed you earlier with market caps in the hundreds of trillions—have shaken the indices by rising by percentages, perhaps as much as 45%, then once these corrections are complete, there is a possibility that small and medium-sized stocks—specifically the Russell 2000—which have not risen until now will start to move.
In other words, looking at the flow of money circulation, the leading stocks move first, followed by related small and medium-sized companies, right? Companies that receive subcontracting work, or penny stocks, generate significant gains. It appears we are currently following a trend at that level. Therefore, you should keep in mind that small and medium-sized stocks may start to rise from this point on.
So, rather than simply looking at stocks with excessively large market caps, there is a possibility that small stocks—those with market caps in the trillions or even less—will receive some price appreciation. Therefore, if there are stocks generating good earnings, you should pay attention to them in certain price ranges.
Even if you hold onto your current position, it looks like there could be movements that make it worth buying. For example, during this recent rally, the Russell 2000 showed a larger rebound than the NASDAQ, S &P 500, or SOXX. Therefore, if an upward reversal occurs at this point, I would say that movements could emerge where the market takes over the trend led by large-cap stocks in the NASDAQ or S&P 500.
Domestic stocks are also currently moving toward an upward reversal. Since the FOMC has ended and the market is trending toward a recovery phase moving upward for the time being, I would say that if there are promising stocks, they are currently in a position where you can pay close attention and invest.
However, stocks like Apple and Microsoft are heading towards their previous highs, right? Because of this, if these large-cap stocks hit a certain upper ledge, that strategy could come to an end. So, if everyone rushes in now because they think it is good, as I mentioned in today's title and earlier, the opposite will happen when other sectors start to rise; this could affect the market.
It is about the flow. So, when the time comes for many people to jump in, the rally for these stocks may end. Then, the stock market is such that other stocks will take the lead. Therefore, no matter how good the current trend is, please do not forget that we are at a significantly high level. There are people who assume too large a position or insist on long-term investing even at high prices.
So, rather than advocating for long-term investment, I think it would be safer to adopt a strategy of holding the bat tight for now and realizing profits when the price reaches a certain level. Okay, I will end today's video here. Thank you.
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