저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥·S&P500 상승 이후 시장은 과거 통계상 취약하고 거시경기 후퇴 초입이라 현재 위치가 높아 보인다는 주장. SOXX 슬로우 스토캐스틱 D 20 부근, MACD 약 두 달 조정으로 반도체 지수는 하락 추세를 상당 부분 마쳤다고 진단. 대형주(엔비디아, 애플, MS, 테슬라)는 2021년 고점에 근접. 매수는 분할·저점 위주, 매도는 신속하게 하라고 권고. SOXL은 손절선을 가깝게 잡을 수 있어 TQQQ보다 안전하다는 주장.
다듬은 글
This concludes the . Yesterday, the Nasdaq rose by about 0.7%, the S&P 500 by 0.83%, and the SO XX saw a significant surge of nearly 2%. Therefore, regarding the overall market trend, I think we need to examine the timing for buying. Personally, I would like to discuss a principled approach. I recommended buying at the bottom level.
This is because the market is not in a particularly safe state; in a sense, there is always a possibility that this level could be breached if a correction occurs. Traditionally, the US market has not performed well, and given the statistical significance of this, I wonder if the current position is too high to buy at.
Therefore, we must respond by ensuring that if we buy a large amount just because the price has risen for two days, and a correction occurs—specifically if it breaks through this level—we will inevitably be forced to cut our losses again. You are taking that kind of position through buying. So today, I want to emphasize that we need to seize the buying timing from the most favorable position.
So, this position itself isn't bad right now, is it? Considering it is an uptrend, you could buy at any time. However, you need to keep in mind that even within an uptrend, you must buy at the bottom to lower the average purchase price at which a stop-loss is triggered. If you are the type of person who never cuts losses, you can simply hold on as is.
But if you need to cut losses and are highly sensitive to losses, I think this is the time to make an effort to lower your average purchase price as much as possible and practice mind control. So, while a trend has emerged that reverses this direction slightly, we cannot guarantee what will happen starting next week.
In other words, regarding whether it will go up or down—while I mentioned in the last video that there was a high probability of it going up—what I am saying now is that the buying timing itself could be at a high level. In other words, for those playing the overall index or investing mainly in tech stocks, would n't it be better to wait for an opportunity to buy at a lower average purchase price?
So, how... Are you saying I should do that? Conversely, something like SOXX is an example I can show you. Now, in the case of the semiconductor sector, look at how the index itself has fared. It has largely completed its downward trend progression. Right? As you can see, the Slow Stochastic D-value has dropped to 20, and the MACD has undergone a correction for nearly two months—almost a month.
So, the gap is now narrowing sufficiently. Even looking at the Slow Stochastic, there might be some adjustments here, but I mentioned that it has definitely reached the bottom. That is why, as I have been saying all along, yesterday saw a surge of nearly 2% compared to other indices due to this safety sentiment.
Therefore, we must always pay attention to these aspects— that is, focus on where the trend is positioned—and determine our buying timing accordingly. The current market is only safe if you do that. If you fail to do so, and the gap that triggers a stop-loss widens significantly, you will inevitably continue to accumulate losses.
Right? Even if we just use the standard as a guideline, it is almost at 800. Since the drop is close to 1,000%, this decline cannot be considered light. So, if we assume the current position is a bit high and decide to buy, what would the strategy be if we followed the method I have been discussing with you so far?
It would involve only partial buying, right? For instance, if I predict it will surge further, I would invest only about 20% of my total assets through staggered buying to prepare for a potential rise, while maintaining my overall proportion. Even if the market corrects and hits a bottom before coming back up, I can devise a new strategy because I have plenty of cash.
However, if you take an extreme view and invest a large portion at a significantly risky position, you are practically bound to get stuck. We want to get rich quickly and try to pour in a lot of money fast, but while buying can proceed slowly, selling requires the attitude of realizing profits quickly and without hesitation.
