저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 향후 미국 인플레이션이 매우 심각해지고 달러 붕괴가 통화위기로 이어질 것이라고 경고한다. 인플레이션 전망: 정부가 지출을 줄이지 않고 연준도 긴축을 하지 않아 고인플레이션은 불가피하다고 주장한다. 사회보장·메디케어 혜택은 지급되지만 생활비 상승을 따라잡지 못해 실질 구매력이 떨어진다고 본다. 짐바브웨식 최악 시나리오는 아니더라도 1970년대보다 훨씬 심각할 것이라고 말한다. 과거 인플레 평가: 2021년은 1970년대 어느 해보다 나빴거나 그 이상이었으며, 당시 물가 측정이 덜 정확했을 뿐이라고 주장한다. 이미 1970년대보다 나쁘지만 앞으로 훨씬 더 악화될 것이라고 본다. 달러 붕괴 시나리오: 인플레이션을 본격적으로 가속할 촉매는 달러의 큰 폭 하락이라고 본다. 달러지수(DXY)가 현재 약 102 수준이며, 2008~2011년 저점이었던 70 아래로 붕괴하면 자유낙하 구간에 들어설 것이라고 예측한다. 과거처럼 세계 각국이 달러를 방어해주지 않을 것이라고 본다. 준비통화 지위 상실: 각국이 달러에서 벗어나려 하고 준비통화 지위가 약화되면서 통화위기가 올 것이라고 주장한다. 수십 년간 해외로 수출된 달러가 재유입되어 상품을 사려 하지만, 미국은 생산이 적어 공급이 붕괴하고 달러 공급은 폭증할 것이라고 본다. 이는 코로나 봉쇄보다 더 큰 충격이라고 말한다. 무역적자 및 정책 비판: 기록적 무역적자가 지속되고 있으며 달러 붕괴 이후 이것이 중요한 문제로 부각될 것이라고 본다. 일본은행이 4% 인플레이션에도 금리를 올리지 않고 국채를 매입하는 등 정책 실패가 이어지고 있다고 비판한다. 인플레는 미국·유럽·일본 정치인과 중앙은행의 공통 실수이며 바이든 정부와 연준 책임이라고 말한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 인플레와 달러 약세가 장기간 심화될 것이라는 비관적 전망이며, 구체적 단기 매매 지시나 종목 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
inflation is going to be uh rampant I mean that that's just the way this is going to end up there's no other politically viable alternative I don't see the significant cuts to government spending that would be necessary to avoid much higher inflation I don't see the FED uh pursuing the type of monetary policy that would really be necessary to force the government into you know making those difficult choices I think all the factors are going to come down on inflation they're going to keep on spending money they're not going to cut anything uh everybody's going to get paid their so Security benefits and their Medicare benefits and their pensions the problem is the money is not going to buy very much because if you need $1,000 to buy a pack of chewy gum I doubt your Social Security benefits are going to keep Pace with that you know even though they do have these cost of living adjustments they're not going to capture anywhere near the degree to which the cost of living is actually going up and like it doesn't have to get as bad as Zimbabwe right that's a worst case scenario you know or wart Republic Germany I mean you you have these examples of a severe hyperinflation but I think there's no question that we are going to suffer very high inflation you know whether it ends up being the type of inflation you know where we're all trillionaires because everybody in zag it's not they're all millionaires they're all trillionaires right but but you know what good is a trillion zagwe doll than then even buy you a pack and chewing up uh for a trillion trillion Zimbabwe dollars uh maybe you could get a stick I'm not sure um so I don't know that it's going to be that bad but it's going to be very bad certainly it's going to be on an order of magnitude far greater than you know what Americans experienced during the 1970s in fact I think 2021 was as bad if not worse than any year of the 1970s uh we just didn't measure prices as accurately uh in 2021 or 2022 as we did back in 1978 1979 those you know years where inflation was very high or throughout the Whole Decade so I think it's already been worse than the 70s but it's going to get a lot worse and I think the Catalyst for inflation you know kicking into a much higher gear is going to be a large drop in the value of the dollar versus other currencies that hasn't happened yet the US dollar Index is still you know trading around 102 uh I think once it cracks through 70 you know that was about the low in 2008 2011 time frame that was a record low for the dollar I think once we take that out we're going to be just in freef Fall territory and I don't expect the rest of the world to come to the rescue of the dollar the way it did at that period of time the world really uh supported the dollar in its time of need and and propped it up but I think those Nations that defended the dollar so vigorously in the past are no longer allies with the dollar I think a lot of those countries now want out of the dollar they don't want to try to go out of their way to defend the US Dollar's Reserve status and to maintain that monetary order I think a lot of countries are going to you know uh you know take uh you know I don't know if it's Pride or be Be Be Joyful in looking at the Dollar's demise and they're going to maybe feel Vindicated or uh feel that America is getting what it deserves so I I I I think we're really setting ourselves up for a currency crisis as the dollar loses its uh you know status as this Reserve currency and that is going to be the impetus for significantly higher uh price increases in the United States as all this money that that we have been exporting uh for decades you know comes back looking to buy stuff and of course you know we don't make much stuff thanks to you know the system we've been running these record trade deficits in fact we had another horrible trade deficit that came out last week uh that should have tanked the dollar and would have you know had it been released in the 1980s when people still cared about the trade deficits but you know right now they're not but they are going to Care once the dollar really starts to crack and these trade deficits are unfin and without the trade deficits there's nothing to buy because all the stuff that we buy is being imported but we're not paying for it we're just printing money uh but when the world doesn't want the money we print anymore then we're not going to have any ability to get the stuff they produce and so the supply of goods is going to crash just as the supply of dollars is going to explode it's going to be worse than what happened with the covid lockdowns you're going to see a bigger supply and demand in Balance when the dollar crashes uh than when we just had you know Co because during Co we could still you know import even though other countries were still locking down we still had access to a lot of imports the dollar went up and so we were able to continue to consume even though we didn't produce but that's going to change dramatically I think during this dollar collapse you know this morning uh the Dollar's up you know because the some some somebody at the bank of Japan even though they've got uh 4% inflation officially which is the highest in 40 years they're not doing anything about it in fact they're they're they're they're bragging about it they're saying this is great you know we dodged the bullet of uh deflation so we're happy that we have some inflation now and so there's no reason to raise interest rates they're still negative you know we don't have to stop printing money and buying Japanese government bonds you know they've got the 10-year jgb pegged at about a half a percent you know it was pegged the 25 basis points for a while that they couldn't defend that anymore so now they're they're at 50 but you can't defend that either if inflation is 4% you know what idiot is going to loan money for 10 years at a half a percent uh but the Japanese are you know back themselves into a corner where they can't fight inflation so they might as well welcome it and pretend that it's a good thing but the question is when are the Japanese people going to revolt about having too much of a good thing because inflation is going to keep getting worse in Japan just like it's getting worse in Europe and the United States and the reason that inflation is problem all around the world is because politicians and Central Bankers made the same mistake in Europe and Japan that they made here I mean that's why it's a global problem you know it's not that it it absolves these politicians if you hear Biden talk he'll say well you know there's inflation in Japan there's inflation in Europe so it's not my fault that we have inflation in America right no it it is his fault and it's the fed's fault because the politicians all over the world made the exact same mistakes and now they're all suffering the same consequence
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