저자: DanInvest · 외국인
요약 보기
PEG 지수(Peter Lynch 방식)로 저평가 기업을 찾는 방법을 설명. PEG = PER ÷ 이익성장률이며, 1 미만이면 저평가로 본다. 성장률은 회사 가이던스 또는 최근 5년 평균 이익성장률로 추정. 예시로 Banco do Brasil은 PER 4.98, 가이던스 기준 PEG 0.62, 5년 평균 기준 PEG 0.42로 제시. 채널의 자동 분석 스프레드시트 판매 홍보 포함. PEG는 성장률 추정 의존 등 한계가 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, in today's video I'm going to teach you step-by-step how to find the cheapest companies on the stock exchange using the PEG-HA formula popularized by the great investor Peter Lint. First of all, leave a like, subscribe to the channel, and activate the notification bell. Okay everyone, in this video I'm going to teach you step-by-step how to calculate the PEG-HA of any company listed on the stock exchange, and at the end of the video I'll show you how to access the spreadsheet on the screen that calculates the P/E ratio of all companies on the stock exchange in a completely automatic and up-to-date way.
So let's go to the video, but what exactly is PEG-HA? PEG-HA is a formula that allows you to evaluate a stock and takes into account the price-to-earnings ratio of the company and an earnings growth rate. This formula was popularized by the legendary manager Peter Lint. And what is this PEG-HA formula?
The PEG-HA formula is very simple, as you can see on the screen, PEG-HA equals the price-to- earnings ratio divided by a growth rate. How do I find the P/E ratio and estimate this growth rate? That's what we'll explain later. The first step to calculating the PEG-HA of any company is to find the... Price- to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio, of the company we are analyzing.
For those who don't know, P/E ratio is an indicator that means price-to-earnings ratio, which is simply the share price divided by the company's earnings per share. We can find this calculation ready-made or even perform this calculation ourselves. In this example, we will use Banco do Brasil, which has a current P/E ratio of 4.98.
We can go to the Investor 10 website and search for this information for Banco do Brasil. Right at the top of the site, we will find this information: P/E ratio price-to-earnings ratio 4.98. To calculate it, if you don't want to use this ready-made value, you can also calculate it yourself. The calculation is done by taking the share price and dividing it by the earnings per share (EPS).
We can find the EPS further down on the site, so let's note this value: 55.63, and we will divide it by the EPS. Banco do Brasil's EPS is here: 11.17. So we take the price and divide by 11.17, and we arrive at the P/E ratio of 4.98. Now that we have part of the formula filled in, the second step is to define the earnings growth rate.
Regarding the company we are analyzing, you can obtain this rate from the company's projections, which are usually reported in its reports. Another option is to project a future growth rate using the average profit growth of the company over the last 5 years. I will do both methods so you can follow the reasoning.
In the first example, we will use the projections provided by the company. In the case of Banco do Brasil, we look at the bank's report where we can see the profit projections for 2024. As you can see on the screen, the report shows that the bank projects a profit of 37 to 40 billion, meaning it estimates growing its profit by 4 to 12%.
So, to get this average growth rate, since it intends to grow from 4 to 12%, I will take 4 + 12 and divide by two to get an average. Therefore, we would have an approximate growth rate of 8 to 12%. So we go back to our slide and do the following calculation: 4.98, which is the P/E ratio, divided by the bank's expected growth rate, and we arrive at a Peg/ RTI of 0.62.
In the second example, I will use the average profit growth of the company over the last 5 years. We can also find this information on the Investidor10 website. Scrolling down a bit, we find this information: the average profit growth over the last 5 years is 11.92, meaning Banco do Brasil's profits grew by an average of 11.92% over the last 5 years.
So we go back to the slide and do the same calculation: P/E ratio of 4.98 divided by the average earnings growth of the last 5 years, then we divide by 11.92. And we arrive at a PEG-R of approximately 0.42. Okay Dan, I learned how to calculate the PEG-R. But how do I know if the PEG-R is good or bad?
