저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 노동 부족과 원자재 가격 상승이 장기화되어 인플레이션과 공급 차질 위험이 실제로 크며, 이를 헤지할 필요가 있다는 견해. 노동 시장: 미국에서 노동력 부족이 구조적으로 지속되고 있으며, 호텔·여행 업종의 비관리직 시간당 임금이 약 20달러대에서 33달러 수준으로 올랐다고 언급. 공급망: 항만 24시간 운영을 위해 바이든 정부가 직접 나서야 할 정도로 물류 병목이 심각하며, 글로벌 공급망 정상화에 최소 1년 이상 걸릴 것으로 봄. 인플레이션 전망: 재고 부족 → 가격 상승 → 임금 인상 → 추가 가격 상승의 악순환 가능성 제기. 기존의 '인플레이션은 없다'는 입장에서 바꿔 헤지 포지션을 잡고 있다고 밝힘. 금리: 유럽(ECB)과 미국 연준을 제외한 주요국 중앙은행들은 이미 금리를 인상했으며, 미국은 수입 인플레이션 영향을 받을 것이라고 봄. 자동화 시나리오: 인건비 상승으로 자동화·로봇·자율주행 트럭·공장 자동화·3D 프린팅 등이 수혜를 받고, 장기적으로는 디플레이션 요인이 될 수 있다고 봄. 스태그플레이션 리스크: 가격과 임금은 오르는데 생산이 따라가지 못하면 경기침체가 올 수 있음. 테슬라 차량 인도 대기기간이 2주에서 4개월로 늘어난 사례를 들며, 대기업 매출 인식 지연과 포드 등 전통 자동차 업체의 타격을 지적. 리스크: 정책 당국이 공급 차질에 따른 인플레이션을 금리 인상 없이 잡기 어렵다는 점이 가장 큰 위험으로 제시됨.
다듬은 글
there's also a labor shortage so the labor force obviously uh here in the united states is much smaller than it was uh we all know that people are raising salaries to try to get people to come back to work they're turning off the bonus unemployment uh early in some states we're here in october this is all supposed to be turned off by now so i guess i'll start with you chamoth in terms of uh the markets here uh what do you think is happening and is this an acute risk or just something that will pass i think the well this is where i think i kind of generally disagree with the market i think that most people are under the impression that these are short-term um kind of contractions and expansions and that this is just the thing that needs to get work through the system as we readjust to a post covet world blah blah i think it's different and the reason i think it's different is if you just look at uh one thing and one thing only which is that we have a massive labor shortage in america and there is an incredible stat that i saw um which was the average hourly earnings of non-manager people in hospitality and travel and the average salary the mean salary was around 20 some odd dollars an hour and it's now 33 bucks an hour and so what that to me says is that we are going through a really sustained period where you cannot get people to do the work that needs to get done biden had to call the port of la and try to get these guys to be open 24 hours a day the president of the united states is calling a local port trying to get it to stay open but why can't they stay open because you have long sherman you have all these unionized folks who will expect to get certain levels of compensation which they deserve in order to do that work 24 7 but then all of that is going to get put through the system and if you still have millions of jobs that needs to get done in order for the economy to function the only efficient way that that's going to get resolved is by raising salaries and those are consistent and persistent wait those things are not just like oh you know what i gave yes i did say 50 bucks an hour but now i'm taking you back yeah you can't take that back that's going to be that's so and then so i tend to so that's one thing and then second so there's people right so labor capital i just think it's getting more and more expensive to get folks to do work and then there's the raw materials that you use to make anything and everything that i see is that stuff is going bananas and so i put these two things together and i'm like i think this stuff is here to stay um i'm really kind of a little bit of a you know and i and i had not worried and you you can see in every episode before this i was always consistently like there is no inflation you can fade the inflation trade now i'm kind of positioning myself to uh hedge myself in this situation the challenge is the rate of change this is what the fed tries to manage and you know there's a white house economic advisory committee that's involved in trying to figure out what's going to happen here because the current estimate is it's going to take at least a year or probably a year to work through the current log jam in the global supply chains and during that period of time as jamal points out what's happening is the cost for goods is climbing because people have to um charge more because there's limited inventory and people are bidding up the the value of that inventory as they do that the businesses end up needing to get more labor and so they have to pay more to hire people if they pay more to hire people those people end up demanding more and the cycle can actually go the wrong direction where you have an inflationary spike that persists how do you taper that inflation it's not necessarily great for economic growth if you can't produce the stuff and it can actually cause these runaway kind of effects in the dynamic system of supply and demand when you have these these these things clogging up the the system for supply so um so so it is a real risk and it is the biggest thing that um you know the white house this economic task force is kind of trying to figure out right now is where's the balance lie where you can um you know basically try and taper this inflationary effect that's being caused by this logjam in the supply chain without causing economic disruption by rising it by raising interest rates um and so it's a really kind of complicated you know second and third derivative formula that needs to kind of be resolved and that's why so many of these little elements are so important to get right by the way rates by the way central bankers around the world have raised rates the only place that hasn't gone up is europe ecb and the united states of federal reserve so and let's be honest you know europe and the united states we absorb labor and materials from all around the world right we are the net importers we are the net ultimate buyers of last resort of all of these things and so if you're seeing inflation in those other you know supply-driven economies they are going to come on shore they're going to hit us in the face i think prices are going up the other the other free market argument that could be made is that these um these current trends will accelerate a trend towards more automation of low-cost labor because it now will make sense for businesses to invest in the capital in the capex in the infrastructure and ultimately for technology companies to build that that tooling uh to support that infrastructure that will automate jobs like working in fast food like doing local delivery like doing factory assembly um like moving things across the country and trucks so self-driving trucks um uh you know factory automation biomanufacturing additive and 3d manufacturing and 3d printing these are all industries that could benefit from the fact that labor now for kind of you know traditionally low income work has gotten so expensive that it starts to make sense to switch to the technology alternative which historically may have been too expensive but now starts to make economic sense to businesses this is and so there's a number of these automation industries that may significantly benefit and that ends up ultimately being deflationary and the market comes into balance so that's another way to kind of think about the macro on what may play out here there's a bigger risk here than just inflation i mean there's also a risk of of stagnation or stagflation because it's not just that prices are going up and workers wages are going up which could be a good thing but goods and services aren't being produced so i mean i know like my own experience i recently ordered a tesla when i got a tesla a couple of years ago like i got in two weeks it was like almost instant this time they wanted me to wait two months and it's got an alert that's gonna take two more months beyond that so we have no idea and if if you know tesla doesn't get most the money i don't think until i actually take delivery of the car right that's when you make final payment so now they can't book that revenue in those earnings and tesla isn't even the car company that's most affected by this you know the big um you know traditional american auto companies like ford are even more affected so if companies cannot deliver their products you that can cause an economic recession
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