저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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2022년 7월 기준 미국 증시와 암호화폐가 대폭 하락한 상황을 진단하며, 경기침체 진입과 추가 하락 가능성을 강조하는 영상. 경기 상황: 실업수당 청구건수가 약 16.7만 건에서 23.1만 건으로 약 35% 증가했고, 기업들의 대규모 감원이 확산 중이라고 설명. 주택 시장: 거의 모든 지표가 약화되고 있으며 주택 시장이 하락 전환될 것으로 봄. GDP: 애틀랜타 연은 GDP 나우 추정치가 -2.1%로 하향되었고, 1분기 실질 GDP가 -1.6%였으므로 기술적 침체 정의(2분기 연속 마이너스)에 해당한다고 주장. 인플레이션과 증시: 전 세계적으로 인플레이션이 신고점을 기록 중이며, 증시가 정상 성장 범위로 돌아가려면 더 떨어져야 하고 현 폭락의 절반 정도만 진행됐다는 시각도 소개. 암호화폐: 비트코인은 2021년 11월 고점 약 6.9만 달러에서 약 1.95만 달러로 하락, 200주 이동평균(약 2.25만 달러) 아래에 있음. 2022년 3분기는 2011년 이후 최악의 분기로 언급. ARK 보고서 인용 온체인 지표(단기 보유자 원가, 미실현 손실 25% 기준)가 아직 바닥 신호를 보이지 않아 추가 하락 가능성을 제시. 결론 및 장기 전망: 암호화폐 생태계는 투명성과 초과담보 구조로 장기적으로 신뢰가 쌓이며, 나쁜 뉴스가 곧 좋은 뉴스이고 새벽 전이 가장 어둡다는 낙관적 견해도 제시. 다만 최근 1년간 부정적 입장을 취한 이들이 알고리즘 추세 추종의 반대편에 서게 될 것이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
the stock market has not seen a worse a worse year to date since 1962. when it comes to bonds this has been the worst year to date performance in bonds in anyone's lifetime kathy wood just gave her latest update and unfortunately it's looking pretty bad for the stock market and crypto investors the us stock market is having its worst year in over 50 years tech stocks are having their worst year ever and it's the worst bond market performance in over 100 years unfortunately as much as i would class myself as an optimistic person there seems to be more bad news than good right now and so in this video we'll be looking at the key points made by kathy wood and why things could be going from bad to worse for stocks and crypto starting with the overall economy and everything is indicating we are going into recession we're hearing about layoffs we're hearing about venture capital firms advising their companies to lay off quickly uh because this is bad uh and and that is happening we're seeing initial unemployment claims moving up claims have gone from and sixty thousand 167 thousand uh during the week of april first uh to 231 000 so that's a 35 increase and that's a change in trend to be sure the other thing is changing is housing almost every metric is showing weakness we'll get the odd increase here and there but housing is definitely losing steam we got today gdp now which is the atlanta fed's version every day economic statistics come out the atlanta fed adjusts its real gdp number for that quarter and today they reduced it uh to a decline of 2.1 percent so two weeks ago they two or three weeks ago they were they had a positive one percent last week they went to a minus one point one percent and now it's minus two point one percent so uh put that together with real gdp at minus 1.6 in the first quarter and we have a recession the technical reset definition of a recession is two consecutive negative quarters of real gdp growth and so clearly not a good outlook jobless claims increasing by 35 companies doing rounds of layoffs all over the place inflation setting new highs all around the world the housing market now predicted to decline and the atlanta fed saying we are now already in a recession and it looks to me we still have further to fall for stocks to get back to a more normal growth range and some people are even saying we are only halfway to the bottom of this current crash next up we have the crypto market which is also having one of its worst years on record crypto had its worst quarter since 2011 and it's a much more mature market than it was back then with the boom bust so that's saying something fears of systemic collapse have been rife in the marketplace uh so we we've seen uh bitcoin it peaked way back in november at 69 000 and it is now at 19.
19 500. um uh it is still higher than its pre-covered seven to ten thousand range and it is just about at its uh 20 uh 2017 high so this could be some support it's also at um it's it's it is below its uh it's 200 week moving average which is at 22 500. so there is some concern that that is the new resistance so bitcoin is back to its all-time high price in 2017 and we find ourselves below the 200 week moving average which historically says is a very rare opportunity for accumulation however reading through the latest report from arkhamvest this month they included a couple of charts which indicate a bigger crash may still be to come the first chart shows that a true market bottom occurs when the short-term holder cost basis exceeds that of the long-term holders which has not yet happened and the second chart shows that historically a true market bottom occurs when the unrealized losses exceed 25 from the market average which again has not yet been met suggesting a bigger drop is still to come so obviously lots of bearish news this month we are teetering on the edge of a recession inflation is running rampant around the world and even causing riots in some countries so apologies for being the bearer of bad news but sometimes we have to face things as they are okay to finish up and let's try and finish on something a bit more positive and this is the outlook for the mid to long term so the what i will leave with is what's happened in the crypto market gives you a sense of why it is a very um why it's going to work long run it's transparent um and there's a lot more trust in the crypto ecosystem because of the transparency and the over collateralization than i think there is in the traditional financial markets so bad news is good news and it's always darkest before the dawn and i i believe we've passed the darkest place there are others out there we're reading them in the press they say we're only halfway there and um i think they follow algorithms i've watched a bunch of algorithmic behavior uh that you know just chases chases as an idea chases an idea until it stops and i think we're getting close to that point where they who seem so right with their negative stance over the last year or so will be on the wrong side of that trade you
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