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well i think it bothers me that people are very dangerous when they invest this word play the market that's a dangerous term but if you do some work do some research know what you own look at the research look at the balance sheet you if you get at eight and eight yet fairly close to 16 you find out this company has lots of debt no cash they're in trouble you should know it so a little bit of research people are careful they buy a refrigerator can they take a vacation and they they'll put five ten thousand dollars some stock to hear on the bus or the party that's dangerous so when you say buy what you know you also thought that the regular investor might be able to get an inside advantage by sticking to an industry he's a familiar with or seeing something that she realizes is a great product imagine if you were in a mall the last 50 years you would've seen gap when it was hot you were saying aluminum was hot we've seen what was not had you seen when they were starting people weren't excited about gaap anymore or then you do some research said well gee there's a lot of limited stores but we're only 20.
you know they go to 400. so you see a company i did really well dunkin donuts a local company i do well in stop and shop but people can see that these are really people showing up or guess the sunglasses hype no one's there anymore so that's research that's fundamentals so you don't leave the mall though and by that day we have to do some more work that's the important point so today uh there's so much information everywhere information overload does that make it harder for active investors the indexers say everyone's got access to the same information at the same time you can't beat the market well the way you beat the index is you you avoid the stocks to go down you avoid the steel companies and the oil companies and sears and penny and where the companies are deteriorated i mean companies are dynamic the behind every stock there's a company these are not lottery tickets so you're trying to find the companies within the s p 500 that are doing better they're going from crappy to semi-crabby to good that might take a couple years or they're going to grow for a long time you're trying to avoid the companies that are going south that's how you beat them or you find some companies outside the sp500 that are that are great companies carmax was not in the sv-500 that went up 200-fold so a lot of times they enter and a lot of their great performances before they go in now a lot of people when they're lucky enough or smart enough to get a company that's going up they then they take their profits and you made the case in a book that you should actually hang in there with the really great stocks and you even got a call from warren buffett as a result in 1989 i went home in the phone rings and that was one of my friends but one of my daughters your six-year-old and he picked up and said she just there's a mr buffett online i said this could be a joke i pick it up and this this one buffer from omaha nebraska you know i read your book my reports doing two weeks i use a line he said that all about seven seconds and i said that's great i'd love to do it what you know what's the line he said i love this it's been waiting to do this when you sell your great companies and add to the losers it's like water in the weeds and cutting the flowers he said i want to put it in he said if you ever come to nebraska don't call me you will be mud all over nebraska so did he call him oh yeah several times we play bridge together we've had several meetings great guy another point you've made and this is i think particularly relevant 10 years into a bull market is that i think you said more money has been lost anticipating a downturn than actually in the downturn can you explain well obviously the market's market's gone up tenfold since i stopped running magellan so you make more money on the upside the market's been a lot higher in 10 years from now 20 years from now 30 years from now trying to predict the market is really a waste i don't know what's gonna do it can go down when i ran with john 13 years declined 10 or more nine times the market wow i had a perfect record i went down more than 10 every time whatever market went down and went down more but over the long term the upside is more than the downside so you got to say something do i need the money in the next month do i need money next year do i have kids going to college they have a wedding coming up then you're a bad investor if you if you can keep putting money in your 5 10 15 20 25 year you should do well one thing we're thinking a lot about at barons is the secular changes we're seeing in the market where there's so much disruption that we wonder if certain industries they may be cheap and they may just keep on getting cheaper i mean retail would be an obvious one in some cases victims of amazon but even the auto industry very low price earnings multiples maybe the market sees something do you think secular changes is moving more rapidly now than it did in the 80s when you were running money no i saw the textile industry deteriorate i was recommend all the stocks on the way down i saw the shoe industry go away industries are the industries can go from terrific to terrible there's a great expression the intestinal industry that helped me a lot textile industry yeah it's always darkest before pitch black just anything things are terrible they get terrible squared i mean so just because the industry's getting bad that's not a reason invest wait for things to get better because again somebody might be involved in still it might be involved in coal they might involve in iron ore they might involved in plastics they'll see it aluminum pick up before i do so you might that's a cyclical turnaround that might last two or three years you might see it way before wall street season one broad area that you've recently said might be interesting is energy and it's very unloved on wall street right now uh what do you see in there well the difference between a glut right now and a shortage is like 1 million barrels a day you know the world consumes 100 million a day one million each way so if the economy stays okay and these shale wells you do a thousand barrels a day the first month a year later that 300 wow and then they're 150 big drop off it's a real treadmill and right now there's no private equity money there's no ipos there's no bond market the banks want out private equity wants out shale's going to slow down so these people think the chair is going to keep growing 2-3 million barrels a day we've gone from 5 million barrels in the u.s producing to 12 and a half people think that's going to continue i don't believe it will
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