저자: PaulKlaszus · 외국인
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TQQQ 15분봉에 본인 전략(추세선·스트렝스 지표 기반 진입)을 백테스트했으나 연속 손실로 전략이 이 종목에 맞지 않는다고 결론. 일봉에서는 2019년 10월 하락 추세 등 진입 신호가 더 일관적이었다고 설명하며 일봉 매매를 권함. 과거 차트 분석이며 향후 가격 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
all right i got a request for a back test on this particular instrument um i've never traded it but i like to be as helpful as i can to as many people as i can so i'm going to just give my analysis on it and maybe a couple suggestions number one the request was for a 15 minute time frame and when it comes to stocks i don't particularly care for the 15 minute because there just aren't enough candles in a day to determine exactly what's going to happen i like to i like to either scalp it i if i were to trade i would probably either scalp it or i would trade the daily chart and i have here the daily chart and as you can see if you follow my entries on the daily chart you're going to have a lot more success a lot more consistency with the trades and you know whether or not it's a winning or a losing trade um even the continuations are beautiful as well as you can see here like they're just they're nice it's nice you can continue them for a long time um and then wait for the next way back again so 11 yeah even this year that is almost a successful trade you might you might not trade against the trend there wait for confirmation which is here that we are back on the uptrend yeah see and that's another successful trade so i would trade the daily honestly but um the request was for the 15 minutes so we're going to go to that and see what we can do so we can discover here on the 15 minute chart um some people like to do the 15 minutes i get i guess because you know they got full-time jobs whatever else is just a better time frame for them to check out again i figure if you have a full-time job i would be trading the daily chart just because of the consistency on the entries um but here we go minute chart on i don't even know what this really is tqqq um i've never even i don't play stocks guys so uh send me requests for some other i don't know another index or some pairs or something like that because uh i don't trade stocks for this very reason um okay so 15 minute we're going to go back and back test some stuff here see these trends or um these trends are significant they uh i don't even even know how to do this guys just being honest i don't even know so we're going to come out of the session and we're going to just jump in there there's our first entry right away session opens within the first 15 minutes we've got a close oh so this is half an hour we've got a close below the line um we have strength in the bull and the bears we still have strength in the bulls and so as a result i'm not going in plus volatility is a little bit low i like to see 25 when i'm on a 15 minute chart um there we have it we're coming back to retest the line it seems possibly that could be an entry actually that could be an entry let's go back because it is in an upward trend there it is strength is there volatility is there everything is there so we're going to go ahead and open a trade on this one take into account your spread and all that good stuff so 0.73 was it 0.73 all right so we're going to add 0.15 to a 1.5 to that so 73 half of 73 would be 36 and a half 36 and a half on top of 73 that would be a hundred nine plus your spread who knows what the spread is um i'm just going to add another i'm just going to add another tick to that it's a 1 1 9 or another pip rather and then on the plus side that is 73 times 2 would be 1 56 sorry no 146 oh but 56 because of the pit there we go all right and we'll see where this takes us we're in profit and then we went right back the other way and whether or not this is an entry or not simple say it is so we're going to go ahead enter another trade in the other direction and it's probable because we had this high here get denied and uh you know this uh this was kind of that test of changing the trend and so we're gonna go ahead because that's uh that's that's that's a good it's a good entry um the fact that it's crossing again below the line is nice we've got the strength in the bears everything checks out so let's just see what the ptr here is 83 now so that would be 41 and a half which would be 120 and a 124.5 plus 134 so 134 there and then 80.
maybe 3 times 2 is 166. plus the extra pip for spread and away we go and we are not out indicators show though that this is a reversal the bulls i don't like that i'm going to close it out early and it's a good thing because we would have stopped out and we have closed below but we have strength in the bulls so that is not sufficient there's a strong signal now at that point this is actually the crossbow above but wait i don't believe i see strength in the bowls you gotta see it uh i right there yeah we don't have strength in the bulls there's a strong signal here but i see this as you know starting to consolidate right because we have a high here low high that's lower and a low that's higher so i'm i'm saying no i've lost two trades in a row as a result of this so this consolidation tells me i'm not i'm not trading i'm out for the time being until i close outside of that range which is right there so no still not did not close outside all right now we're headed downwards we didn't close outside this consolidation range yet so i'm not entering have to close out and now we're after hours so we have to wait until we see something okay now we're closed out below um so we can look for the next opportunity we jumped up here's the next opportunity um this is still isn't in session there we go remove the rules here we go you guys will know whether or not this is actually going to work for you or not because uh again i don't trade stocks i'm just i'm just charting with the rules that i have been teaching and that have worked for me elsewhere can you determine whether or not this is actually going to work for you again i'm not feeling it so here we go this is 64.
