저자: LarryFink—영상진행자IjazCrypto는사회자로제외 · 외국인
요약 보기
래리 핑크는 관세 불확실성으로 CEO들이 투자를 보류 중이며 설비투자(capex)가 당분간 줄고 있다고 진단. 그럼에도 AI·데이터센터·인프라 메가트렌드는 유지되고 장기적으로 낙관. 관세가 물가를 자극해 인플레이션이 시장 예상보다 높아질 수 있고, 미국은 리세션에 이미 들어섰을 수 있다고 봄. 중국과의 무역합의·기술 경쟁은 계속되며 데이터센터 투자 피크는 없다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Oh, can you hear me? Okay, guys. We're going to switch over to Larry Frink, the CEO of Black Rockck, who's giving an interview with CNBC. Let's see what he's got to say to do with tariffs and everything else going on in the crazy world right now. You don't need that. Good. But maybe um happening is a lot of people are buying in advance of the elevated increases like lines around Apple stores buying iPhones and all that stuff.
But but I believe all the uncertainty is really taking everyone's pause. And everyone's Let's turn the volume down for that clap for the opening bell. We just say slow down until we have more certainty. And you know, we now have a 90day pause on the reciprocal ter. That means longer, more elevated. Hey, shush.
Larry Frink is speaking. Take a quick pause. Let's get the opening bell. We'll be right back for more than Batman. Who are they? the online pet pharmacy. Pet meds. There's something you want to buy. Dog gets sick, man, you got trouble. No doubt about it. No doubt about it. All right, Larry, let's let's continue.
I know we got a little bit of background here, but you're making the point. You obviously talked about this. Listen, we were talking about it. The uncertainty. So many CEOs we're speaking to. I've heard this now a number many number of times similar to early days of co like 5 years ago. I just don't know what coming.
I have no nothing to expect and so I'm keeping my head down. Is that is that a fair way to sort of characterize? I think that's a bad answer because you today you need to run into the uncertainty and try to find solutions. So keeping your head down, I would not like that as an answer as a shareholder with any CEO, right?
I mean to me this is an opportunity to look for opportunities to and because of all our clients having uncertainty we are spending more time with more conversation with more clients globally than any time our job now is to be you know helping calming giving them giving them ideas. So if if a CEO said I would keep my head down.
Well, I you know I I guess that would Yes, that was one the way one characterized it. But I guess it's the uncertainty itself that creates an inability to do long-term planning in terms of capital allocation. There's no question capex is falling right now until you have better understanding where should that capex go.
But I I do believe as I said in my talk this morning, I do believe the mega trends are still with us. whether it's a AI, data centers, infrastructure, uh the whole the whole reorientation of our economy. So I think the mega force trends are not going to change by what has happening now. But maybe the execution of some of these trends may be delayed, maybe pushed out longer, but I I still remain to be optimistic over the long run.
Yes, we have to recalibrate. Yes, I do believe we're probably starting. If not, we're in a recession. Yes, I think the market is still anticipating underestimating how high inflation can get. If you factor in all the tariffs, right, you factor in all these other issues, it's going to be quite additive.
I mean, I I I read in a report that if you just take the tariffs in the cost of home building, the average new home could be up as much as 26%. We already have a housing affordability problem. None of this sounds any good to me, Larry. I mean, and it's all self-inflicted, by the way. None of it needed.
This is not a pandemic. This is not a financial crisis. This is something that we've created. As I said also on Monday, the United States post World War II was a global stabilizer. We are the global destabilizer. Right. And that's a very, you know, that's a very hard thing to say because I pride ourselves of being the, you know, bringing the leadership, bringing the conversations, but I will say the power of US capitalism is still alive.
I will say more and more times clients worldwide are asking for our, you know, at least at the CEO level, they're asking for our vision, our views. Uh, they still want to engage. They still want to build. So I'm less I long term I'm less worried about some of these issues but in the short run I'm I'm petrified at some of these issues petrified let's speak of pet being petrified uh you and I are old enough to remember when Nixon went to China open the door or the gold you know walking away from the gold standard right the same couple of years and I think that there was anxiety then going the other way did we really think that we could have a great relationship with Ma who was a mass murderer did we think we actually do business with China.
