Here's the most important thing Jamie Dimon said to shareholders, according to one top trader

요약 보기

JP모건 실적 발표 후 은행주 흐름과 제이미 다이먼 발언을 분석한 영상. 결론: 은행주는 실적 대비 주가가 부진하며, 금리 상승 환경 속에서도 강세 전환 여부는 불확실하다는 진단. 제이미 다이먼 발언: 금리 상승은 경제 건강성의 신호이며 자산가격 정상화 과정이라고 평가. 금리 인상 가능성을 대비해야 한다고 언급. 무역·지정학적 불확실성도 언급. 경영진 변화: 다이먼이 콜에서 한발 물러나고 메리앤 로크가 주도한 점을 후계 구도 신호로 해석하는 의견 제시. 은행주 전망: 실적 발표 후 보통 1주일 내 반등하는 패턴이 있었으나 이번엔 주가가 하락. 10년물 금리 하락이 은행주 상승 명분을 약화시킨다는 지적. XLF는 2017년 가을 고점 이후 부진하며 골드만삭스·모건스탠리도 약세. 밸류에이션: JP모건 주가순자산비율(PBR) 약 1.7배 수준으로 장부가 대비 비싸지 않다는 견해. 장기 투자자 관점에서 밸류에이션·재무구조·경영진에 만족한다는 입장으로, 최근 1년 약 20% 상승 후에도 보유 의지를 밝힘. 리스크: 금리·무역 불확실성, 은행주 매수세 부재, 수익률 곡선 변화에 따른 주가 탄력 저하.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. mixed bag for the big banks JP Morgan down 2% while Wells Fargo and City were slightly higher and investors clinging to every word now the CEOs had to say on their conference call so it's time for a new segment called word on the street Cole where the traders tell you the most important thing they heard from the CEO that you bite him into the game you should say that tiger joke girl was a weak farting down I think he's long way all right so you wanted to point out what Jamie Dimon said about higher rates in the economy let's take a listen first I was also point out that I'm just about probability that rates can go high or people should be prepared to that they should not be surprised about it so I'm always surprised when people are surprised and and the why is more important are you still growing the economy strong rates are going up Mojo's considered a healthy normalization and going back to a more of a free market when it comes to asset pricing and and interest rates etcetera and we need that so it to me overall is a good thing all right yeah yeah big takeaway was what well so a couple of things I mean there was nothing to hate in this earnings call the bar was low I thought they jumped over the bar perfectly well enough and yet the stock traded out which is disappointing but the thing that was actually interesting to me was that Jamie Dimon really stepped back a lot on the call normally he's very very involved in the calls so you know he knows the businesses so well he can't help but jump in and make comments when when people ask questions he did why do I do a separate media call that we could not hear but on this call really was Mary Ann Lake she was really running the show this is interesting to me because this is setting up for this succession plan I thought he will be starting to set the table I think she well she's been a great singer time to wrong time what anytime time to run that's a separate call but I think she did a fantastic job as she always does I think that's what's happening here he is setting up Mary Ann like to become his successor I think that she's incredibly qualified but I also think this is just my own opinion that he would like to have a woman in that role so to me that was a very interesting take from this call but he is stepping back more and more from these calls and she's really handling them and she does a good point I mean look also what he did say on the call is he talked about uncertainties from economic and geopolitical I mean he is thinking about the impact of tariffs these trade situation that we are in I think Jamie Dimon has much credibility in terms of painting a proper balanced picture of what's going on and and certainly also said that the economy is in very good shape that's why rates are going higher so let's be clear the trade in the banks to me is it usually takes about a week in the in a normalized environment that we've had for the last five quarters banks have actually rallied substantially about a week after as we've gotten into the quarterly earnings report they lead off there's some skepticism banks have had record profits including JPMorgan they're giving capital back the balance sheets look great even if we're in a credit storm they ever been better prepared and we're not in a credits norm yeah anyway mr.

02. curve and when the ten-year guy is that I don't even know what to finish today 3 16 17 something like that it's been going down since it hit 326 or whatever the top was that doesn't help right it makes it harder to make the case to own these locking stock stuff so the XLF topped out in the fall of 2017 market until last week or so it's only going straight up and the banks can't get out of their own way I mean we could talk about the environment you know steepening yield curve narrowing yield curve doesn't seem to really matter the stocks don't want to go higher so at what point do they start to go higher this is not I mean I don't want to make the same comparison but what it was pretty much the same thing they've been a lot worse but they've been in the best environment ever they can't go higher either so what point do the banks start to go up I've been at Goldman Sachs bowl but I got to tell you something stock trades awful Morgan Stanley made a 52-week low this week as well so JP Morgan best and breed is at what point though does that expense you own JP Morgan mean now would you you would know gee I think that's the trees why do you like because I think JP Morgan right now trades what about 1.7 times price-to-book not tangible book it's the price the book is expensive but not only to be not if he comes forward but if that's the chosen we had great day today where were the buyers they trade there where were the buyers today that's the bottom line they were trading free hey Dom what did you want like where the weights look where the buyers being did you word the buyer Bank every time these guys report that's the problem well a to me it comes down to as an investor especially if I've got a longer term horizon I feel very comfortable with that about that valuation I feel very comfortable with that balance sheet I feel very comfortable with that management team and frankly you know I don't need it I'd love to see it I've been up 20 percent in the last year but I'm not looking to sell a stock because it's it's underperforming a market that's been moving a lot higher anything else you're comfortable with why I read it you know this shirts comfortable yeah thank you for asking okay you're what about I feel with myself you