b92 92 plus the pip spread and 64 times 2 128 138 and now we're going downwards we have strength in the bulls now or sorry bears and oscillators starting to pinch off this is also a new oscillator that shows uh this is a downward trend or not the oscillator the eq rather so yeah you know what that might not even have been a good entry anyways just because of that eq again i've seen it work and i've got i've got instruments where i do it especially when it's a brand new one like this brand new trend with the eq might not have taken that trade you might have waited for confirmation right like a retest of the smooth moving average um i don't even know whether or not to close that trade out the volatility is there so yeah we wouldn't be closing this because we've got too much motion downward yeah so that's where i'd be closing and we are waiting for the next opportunity this could be a continuation um right here nope because we don't have strength from the bears yet now we do we've crossed below we've got strength from the bears oscillators showing good signs so we're going to go ahead and open a trade but it's in this case here i always only trade half the risk just because just because so 54 plus 27 would be 81 81 plus the pip spread is 91.
54 times 2 is 108 plus the spread is 118. and let's see where this trade takes us and we got stopped out again guys i'm not liking this too much my trading strategy doesn't work it doesn't work with this instrument and here's a test above but then we cross back below again not showing strength from the bears let's go back oh you guys and your stocks are so funny i'm not making fun of you i'm just making fun of my trading strategy in your guys's world uh okay so this is technically an entry right because um is it though really is it i don't like it it could be the oscillator flipped right you've got strength no strength in the in the bears right now let's give it a shot no i'm not and the reason why i'm not is because i'm not even above the most previous high we formed a new low i'm not above the previous high so i'm just going to say no you know i might be making a mistake here now we're going below again but there's no strength in the bears we need to see strengthen the bears to actually make a move here now we're above so yeah that would have been a good trade to take on the way up but i didn't feel like it just being real guys all right now we're coming downwards and we do see strength where we need it so this is an entry uh 81.
81 times 1.5 would be 121 plus the spread 81 162 plus the spread and we're already going up against it guys it's another losing trade i'm just going to stop right now like i'm not going to go on my trading strategy does not work with this at all like who in their right mind would take five trades in a row losing and then say uh yeah let's keep trying no this this requires a re-analysis of my trading strategy um and whether or not to even use anything from my trading strategy on this instrument however i am going to go to the daily chart and i'm going to show you something we're going to go back to october 19 at the year 2019.
that's not a crossing above but this one is so this is the first candle that we have above the line and obviously that's a win here's the next candle that we have crossing below all of the strength indicators are showing yeah we're bearish and i mean like this first trade look at how many days this went on great you know you could have closed here and uh you know re-entered because we crossed above this new moving average again um you know so about let's say for instance you stopped this trend here because you might not get the whole thing but you know for a 105 days you get yourself um 39 39 62 increase in the stock during that and if you got some good leverage on that that's a nice that's a nice trade especially for stocks okay then we have this crossing below you know it's a atr is 4.96 so we just make sure that we would clear yeah so that would be a good trade that would take us down here trailing stop would take us out likely yeah um but i mean you could stay in it because we didn't cross of the smooth moving average depending on what your exit strategy is but i mean you know you can even re-enter right when you see a bearish cam when you see a bearish candle reform you could re-enter right and i mean let's say you catch 50 of this that's uh another thirty five percent in the stock price um here's a crossing above the line six point five eight and so that would actually be okay this stop here not interesting that one you might have you might have gotten out just because an early early exit but then you got your next one right or the other option is that you wait because we're crossing against the clouds trend um and then coming back up again crossing below closing below and then crossing above again that's kind of like your confirmation so you could enter there or you could wait until you actually get some strength in the bulls right at the end of that candle in here there's no volatility but it's different on the daily chart you can make some allowances there and away you go there's 47 over how many days 36 days and then you got a re-entry here uh nope i wouldn't re-enter there i re-entered here probably that's not bad but this is a cleaner entry here yeah so i'm i'm suggesting that instead of trading the 15-minute chart because i got murdered uh that i would trade like a daily instead so if you have any questions let me know if you have other requests let me know the next one i'm going to do is actually going to be so get requests for that and if you have requests yeah let me know and comment get your feedback and let me know how whether or not you think that i really butchered this video or not clearly the 15 minute chart on my strategy is not effective uh so and i'm okay with that because it's not making enough money elsewhere talk to you guys later
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