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Jamie Dimon was asked about how this affects the economy. Here's what Jamie had to say. He says Iran's conflict won't won't be major inflationary hit. Rob, I don't know if you have a clip on this. I think you do. Uh go forward. Uh as people kind of think about the potential ripple effects of higher oil prices, for example, obviously today's move is is just one day.
Uh do you see a risk that this could lead to sustained inflation over the long run? Not I don't think this thing in isolated way will, you know, it is some risk that there's more inflation than people think. And that could be like a skunk in a party if that ever happens. You know, hopefully it doesn't happen and you know, no one actually knows, but you know, this right now will increase, you know, gas prices a little bit.
And again, if it's not prolonged, it's not going to be a major inflationary hit. Again, if it went on for a long time, that would be different. Another concern that I've seen uh mentioned out there is the risk of retaliatory cyberattacks. Banks being a a potential target there. How concerned are you about that?
I know that's something that you mentioned in your your letter about a year ago. I think the most important thing is that we keep the Western world free and safe for democracy. You know, when people like this have gotten away literally with murder for 50 years. So, that's far more important. But, you know, as a as a corollary to that, they you got to expect there'll be cyberattacks or terrorist attacks either here or around the world.
You know, banks may be targets or may you know, plenty of other people. Uh and we and we always try to be prepared for that. We never try to predict when, why, or where. We we spend a lot of money protecting ourselves for cyber. We think it's part of our job, but I've always said I would consider it one of the highest risk banks bear.
Not just the cycle, cyber. Yes, I I remember that from your your letter last year. And of course, we are here at the Leveraged right there. Tom, thoughts. So, Jamie Dimon is speaking at the Global Leveraged Finance Conference. Translation, this is where they have their butt hung out with billions and billions and billions of global leverage.
Translations, loans to the rest of the world. The only thing he's going to do is be a Secretary of State and try to to to talk about calmness. Especially sitting there at his own conference on global leveraged finance. The last thing he wants would be to make some spook comments because Jamie is probably one of the few voices in America outside the Fed that can move a market like radically because a lot of people fall behind him.
Snyder. Yeah, I Jamie and inflation, there's a there's a tortured history there. I mean, last year he talked about how tariffs were going to create much more inflation than people were people were expecting. And at the same time, the JP Morgan was buying US Treasury bonds hand over fist. So, you never know what he's actually But you're right.
He is more of a politician Exactly. He's more of a politician than anything. And so, you're I mean, his whole point here is to to maintain calm. He realizes that if oil prices go higher, it's going to create a bunch of trouble of trouble. There's already trouble percolating up in the credit markets to begin with, especially in private credit and leverage credit, leverage loans in particular.
So, he is Yeah, let's let's keep this at the absolute minimum so that people don't get too upset about what's taking place. Mark. Well, I think as as you said, I mean, when you when Jamie talks, you have to listen. He's he's one of the few people that can move markets, as you said. He understands what's going on.
Now, of course, he has to talk his own book, and his job is to calm the market, so to speak. But I would say, you know, as far as is he right or wrong, of course, he's right. It's pretty obvious. If this is a prolonged conflict, we're going to have inflation for any number of reasons, and we can go through the list of what those are.
If this is relatively short, it gets wrapped up in four or five weeks, as Trump said, maybe it will, then probably it's just a little blip, and it's not a big deal. But certainly, we already see a little bit of a uptick in oil prices, a little bit of uptick on gas. Um I think not only about prices going up because of supply chains and oil prices, etc.
But also because of the sheer amount of debt uh and monetary stimulus we're going to need to fight this war as well. So, if it's prolonged, yes, we're going to have inflation. And I think, you know, Trump ran on a couple of main points. Uh number one, bringing inflation down. Two, having markets do very, very well.
And three, peace, no wars. And so, a sustained conflict takes away all three of those points. Uh but two, anyway, to to to Jamie's points, if this is sustained, yeah, inflation's going to be a problem. Okay. All right, we'll see. I mean, last time, Rob, we ran a poll, the poll was, how long you think this is going to last?
And what was the number? 57% said less than 4 weeks. Some 50 to 60% said less than 4 weeks. Are you guys in the same spot? You're not? I don't know. Okay, why don't we do this, Rob? Why don't we do this? I think it'll last longer. Don't say anything, Rob. Run another poll, identical. Because now it's been how long?
It's been 5 days, right? Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. We're now Today's Wednesday or Thursday? I think today's Wednesday. Today's Wednesday. Today's Wednesday. 5 days. They all blend together. Ask the same exact question, and I'm curious to know what the audience is saying on how long they think it's going to last now.
And pull it up on Polymarket, too. They They Polymarket has it up and Calshium Polymarket They have it. So, okay, we'll take a look at that as well. Rob, if you want to pull pull that post that, I'm curious because I'm sure there's a calshium on that. 100% there's going to be calshium. Rob, did you post it or not yet?
Oh, I'm posting it right now. The other The other day, Polymarket had it like 50% ending in like 12 weeks. Ending in 12 weeks? Yeah, 50%. A couple days ago. I don't know where it's at as of today. What do you think it's going, Jeff? I think this is more complex than people want to give it credit for.
