저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 래리 윌리엄스의 기술적 지표를 근거로 증시는 연말까지 상승이 이어지며 홈디포·월마트·UPS도 유망하다는 주장. 시장 심리: 여름 공포장에서 역전된 수익률곡선과 침체론이 과장됐다고 평가하며, 감정 대신 객관적 지표(차트)를 활용하라고 강조. 윌리엄스 지표: 8월 저점을 정확히 예측한 것으로 소개. VIX(공포지수)는 연말 무렵 상승 전환 전까지 하락 후 증시 상승, 등락주선(advance-decline line)은 현 시점부터 강한 상승 신호, E-mini S&P500 선물도 추가 상승 예고. 개별 종목: 홈디포는 계절성 상승 패턴과 기관 매수 흐름이 긍정적이라 연말까지 갈 종목으로 제시. 월마트는 기관 매수 확대로 추가 상승 여력이 크다고 평가. UPS는 소매업체 연말 호조 시 수혜 패턴이 강하며 실적 발표 후 하락은 부당했고 더 오를 것으로 봄. 리스크/기타: 라이트에이드는 부채와 약한 흐름을 이유로 보유 금지 권고. 월그린은 부진한 차트로 비추천 취급. 방송 말미 질의응답에서 JPMorgan 등 특정 기업 언급은 광고성 성격으로 보임. 출연자 전망: 짐 크레이머는 윌리엄스 전망을 진지하게 받아들이라고 권고하며 홈디포 장기 보유 입장을 재확인.
다듬은 글
when the market gets too emotional you need to do everything you can to cordon off that whole part of your brain because your gut feelings rarely give you a good investment advice over the summer there was a widespread sense of panic it threw a lot of people off the scent got a lot of these chicken little squawking the sky was falling I tell you that the inverted yield curve meant that we had to have a recession and therefore the averages had to go much lower turns out they were dead wrong the Fed cut interest rates the yo curve an inverted and the stock market were higher they don't they're not they don't talk about that much anymore do they at the time I told you not to take the Bears too seriously because they were ignoring everything that was going right with the economy but it can be hard to make those judgments so many experts are telling you to be afraid be very afraid that's why I always like to tell you to check your emotions at the door when that gets difficult when the sense of doom and gloom is just too palpable too overwhelming you should fall back on something maybe more objective or a quantitative approach that's where the charts come in now I myself as you know and not a huge believer in the charts I think that they are very important their Wall Street speed for looking at the action to predict where security might be headed I prefer to stick with the fundamentals do we homework on how businesses are doing and then figure out what that means for their stocks but fundamental analysis requires a lot of judgment calls and when you're constantly being bombarded by big picture worries as you know we are every day the yield curve the trade where the Fed well it messes with your judgment doesn't the charts they don't have any feelings for any of that stuff they're much less objective its objective and that's why we were running off the chart segment every week during the big sell-off over the summer we checked in with a fella by the name of Larry Williams he's a legendary technician who's been trading futures commodities and stocks from really as long as I've been alive Williams isn't an industry legend a Titan he's written almost a dozen books he's got his own website I really trade calm and he's created a legion of technical indicators that have been adopted by pretty much every TARDIS Under the Sun like the Williams percentage our oscillator that tells you when a stock is overbought or oversold we use that all the time that's him and later August Williams made a bold contrarian call he told us we need to stop worrying and learn to love the stock market because the negativity had run its course and the averages were ready to roar since then the SPL hundreds rallied a quick seven points people said that's phenomenal move it a great call by Larry so where we go next well Larry checked in with us and take a look at this let's start with two tools that let him call the bottom in August first check out this chart of the CBOE Volatility Index that's the VIX for short which is also known as the fear gage because it reflects the level of panic in the market that's why the VIX the sp500 tend to move in opposite directions now way is ways that there's a cycle to volatility and he tries to predict that cycle based on the VIX is past behavior you can see his forecast in red on the chart okay and remember he nailed it with this forecast last time havoc right now based on the cycle Williams is expecting a sustained upturn in the volatility index right around the end of the year over here okay but until then he thinks it will head lower which means that the stock market she continued to climb okay that's what he's saying that should happen now there's a there's an advanced decline line that he also cares about and that measures the net sum of advancing stocks - declining stocks new york stock exchange on any given day the number that goes up up versus the number that go down williams has been following this indicator get this since 1962 because the size it size sets a rational price swings giving you a clear view of the markets breath when I say sighs that's what it means is to smooth things over so you don't have any outliers that are distorting things when it rises that means you've got a healthy market with lots of winners when it