Well, that's an excellent question. This slide on the screen explains exactly how to analyze the result obtained by Peter Lint's formula. According to Peter Lint, a PEG-R of one means that the stock is fairly priced in relation to its growth rate, but a company with a PEG-R much higher than one is probably overvalued, that is, it would be expensive, while a stock with a PEG-R below one is probably undervalued, therefore cheap.
At the end of the slide, here is the range of values to determine if a company is attractive or not. Let's see: if the company has a PEG-R between 0 and 0.5, the company would be very cheap; if the company has a PEG-R between 0.7 and 1, the company would be cheap; if the company has a PEG-R of 1 to 2, the company would be...
At its fair price and with a PEG ratio above two, the company would be expensive. You might say, "But Dan, do I have to calculate the PEG ratio of all listed companies and then rank them one by one?" The answer is no. On our channel, we have a spreadsheet that automatically and regularly analyzes all stocks on the stock exchange, taking into account the formula of great investors like Benjamin Graham and Peter Lint (which is the subject of our video) and the Medic formula developed by Joel Greenblatt.
As you can see, the purple table shows all listed stocks analyzed using Peter Lint's formula, automatically calculating their PEG ratio using the updated P of each company and the average profit growth over the last 5 years, ranking the company from cheapest to most expensive in a completely automatic way.
In this case, we can observe some stocks that are cheap according to Peter Lint's formula, such as Eucatex, Gerdau, Natura, Banco Amazônia, Petrobras, Kepler 3, UZ Minas, Unipar, and Banco do Brasil. Here is the index we calculated: 0.42 It's exactly the same here in our spreadsheet, and Banco do Brasil has a PEG ratio of 0.4, so the company would indeed be very cheap according to Peter Lint's formula.
The cool thing about this spreadsheet is that it has a heat map. As the company gets cheaper, it becomes greener; as it gets more expensive, it becomes yellow and red. Besides this function, you can also filter by the dividend yield of each company. Let's suppose you want to see stocks that are paying at least a 6% yield.
You go to the parameters tab and set the dividend yield to 6%. The spreadsheet will automatically re-analyze all the companies on the stock exchange and will show in the four analyses— Bazin, Graham Peterlin, and Magic Formula—only the companies that are paying more than 6% yield. This tool is very interesting because you can filter the companies that are paying good dividends.
You can also determine the minimum liquidity area. You can change the Bazin rate and also the Graham rate. Let's go back to zero here to leave it at the default value of our spreadsheet. Returning to the default of our spreadsheet, you can check here all the stocks analyzed by DCI Bazin using the average dividend.
This spreadsheet provides an analysis of each company over the last 5 years using Benjamin Graham's EPS and BVPS (book value per share) for all companies, updated according to Peter Lint 's formula. It also includes Peter Lint's ranking of the cheapest stocks according to his formula, and finally, a ranking of the cheapest stocks on the stock exchange according to the MIC formula.
If you want access to this spreadsheet and all this information automatically and up-to-date, I'll leave the link in the video description. The payment is one-time, and access is lifetime. However, as nothing is perfect, what are the limitations of the PEG-HA formula? The PEG-HA or PEG index offers valuable insight into a stock's value relative to its growth, but like all formulas, it has limitations.
It heavily relies on estimates of future growth, which are often subject to change due to factors such as market conditions or company performance. This is one of the reasons I prefer to use the average growth rate of the last 5 years, and that's why our spreadsheet also uses this average growth rate of the last 5 years.
With the average growth rate of the last 5 years, we can minimize the risk of making significant projection errors. I think it's interesting to use the average growth rate of the last 5 years for each company. It's worth highlighting that in the case of Banco do Brasil, as you saw in the bank's projection, it's rare for the bank to be wrong.
So, depending on the company, you can use the company's projection, or the average of the last 5 years. If I'm not mistaken, Banco do Brasil is always within its projections. In 2023, it projected a profit of 33 to 37 billion and executed 35.6 billion. Let's see now in 2024 if Banco do Brasil will stay within the projections to offer a profit of 37 to 40 billion.
So that's it, folks. I hope you enjoyed the video. Any questions or suggestions, leave them in the comments, and don't forget to like, subscribe to the channel, and activate the notification bell. Hugs, bye!
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