Equity investors are grappling with inflation and the bond market: Fundstrat's Tom Lee

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결론: 증시는 인플레이션 우려와 채권시장 변동으로 변동성이 컸지만 조정 후 매수 기회로 봐야 한다는 낙관론. 인플레이션과 채권시장: 투자자들은 지난 10년간 겪지 않았던 인플레이션의 주식 가격 반영 가능성과 채권시장이 연준을 시험하는 상황을 우려하고 있음. 채권시장이 연준을 움직일 수 있다고 느끼는 것과 커뮤니케이션 문제 사이에는 차이가 있으며, 후자라면 주식은 괜찮을 것이라는 시각. 변동성(VIX): 작년 VIX 평균이 약 30이었으나 올해는 평균 20 미만으로 낮아질 것으로 예상. 20 아래로 내려오면 강세 신호. 최근 VIX 급등은 디레버리징을 유발하므로 역발상적으로 인내심 있는 투자자는 이런 날 주식 비중을 늘려야 한다는 주장. 기술주 전망(Dan Ives): 도큐사인, 지스케일러 등 클라우드 종목이 30% 하락해 기회라고 평가. 애플은 시총 3조 달러 수준이며 올해 기술주가 추가로 30% 상승할 것으로 전망. 디지털 전환에 약 2조 달러의 추가 지출이 예상되며, 사이버보안도 핵심 테마로 제시. 테슬라: 전기차 시장 5조 달러 규모, 자동차 산업 전환 과정에서 침투율 3%에서 10%로 상승 가능하며 시총 1조 달러 수준을 여전히 유효한 목표로 제시. 중국 1월 판매가 견조할 것으로 전망. 유동성과 밸류에이션: 초저금리 유동성이 종목 밸류에이션과 관련 있다고 인정하면서도, 30% 하락한 클라우드·사이버보안 종목에 투자자들이 대기 중이라고 설명. 현재를 기술주 사이클의 중간 지점으로 평가.

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01. well i mean it's been uh i think it's been very rocky obviously the last couple weeks and i think equity investors in our conversations are really grappling with two things they may not have had to deal with for the last 10 years you know one is the potential for inflation to actually have to be priced into equities and i think there's a lot of confusion and then it's a bond market that seems to be testing the fed which kind of scares people because you know there's a difference between the bond market uh feeling like they can move the fed around versus the bond market maybe having a communication issue which i think muhammad was suggesting and if the latter is the case then i think stocks will be fine but yes it's been rocky and you know stocks are due for a correction so so i don't think we should be surprised that it's been bumpy and tom what do you make of the fact that the vix is once again climbing again i know when it pulled back significantly on on a single day you thought that was a bullish uh signal is this a bearish one uh yeah i mean the vix is a measure of markets a future expected volatility so in a way i think it generates signal two ways you know one is i think for the most part i think we should expect the vix to average this year at much lower levels because it averaged almost 30 last year i think it's going to average below 20 for the entire year so i think moving below 20 will be bullish but what we've had in the last couple days is as a spike in the vix and and whenever the vix spikes like this um we know that it triggers a lot of deleveraging so i i think in a w in a contrarian way as ugly as today was you have to remember this is a if someone is a equity investor you know with patient hands you know they should take advantage of days like this this is the days to be actually adding to their equity exposure on that note dan in this conversation you're the tech bull and we know how you feel about some of these names like apple of all of them that have gotten beaten up over the past few weeks on this rise in interest rates which one looks most attractive of the names you like i view this as a golden opportunity doing some of these cloud names like a docusign you look at a z-scaler as well and then ultimately apple and that's a three trillion dollar mark cap as we look out into the rest of this year we think tech stops are up another 30 i view this as just a white knuckle period which creates more opportunities given the two trillion dollars of incremental spend on digital transformation that's the key for us through the trees we continue to pound the table here what's your view on tesla from here dan i mean my view is we're going through obviously this risk off period you're seeing some of the you know worries on ev but it's a five trillion dollar market and i view that this is a company that's going to change automotive going from three percent penetration 10 and i still think this is the trillion dollar mark cap china start off rock in january we think that's going to be robust throughout the year that's why an ev that continues to be a bright green light with that as well as tesla so you're making the fundamental case and you've got the stories down pat for these stocks dan are you saying that the major liquidity environment and the super low interest rates don't have anything to do with the valuations and the names you're talking about oh it definitely does but when you look at some of these names down thirty percent like a docusign a z-scaler for what's redefining digital transformation in terms of cloud look at cyber security i could tell you the conversations i've had over the last 48 hours investors are waiting for this period and they're going to buy two hands full because to me that's really what's going to lead tech higher it's not just cloud cybersecurity it's saying names and we view this as just the middle of what's going to be a tech full cycl