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Ramdev Agarwal, Chairman and Co-founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, also made a big claim regarding this. Ramdev Agarwal's opinion about the market has proved to be correct to a large extent for the last 45 years and hence this claim is being considered very important. Ramdev Agarwal has made a big claim.
He believes that by 2030 the Sensex will touch the figure of 1.5 lakh and by 2035 it will touch the figure of 3 lakh. This prediction was made by Ramdev Agarwal on the basis of India's economic growth rate i.e. GDP growth, power of compounding and historical data. If you also believe in long term wealth creation then this claim can prove to be very important for you.
The question is how is the Indian stock market going to make such a big leap in the next 10 years and how can you benefit from this historic right ? Now according to Ramdev Agarwal, Sensex has been doubling every 5 years and this trend will continue in future also. Explaining his calculations, he said that in 1980, the Sensex was at the level of 100, which is now beyond 80 thousand.
That means Sensex gave 800 times return in 45 years. This means that the Sensex has achieved an annual compounded growth rate of 16%. If this trend continues, then in 5 years from 2025 to 2030, the Sensex will reach from 80 thousand to 1.5 lakh and then to 3 lakh by 2035. This is not just a guess but a prediction based on data.
Agarwal says that this target can be achieved by nominal GDP growth of 12 to 13% in the Indian economy and compounded growth of 15% in corporate profits. Now Agarwal also explained the economic development of India and while explaining he said that in 1995 the global economy was worth 25 trillion dollars which is 115 trillion dollars today and is expected to be 250 trillion by 2040.
India's contribution to this growth can reach $10 trillion in the next 25 years. If the poverty rate has come down from 97% in 1980 to 20-30% today and India has now become self-sufficient in food grains and forex reserves. Agarwal has also given an example of Reliance Industries and through the example of Reliance Industries he has tried to explain something.
Giving an example, he said that in 2003 to 2004, Reliance was a company worth ₹00 crore, which has now become a company worth ₹ lakh crore. It is the magic of compounding that can make investors rich in the long run. Now Agarwal says that by 2035 the market will become so big that we will not even be able to recognize it.
See this big claim Ramdev Agarwal is making about the stock market. Ramdev Agarwal also told four mega themes for investors which can give them huge profits in the next 10 years. The first theme is Quick Commerce. The quick commerce market in India can become worth $1 trillion. Agarwal is making this estimate.
Companies like Zomato, swig, blink will play a big role in this sector. The second estimate is of a boom in the capital markets. Increase in financial savings, NSC IPO and brokerage firms will be big beneficiaries. The third is energy transition. Solar and wind energy companies, which were once on the verge of bankruptcy, have today become multibagger stocks.
Now let's come to the fourth theme. The fourth theme is manufacturing. The government's PLI scheme and Make in India initiative have revolutionized the manufacturing sector. This trend, which started from Gujarat, has now spread across the country. Now, according to Agarwal, after 2020, Indian investors started investing huge amounts of money in the stock market.
Every year there is a domestic flow of Rs 50 to 100 billion which supports the market. See, foreign investors now hold only 17% stake. Whereas DII and retail investors have reached 33%. By 2047, promoters' stake will decline to 5 to 10%, which is a sign of a developed economy. If Ramdev Agarwal's prediction proves true then the Indian stock market will become a golden opportunity for investors.
But it is also important to remember that the magic of compounding works only when you invest for a long time. This means that today's investment will become tomorrow's wealth and if you choose the right stock at the right time, the next Reliance can also be in your portfolio. But this was just Ramdev Agarwal's estimate and a report based on it, which we have shared with you in the form of this video for your information.
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