저자: RonInsana · 외국인
요약 보기
스페이스X 상장(약 1.8조 달러 목표가, 매출 대비 91배)을 앞두고 고평가 우려를 제기. 상장 시 AI 관련주에서 자금이 빠질 수 있으며 한국 증시 하락이 기술주 조정의 선행지표가 될 수 있다고 진단. 중동 사태로 호르무즈 해협이 막혀 유가 하락까지는 수개월 걸릴 것으로 봄. 장기 투자자는 401k를 크게 조정할 필요 없다고 언급.
다듬은 글
By this time next week, Elon Musk could be the ver first member of the four comma club, the world's first trillionaire. And you, dear viewer, are likely to help him do it. This Friday, Musk's SpaceX is going public with a targeted valuation of nearly $1 .8 trillion. That's well, well above what some analysts think it is worth.
few days later, it will be a part of the index funds used likely by your 401k. So you'll be an investor in it whether you like it or not. Let's bring in MSNOW business analyst Ron Insana. He is the publisher of the message of the markets on Substack. So, Ron. Yes, ma'am. SpaceX has not turned a profit.
Nope. It has like a valuation of like, I forget what it is. It's 91 times sales. 91 times revenue. It doesn't make any money, but of the revenue, like all of the metrics seem cuckoo. Yes. Um, and how, how, why? Why is this value? What is going on here exactly? Let me just ask you. Well, as we move towards becoming an interplanetary species, SpaceX is very, very interesting to a lot of companies.
Within it, Starlink is a profitable unit. There's the XAI unit, which is their, you know, artificial intelligence unit. Grok? Grok is part of it, yeah. There have been, there has been. Twitter! When SpaceX, when SpaceX goes public, that means if it is in your index fund, you will be bailing out Twitter, my friend.
Yes. So look, the question really here is fundamentally, you know, is this the type of stock that you would buy at 91 to wait that out and get us, you know, a justifiable valuation. Look, the thing's probably going to pop at the open. There's no doubt there's going to be so much pressure to buy this stock.
And retail investors have access to it through various different brokerage houses. We expect it may go higher on its first trade. What happens after that's an open question? So likely SpaceX, IPO, that stock's going to pop. What's going to happen to all the other AI adjacent stocks THE MONEY IS GOING TO PROBABLY COME OUT OF.
SO THAT'S ALREADY STARTED. I MEAN, WE SAW THAT LAST WEEK. WE THINK THAT A LOT OF THE DOWNSIDE IN AI STOCKS AND SOME OF THE OTHER TECHNOLOGY STOCKS THAT SOLD OFF SO SHARPLY ON FRIDAY, YOU KNOW, WAS PART OF A FUNDRAISING EFFORT TO GET READY FOR THE $75 BILLION WORTH OF SPACEX THAT WILL BE SOLD TO THE PUBLIC ON FRIDAY.
DON'T FORGET ANTHROPIC IS GOING TO BE GOING PUBLIC RELATIVELY SOON, MAYBE OPEN AI. SO YOU HAVE THIS DELUGE of companies that are going to be selling stock to public. Google just sold stock as well. And so, that process has started. The one thing I'd watch tonight is how the South Korean market trades because they actually led the sell-off in technology stocks on Friday.
If they trade down tonight, we could have a little trouble tomorrow. Market's relatively calm even amid the Middle East activities going on right now. Oil is up less than $2. Stock index futures down a little bit. But this tech trade is getting very, very heavy. And, you know, retail historically has usually been the last one to get in on parties like these.
And so people should be a little careful with how they play it. So, Ron, is there anything us normal people can do to protect our 401Ks from Elon Musk's tomfoolery? Take it and go to Mars. Well, I mean, here's the thing. So you're all quite young and you have a long time until retirement. So this is not the type of thing you would worry about with respect to adjusting your portfolio, unless you're so overinvested in some of these names that you want to bring them, bring your exposure down a bit.
So it's, you're not so overweight, vulnerable stocks that might be in the technology sector. But if you're 10, 20 years out before RETIREMENT YOU WOULDN'T BE LOOKING AT YOUR 401K TO DO ANYTHING MEANINGFUL TO IT. NOT AROUND WHAT'S LIKELY TO BE, YOU KNOW, EVEN IF IT WERE A BEAR MARKET THAT LASTED A YEAR, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SEEN THAT OVER TIME STOCK MARKETS UP TEN YEARS, YOU KNOW.
SO LET ME ASK YOU JUST. just briefly about something else that may be weighing on our viewers' minds, which is that because of the recent developments today, the ending of the ceasefire, if it was ever a ceasefire, oil prices are up. A little bit. And what What do you think that means for gas prices in the next few months ahead?
Donald Trump says that they're going to come down very, very soon. Oh, they're not coming down very soon. I mean, as long as the rate of hormones remains closed, 20 % of the world's oil is not flowing to its planned destination. And even if it were to open tomorrow, it would take months for it to get there.
And countries are drawing down their available supplies of oil. So this is going to linger with us for quite some time. Same with fertilizers, same with materials that are used to WE CAN SEE A PANDEMIC LIKE THIS IS FAR FROM BEING OVER AND WE COULD SEE A PANDEMIC LIKE SUPPLY SHOCK IN THE ENERGY MARKETS IF THIS WERE TO GO ON UNTIL AUGUST.
DOES SPACEX USE THE SAME FUEL THAT THE REST OF US USE OR DOES NOT REALLY, DIFFERENT TYPES OF RUNNING. I DON'T THINK JET FUEL IS REALLY THE PROBLEM AT THE MOMENT. RON AND SANA ALWAYS GOOD TO SEE WE HAVE ANOTHER HOUR COMING UP AHEAD.
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