저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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금은 장기 투자 수단으로 매력이 낮다는 결론이다. 금의 변동성은 대중이 생각하는 것보다 크며, 미국 국채 대비 장기 수익률은 약간 낮은데 표준편차는 두 배 이상이다. 주식(S&P 500) 대비 연간 수익률은 약 절반 수준인데 변동성은 약 20% 더 높다는 점을 강조한다. 1980년 고점 이후 약 28년간 가격이 회복되지 않았고, 2008년 이후 다시 고점을 찍었으나 2020년 고점 회복까지는 약 3년이 더 걸렸다. 인플레이션 헤지 역할은 있으나 매우 변동성이 큰 헤지라고 평가한다. 연도별 수익률 기준으로 금이 플러스인 해는 약 절반에 그친다. 1974년 이후 주식은 약 81%, 1925년 이후 약 65%의 해에서 플러스였다. 금이 크게 오른 뒤에는 장기간 부진이 뒤따르는 경향이 있어 타이밍이 중요하다고 한다. 금 관련주는 소형 가치주와 비슷하게 움직이는 경향이 있으며 시장과 완전히 일치하지는 않는다. 금을 전적으로 배제할 필요는 없으나, 투자 수단으로서는 수익 대비 변동성과 일관성이 떨어져 실망하기 쉽다고 조언한다. 반지나 장식용으로는 금이 좋을 수 있지만 투자 기준으로는 부합하지 않는다는 결론이다.
다듬은 글
gold is something that to do well compared to other things you got to be a really good timer if you're not a really good timer you got to say I want the ring on my finger maybe to be gold and maybe I got some other ornaments that I want to be gold but as an investment it doesn't really match if you will the goal standard of how you measure what should be a good investment so every uh month I do another debunk out of my uh old book debunkery uh which is full of little short chapters debunking some common myth which of course isn't necessarily something that people think of as a myth because in our culture myths go on perceived by so many as reality so so this time I'm going to talk about bunk number 35 in the book with gold you're golden now I have been articulate on talking about gold in a way that most people don't for a really long time and it's really simple if you get it I'm going to delve into this a little bit but this book is old and it's got a lot of historical data it on each of the chapters I'm going to try to use some of this from the book as well as some of more recent data to show you the way to think about this but gold is of course a particular specific commodity it is a commodity with a long history that we can see in free markets and we can compare with other things and the way you would normally do that is to say how volatile is it what kind of returns do you get out of it for that volatility are there other extraordinary things you can say about it and with gold there's a lot you can say first let me make this really simple the most standard way is to take a long history see what the total returns have been and see what the annual standard deviation for the category is compared to other categories standard deviation is a measure of volatility and turns out gold is more volatile than you think it is most people think it's kind of a steady Yeti thing you buy and hold for the long term and of course you can't but it's really volatile So when you buy it and hold it for the long term you better be ready for that volatility in the period since the gold standard was ended the last vestage of the gold standard 1974 which the book covers past the time period in the book to the present gold has had slightly lower long-term returns than just simp US Treasury Bonds in dollars but the standard deviation of it is more than twice as high that is to say it's more than twice as high as the volatility of bonds and you don't find that very shocking because you don't think Bond should be very volatile right the shocking part is it's got almost precisely half the total return per year of Common Stocks the S&P 500 with a volatility that's a little over 20% higher said that differently you don't expect go should be a lot more volatile than stocks with half the return you follow that but it gets worse than that worse than that you get really really long time periods where gold loses money with volatility and people can't handle that very much and let me kind of take you through some of that so after 1974 when the gold standard was broken completely the last vestage is gone gold hit a peak in 1980 now we can measure gold back further long before you ever while you still had the gold standard and what I'm telling you will be true it's just not as perfectly measurable but it hit a peak in 1980 and I kid you not it then went downhill like this for you count them 20 years to a bottom 20 years of irregularly falling prices to a 20year low before it started back up again and it did not get to where it matched the 1980 price for you count them 28 years in 2008 the reality is it then peaked a little after that it then fell again it then hit a peak in 2020 and still has now just getting back to match that 3 years later what I'm wanting you to see is that while the long-term return of gold is positive it's basically an inflation hedge but it's an inflation hedge that's very very volatile and you can almost certainly do better in mirriad other Capital Market structures like bonds or like stocks when you think about individual years going back over history cutting it one other way gold is actually positive going back almost as far as you want to measure it in half of years whereas in that period from 1974 to present the stock market has been positive in 81% of years and if you just go back to the beginning of accurate measurement on with daily pricing an annual pricing precisely in history of the US Stock Market to 1925 it's positive a little over 65% of years so what do you want the one with the higher returns or the lower Returns the higher would be stocks or bonds what do you want the higher volatility or the lower volatility you want the lower volatility relative to the returns that would be uh bonds or stocks and what do you want the ones that are positive more of the time or less of the time you'd like the ones that are positive more of the time not less of the time which would that be that would be bonds and uh stocks so what I'm saying to you is this and I'm not saying to you you shouldn't have anything to do with gold I'm saying gold is something that to do well compared to other things you got to be a really good timer if you're not a really good timer you got to say I want the ring on my finger maybe to be gold and maybe I got some ornaments that I want to be gold but as an investment it doesn't really match if you will the goal standard of how you measure what should be a good investment which is returns relative to volatility relative to consistency and for that you have to look elsewhere now there's more that you can do that's not in capital markets and investing as well but then someone will say but I'm not buying gold I'm buying gold stocks and that's different different and it is different and gold stocks May pay a dividend and there's nothing wrong with that but the fact of the matter is gold stocks typically not always but typically fall into a subcategory of the stock market that moves when smaller value stocks move not always but usually and that's fairly volatile and not totally consistent with the overall Market but what I really want you to see is if you're thinking this is an inflation hedge remember it's a very volatile inflation hedge that more of the years than not in history in aggregate I I I started to misspeak myself that has very very long periods of losing money and then has short spurts that are steep when it makes money like the run up in a few years to 1980 the run up in a few years to the uh Peak around 2012 the run up in a few years to the peak around 2020 if you can't time those you're very likely to get disenchanted with gold over the longer periods first that it falls before it runs if you're buying gold you really don't want to be buying it after it's had a big run run up cuz usually after a big runup you're in for a long period where you don't get that again you follow if you're not a really good timer if you can't time stocks which are positive most of the time if you can't time bonds which are positive even more of the time than that if you can't time things that are easier to time goal's really tricky so my advice is ask yourself how good are you at that and how much are you prepared to get a low return with high volatility and a low consistency of return over years and suffer long periods where they decline without getting discouraged so you can hold on waiting for the other side if that's you hey have fun but for most people that's not the case and you'll find gold is more frustrating than rewarding thank you very much for listening to me I very much hope you enjoyed this video as part of my series on debunking Common Market myths to watch more videos like this click the link on the screen and make sure to subscribe to Fisher Investments YouTube channel thanks so much for listening to me
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