fails and goes down it means you got a lot of losers just like with the VIX Williams looks at the past action and comes up with a forecast to figure out where it's headed and in the case of the advance decline line his forecast predicts a major uptick starting right about now just like we saw in late August this very very bullish so in other words Vance the Klein lying cycle forecast move it up okay that's a nice move to catch now I want you to take a look at the daily chart of the e-mini S&P 500 futures which closely tracked the underlying index even though the S&P has been a lot of tear and it's technically in overbought territory William sees a cycle here that's about to turn even more bullish now these are forecasts don't tell you the magnitude of the give move they will imprint its direction but right now is forecast for the S&P is screaming that we're about to go higher still this really doesn't it stuff till with what I said at the top of the show right I mean kind of pretty fascinating is it I so now talk about individual stocks because this also dovetails to thorium first let's check out a stock that my shadow just assumed forever check out Home Depot all right now a Williams likes the action here first the stock benefits from a bullish seasonal pattern the blue line okay there's Bush this is how it looked before I typically causes retailers to rally going into Christmas he points out that Home Depot's been outperforming the usual seed seasonal expectation which suggests that the stock will really go into year once that pattern turns extra positive and if in a few weeks said it there's this thing that he developed to find out what professionals are doing and predicted it's called the William Scott CCO TSI it's one of his proprietary tools and it helps detect whether big institutional money managers are buying or selling lately they've been buying Home Depot and they've been buying a hand over fist and that's a very good sign he thinks this is exactly the kind of stock that could work through the end of the year and you know I'm a big fan of Home Depot long-term I got a conference call on Wednesday and I was thinking oh do we have to sell some Home Depot for my trust I trust what Larry Williams so much the answer is gonna be no next up there's one more now this stocks been an excellent performer here Williams call centers the mother sees little strength of the retail cohort meanwhile the professionals just started buying aggressively a few weeks ago to get in ahead of the holiday shopping spree Williams is betting there's a lot more upside I am with him although I didn't see it here we go okay professional buying I didn't think this was as strong as Home Depot but I'm not gonna go against them finally how about this one somebody a lot of people feel that this is so simple to do and yet it's been wrong for so long I don't think it's gonna be this time it's a United Parcel somebody has to live all those packages right that you are online nobody does better than UPS whenever the retailers have a strong Christmas that tends to spill over into the ancillary plays like this one wow this is good this could be big and that's why the seasonal pattern UPS is so strong based on this pattern Williams believes it's got more room to run now if you're member the stock got hit okay went reported I came out of here said that was wrong it shouldn't have got hit it should be going higher that's what it's doing and I think it goes higher still bottom line and later walks been so many commentators were freaking out coming on air telling you how scary this the legendary Larry Williams told us the negativity was peaking and the stock market was poised to go higher well guess what he nailed it so when he tells us that the average keep running through the end of the year along with Home Depot Walmart and UPS you better take him seriously Nick and Florida neck boy your land well okay we're not in Kansas anymore what's up um recently late a had an enormous run off now that WBA thinking of throwing private is it good to buy Rite Aid and hopes that it will get approached to no no while the bouncy for for Walgreens is sub-optimal 16 billion a day the bouncy from right it's just horrendous no one's gonna load it anymore and with debt on that one so I'm gonna say you should not be in that stop do not be in that stop okay let's go to Jim in New York Jim oh darn it we're out of time all right our charters thinks the averages can keep running through the end of the year along with Home Depot Walmart and UPS I recommend taking him seriously okay much more minute money at JPMorgan Sam you gotta make 31 million dollars this year got a problem with that I'll tell you who to take it up quick then it's one of the biggest names in helping biotech ones game-changing drugs but King Charles River labs give your portfolio to help me boost an uncertain market
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