We did a billion with them the next year, but then we next thing we know we're doing 100 billion. Now we're doing 438 billion. And now we want to do zero. How does zero impact our country? Well, we've had now 20 plus years of supply chain creations. Um, and you know, another economic force, Jim, post World War II was consumerism.
So we built the whole foundation of economic policy around consumerism, providing Americans with the cheapest products could. And so that was a foundation. Now that did that come at a cost that some of our communities were decimated where they lost jobs? Absolutely. So maybe we went too far on the whole concept of consumerism, but let's be clear, the major economic foundation was on based on consumerism.
And so we wanted our companies to go around the world to find the best places to provide the highest quality at the cheapest prices uh so we could consume more. And we always thought that that type of consumption was the most uh progressive form of economic behavior. More people could have more. And that was one of that was one the fundamental reason why the United States was the leader.
Yes. because our our citizens were huge consumers. By now changing this equilibrium, it's going to be harder to consume and we're going to have limited inflation. Do we can we afford to have no relationship with China? Do we have to have a dialogue? One of my asymmetric views is we will have a strong relationship with China one form or another.
I do believe we do need a trading agreement with China. I hope there's a future where we have conversation with China where China agrees to buy a hundred billion dollars of our agriculture to help our farmers. I hope there's a future where China agrees to buy a large portion of their LNG with US producers.
So there's there are but they don't need it and I know right at this time there's no conversation or little conversation. I know the whole issue that's going around it. But I do I am hopeful that we are going to have conversation with China that will hopefully allow us to have relationships that there is business.
Uh that being said, we are still going to have uh tensions related to technology. We are going to have to making sure that it's US technology that's going to be diffusing technology especially for AI. It should be US technology that is connecting the world, not Chinese technology. And you guys have been very uh very uh involved in financing some of that buildout of course being a key partner for example in the uh in the buildout of the of the AI infrastructure in terms of data centers and everything else and obviously not worry about the peak in data center that Wall Street's so fixated no peak there's no right in fact the capex that's necessary to do that is only going to grow as we democratize AI we need more data centers because the utilization will be greater So this is the they're but the costs are going to go up, aren't they?
Conceivably for the servers that go into a data center. Now a 1 gawatt data center with all the GPUs, all the power, all that. We're talking $50 billion per data center, right? We're talking major and this is but data centers don't throw off a big return. So a data center throws off even with leverage because at 11 or 14% return the that's fine for your I mean you're happy to finance it all day long but that's the beauty of our capital markets Microsoft trades at a much higher PE that owning owning data set degrades their PE same they don't want to they'd much rather have you pay you more of our capital markets but do does it this has been the most important thing we've been talking about for the last year and a half two years has been driving a lot of our our certainly our equity markets Do we slow down our advances as a result of some of these tariffs that are in place right now?
We better not because China's not slowing down in their technology. Um, it's putting it. We need the competition. Competition is good. They are not slowing down at all. We're not. And they're building 100 gawatts of power right now using nuclear. So, they're going to have the power generation to do AI.
This is one of my calls of action. We need to be forceful in building out our infrastructure that we have the power generation so we can do the but I I want to get to a lot of other subject but you see no slowdown at this point at all in terms of the spending by the hyperscalers the others who would be customers the data centers that you get behind there certainly could be all right guys that was black rockck CEO Larry Frink this guy let me just show you this here yep he's managing $10 trillion in assets under management and you're managing your little crypto portfolio and so am I but the reality as he says we could well be in a recession already.
He thinks markets could be underestimating the inflationary effect of these tariffs. He spoke about the China issue as well. We need to understand look this this is not something that's going to go away you know immediately. This is a big dump. We saw that you know the market's having to take this into consideration.
It's going to feed through to CPI. It's going to feed through to our inflation figures. It's going to feed through to earnings and hopefully just hopefully particularly the USChina deal can come to some semblance of normality.
Comments 0