4 weeks, I think, is overly optimistic. This is a very complex operation that takes time. And unlike previous administrations, they're I mean, they're absolutely right talking about this. I mean, think about the first Gulf War. Um as soon as they got into the complex part of it, the Bush administration said, "Oh, we're done." They stopped way short of where they probably should have, and I think it was a realization that to to to go to the final lengths that they wanted to go to, the final lengths that the Trump administration wants to go to, this is not a 4-week operation.
This is a complex operation that's going to take time. It's going to take an investment. I think they're laying the groundwork for that to take place. That's why they're saying 4 weeks, maybe 5. We'll see how it goes. Um but that doesn't mean it's going wrong. It just means it takes time to do what they're trying to do, because what they're trying to do is not have to do this every couple of years.
Yeah, it's funny. Right now, if you look at the poll, Rob, if you want to pull it up. Is that it? Yes, sir. Okay, it's 2,000 sample size. Uh a little over 2,000. 25% less than a month, 1 to 3 months, 44% 3 to 6 months, 12. 6 months plus, 19. Now, when we did the same exact poll on Saturday, look what Saturdays look like.
You have a picture of it, Rob, if you just want to It's going to be a little bit pixelated. Um how long do you think it'll last? 6,000 votes, 47% less than a month. And that is now flipped from less than a month to 1 to 3 months in 5 days. So, uh uh I'll take the 1 to 3. You'll take the 1 to 3? 1 to 3, and I and I say that based off of uh Trump seems to have this pattern.
So, if you look at uh this pattern that he has where uh if we look at uh the tariff negotiations, for example, right? He has this pattern where he comes in and says, "Hey, if uh we're going to make a deal, and uh I'm going to take everything from you." Really, really strong. And then he sort of like backs off, like, "Make a deal." Then he started moving warships over, started staging them.
So, we saw it happening with Maduro, as well. Started staging the ships, started applying pressure. And then he backs it off, he starts kind of seeding the news stories, like, "Hey, there's probably a deal coming." Then no deal happens. And so, you see these waves of power. And so, when we look at uh the tariffs, when we look at uh Maduro, uh Venezuela, etc.
I I I think about 6 to 12 weeks seems to be about the time frame that it takes to go from like that that sort of first pressure to get in the deal done. Do you have the Calcha numbers, Rob? And we'd have to say what done looks like. Yeah. And so when I say done, obviously to your point, this is probably going to take a long time.
But what I would say what done looks like is is where the war de-escalates. Yes. What What is this? This shows what? when the Straits of Hormuz is no longer no longer any threat and then they can still do whatever it is they need to do. It's really the active conflict that leads to potentially escalating escalating branches.
I mean, that's that's really Well, we'll we'll see that part. Go back to that Calcha, Rob. Is that the one that we're looking at? US Iran nuclear deal. Oh, that's a whole different thing. I think that part I don't Again, if it's regime change versus regime collapse, who the hell is negotiating nuclear deal?
If it's about regime collapse, there is no nuclear deal. We're not doing no nuclear deal with you. It's just there is no conversation similar to how And this says what? This says who the next leaders are going to be? Yes, sir. Well, they have this one figured out. price 7 million $7 million waged on this one.
Interesting. By the way, you know who's quietly coming up, Tom? Who's getting more press than JD? If If you were to right now go and look you look at minutes on TV, okay? The last 90 days, who has more? Is it Hexet or Rubio? I'm say Hexet or JD. Yeah. Uh Paul 90 days Oh, I've It's Hexet and Rubio over JD.
So you realize that It's It's anyway you want to look at it. As they should right now. It is as they should right now, but that's also, you know, a lot of these Calchas have JD at the top. Now Hexet's coming up. So imagine this ends good for Hexet. Now you have a three-way race of who's going to be running for 2028.
You have JD, you have Rubio, and you have you know, Hexid wanting to put his hat in the ring. Didn't Rubio say if JD runs, I'm not going to run? He did. But, let me tell you, the people that are in his ear they have a lot of work to do to kind of shift his mindset to be like, "Look, you know, you you don't get a Think about how hot DeSantis was in 2020, 2021.
Remember how hot he was at one point? And he won by 34,000 votes first time, second time he won by a million and a half. Yeah. So, how many chances you Everybody forgot already what DeSantis did. Yeah. DeSantis' news is yesterday, right? If this is happening right now, Hexid may want to get involved uh and and participate in some of the stuff that's going on.
we forget, because remember that we were talking about that for 3 days on a national level, not just this podcast. On a national level when um the re-election of DeSantis. Oh my gosh, he won Dade County. Remember that? A Republican won Dade County. It was only Orange County, a small, you know, part of Orlando he lost.
Oh my gosh, he's on a roll. And guess what? One season later. For those of you guys that are watching this and and you're tuning I got two more stories to do before we wrap up. Remember, this is the biggest request I have from you. 51% of you watch our podcast who are not subscribed to it. You just watch it, consume it regularly, but you haven't pressed that subscribe button.
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