Fisher Investments’ Founder, Ken Fisher, Gives an Update on the Bounce Effect in 2023

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결론: 2022년 약세장에서 가장 많이 하락한 성장주·대형주·고품질주가 이후 반등을 주도하는 '바운스 효과'가 2023년에도 거의 완벽히 작동했고, 당분간 계속될 것이다. 핵심 주장: 약세장에서 가장 크게 떨어진 종목군이 다음 강세장 초기에 가장 많이 오르는 경향이 있으며, 이는 과거 데이터상 거의 범주적으로 참이다. 근거: 2022년 10월 초 저점부터 9개월간(미국 중간선거 전 10월 1일~다음해 6월 30일) 측정된 주식시장 역사상 가장 꾸준히 수익을 낸 기간이었고, 그 기간 가장 잘 오른 범주가 약세장에서 가장 많이 빠진 범주였다. 구체 범주: 성장주>가치주, 대형주>소형주, 고품질>저품질 등이며, 2022년 가장 많이 얻어맞은 빅테크 등이 저점 이후 가장 많이 반등했다. 비교: 방어주(필수소비재), 에너지, 유틸리티, 가치주, 소형주는 2022년에 덜 하락했으나 2023년에도 덜 올랐다. 기간 및 전환 조건: 바운스 효과는 보통 강세장 첫 1년 정도 작동하며 가끔 더 길거나 짧다. 세계가 미래 경제성장에 충분한 자신감을 가지게 되고 성장 우려가 줄면 다른 범주로 대체되며, 그 신호는 경제가 견조하게 성장한다는 인식이 확산되는 시점이다. 리스크/조건: 지속 기간은 정확히 알 수 없으며, 경제성장 우려가 다시 커지면 효과가 약해질 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 바운스 효과가 '조금 더 오래' 갈 것이며, 당분간 2023년과 같은 패턴이 이어질 것이라고 봄.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. so I've written about this quite a bit in the various places that I write in English and in other languages and the simple fact is and this has worked not perfectly but almost perfectly in 2023 and the last part of 2022. categories of stocks not every individual one that fall the most in a bear Market bounce the most early in the next bull market this if you'll pardon the pun is almost categorically true the fact of the matter is that that worked pretty perfectly as you look at what dropped in 2022 in the period from October the beginning of October in 2022 when the midterm Miracle started the nine months to begin October 1st before a U.S midterm election and end subsequent June 30th the most consistently profitable nine months in all of measured stock market history throughout that period And since the categories that have done best not every weekend every month but overall in fact a recorder have been the ones that declined the most in the bear market so this is overly and simply growth doing well value lagging bigger doing better than smaller things that are higher quality doing better than things that are lower quality within both of the categories that I just mentioned these are the categories like let's say big tack that got battered the most in 2022 and from the bottom in October early October bounced the most ever since this which I call the bounce effect has been working really really well it'll continue to work well for a while exactly how long I don't know but it normally works for about the first year of a bull market sometimes a little longer sometimes not and is usually supplanted when the world has enough confidence in future economic growth whereas before it hadn't as the bear Market climaxed that people get to the view that companies that don't have inherent growth attributes and are inherently lower quality will be able to grow with the economy now in different bear markets that act differently different categories of stocks lead the market down and those categories typically lead the market back up this time it's those that I cited so that for example the defensive stocks the consumer staples energy utilities value and smaller stocks overall didn't lag in 2022 but they also didn't rise as much in 2023 so I'm saying to you this effect goes on a little longer it'll transition in the thing to look for to see when it might transition is when the world starts to have more oomph or emphasis on boy the economy is growing nicely now we can now get growth out of these other ones unlike what we believe before when we thought the world was having so many economic growth problems and economic growth fears domestically and overseas and with that that describes to you pretty much perfectly how the markets operated this year and the beginning of last year and will for a while that thing which I call the bounce effec