In other words, I believe that buying cautiously and selling boldly is the fundamental attitude that investors should have. That is why I always continue to emphasize safe investing. I have explained it. Now, although the bullish trend I mentioned has been reached, buying at the bottom of the wave within that bullish trend is currently considered safe.
If you have studied macroeconomics to some extent, and if a situation were to arise where liquidity is supplied, interest rates are low, and the unemployment rate—which had bottomed out—is recovering, I would advise you to buy now. However, as you have likely studied over time, looking at macroeconomic trends, the current situation is not that safe.
Of course, there may be pre-recovery patterns, but this is the timing for a full-scale rise—or rather, a recession is approaching. The recession has not fully arrived yet, and we are at the very beginning of a trend where U.S. earnings are deteriorating. Therefore, taking these factors into account, this is a time when you must make the safest possible investments, even when investing in a bullish trend.
You must keep in mind that this is not a market where the market goes up just by putting money in, as it did in the past. The reason I always speak very cautiously, neither here nor there, is because such macroeconomic conditions are underlying it. So, those who ignore this and invest boldly... If you are making money, you can simply continue investing.
However, I am emphasizing that if most of you are currently seeing losses, investing safely is extremely important. For example, in the case of TQ or SOXL, while TQ might appear to have a stronger trend, SOXL is actually in a safer situation in terms of trend flow. Why? Because if we enter here, we can set our stop-loss line close.
In other words, since this level itself serves as the stop-loss cut, we can respond by executing a stop-loss if this level breaks. Therefore, we must invest while keeping these factors in mind. So, overthinking is always the problem. Now, let's say you entered SOXL here, but the stop- loss level—what if it breaks below $12 or $13— what should you do?
You need to consider selling. Therefore, you must establish your own principles before entering. You must start investing after determining how high you are willing to hold the price; only then can you prepare for risks. Why am I telling you this? Look at the weekly chart. Time series analysis is extremely important.
While it may look like a significant buying opportunity on a daily basis, looking at the weekly chart, it is actually a zone where the decline is just beginning. So, how should we approach this? There is only one way: we have no choice but to approach it safely. If this trend proceeds as a major trend, we have no way of knowing how high it will go.
Therefore, we must always keep these factors in mind; there is no such thing as unconditional holding or unconditional buying. So, keeping these points in mind, you must always determine where to cut your losses. Consequently, I believe now is the time for a market strategy that targets the safest positions where you can set short stop-losses.
Now, if we look at the trends of large-cap stocks, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla have all shown upward trends to some extent. However, we need to observe this objectively because the current position is absolutely not better. In fact, there is not much difference compared to the last high of 2021, prior to COVID-19.
Looking at the average purchase price, it is about 10% from $10. This means that large-cap stocks have already approached within 10% of the highs reached during the major post-COVID rally, driven by significant investor anxiety. So, regarding this aspect as well... Although stocks like Facebook have seen strong rallies, they are currently in a very unstable position.
In fact, the reason Facebook was able to generate stronger energy is that the drop from its peak was quite significant; consequently, there may be a perception that it is safe even if it rises this much. Also, since the zone where the crash occurred is currently waiting ahead, if it can absorb buying pressure in this area, it implies that this was the point where selling pressure was strongest at the time.
Right? Therefore, as we are approaching this zone, if you observe how it breaks through this area, Facebook also has the potential to rise by within about 10% from its previous high. Since it appears that a safe-cycle trading pattern is currently emerging, it would be good to respond by observing these factors.
Now, Amazon is a case where recovery has been quite slow. The problem with Amazon is that its earnings are not coming through well. In a way, it is displaying a very heavy earnings profile, much like a value stock, and the rate of return itself is not particularly high. Therefore, if these aspects do not improve, it could become one of the slowest-moving stocks.
However, if signs of earnings improvement begin to appear... I would like you to keep in mind that a similar trend approaching the previous high line could emerge again. So, I have discussed the overall market and talked about buying timing. I took some time to briefly explain why we need to time our purchases safely. For now, I will end today's video here.
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