저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 스태그플레이션 속 심각한 경기침체와 금융위기가 올 것이며, 중앙은행은 결국 물러서 인플레이션 세금으로 부채를 해결할 것이다. 핵심 주장: 이번 경기침체는 짧고 얕지 않고 심각할 것이다. 주식시장 붕괴, 채권시장 붕괴(금리 상승), 민간 대출금리 급등에 따른 신용시장 붕괴가 동시에 올 수 있다. 부채와 인플레이션세: 세금 인상·지출 삭감이 어려워 인플레이션세로 부채를 줄이려 할 것이다. 인플레이션은 명목 부채의 실질 가치를 낮추고 채권자·저축자의 부를 채무자에게 재분배한다. 이 조세는 의회가 아닌 중앙은행이 결정하며, 이는 사실상 채무 불이행의 한 형태다. 인플레이션 원인: 코로나 기간의 과도하고 장기적인 통화·재정·신용 완화와 잘못된 정책이 원인이다. 코로나에 따른 공급 충격, 러시아의 우크라이나 침공에 따른 원자재·에너지·식량 가격 급등, 중국의 제로코로나 정책에 따른 공급망 병목이 겹쳤다. 영국은 브렉시트로 잠재성장률이 약 2%에서 1.5%대로 낮아져 추가 악재가 되었다. 중기 구조 충격: 제조업 리쇼어링, 고령화, 이민 제한, 미중 디커플링, 기후변화, 팬데믹, 사이버전, 통화의 무기화, 소득·부 불평등 반발은 모두 잠재성장률을 낮추고 생산비용을 높이는 스태그플레이션 요인이다. 중앙은행 전망: 중앙은행은 인플레이션을 어떤 비용을 치러서라도 2%로 잡겠다고 하지만 신뢰도가 없어 결국 물러설 것이다. 금리를 올리면 경착륙과 심각한 침체가 오고, 결국 적자를 화폐화(monetize)하게 된다. 정치 경제 구조: 근본 위협(경제·통화·금융·정치·지정학·기술·환경·보건)은 서로 연결된 '느린 열차 사고'이며, 단기 고통을 감수하는 개혁을 정치인들이 꺼려 문제를 계속 미루고 있다. 출연자 전망 요약: 침체는 심각, 주식·채권·신용 동시 붕괴 가능, 중앙은행 항복 및 인플레이션세에 의한 부채 해소 예상. 종목·자산 언급: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없고, 채권(금리)과 주식시장 붕괴 가능성은 거시 전망으로만 언급되었다.
다듬은 글
is not going to be a short and shallow recession it's going to be severe one but then they have a crush on the stock market a crash of the bond market with interest that's going much higher a crash of credit markets with the interest rates on private loans Rising significantly and that economic and financial crisis is going to be so damaging and as I said if you cannot raise taxes cut spending you have to use the inflation tax in the UK and U.S and Europe we're borrowing our own local currency and if you had the bout of unexpected inflation inflation can reduce the real value of nominal debt at fixed interest rates of long duration but its attacks were taxing creditors and Savers to redistribute incoming wealth to those where borrowers and debtor and is that a tax that actually is not even decided by a parliament or by political government but is decided by the central banks so I do believe that actually even the rise of debts private and public we are in what the economists call a debt trap there's so much problem in public that there will be an incentive to try to wipe it out with a bout of unexpected inflation we don't want to raise taxes enough we don't want to cut spending enough so we're going to use the inflation tax to resolve this problem is a form of default however it's a capital levy on Savers and creditors and alls who hold public and private debt increases of inflation we've had in advanced economies like the UK Europe and us is driven in part by what people refer to as being bad policies lose monetary fiscal and credit easing during the covet crisis too much for too long but then we're also had a series of negative aggregate supply shocks that reduce growth and increase the cost of production the first one was the impact of kovid on production of goods and services on the supply of labor and on Global Supply chains the second one was the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on commodity prices oil natural gas food fertilizer Industrial Metals and three the zero covet policy of China has led to further Global Supply bottlenecks physical combination of bad policy and bad luck in the case of the UK there was also self-inflicted wound because the decision of brexit reduces potential growth from about two percent to maybe one and a half it increases the cost of production you have less migration you have frictions in international trade and therefore it's also a stuck flationary process so on the supply side we have these shocks but over the medium term there are other shocks that are medium term stagflationary the globalization reassuring of manufacturing dry Coast countries for ensuring agingal population restriction to migration decoupling between U.S and China global climate change pandemic cyber warfare weaponizing our currencies as a tools of national and foreign policy a backlash against income and wealth inequality these are all factors that are more medium term they're all stagflationary they reduce potential growth they increase the cost of production on the supply side on the demand side central banks are saying we're going to fight inflation at any cost and we're going to go back to two percent primaverio they're not credible they're going to Blink they're going to wimp out because if they try to raise interest rates to fight inflation not only they cause a hard Landing a recession and it's not going to be short and shallow recession it's going to be severe one but then they have a crush on the stock market a crash of the bond Market of interest is going much higher a crash of credit markets with the interest rates on private loans Rising significantly and that economic and financial crisis is going to be so damaging they're going to Blink they're going to monetize the deficits and as I said if you cannot raise taxes cut spending you have to use the inflation tax I usually say I'm not Dr Doom I'm not a realist but of course is not as catchy to be called doctor realist there are some upside down some downside unfortunately I feel that for the last 20 years of being kicking the can down the road we're putting our head heads under the sun like ostriches with and we're not addressing the fundamental threats economic monetary Financial political geopolitical technological environmental health there are major threats that are all connected with each other and says slow motion train wreck there is no free lunch for any problem you have to incur short-term costs to improve these threats over the medium long term and the political economy of reforms and of pain is that very few people are willing as governments and countries and politicians to accept the short-term pain for the long-term benefit because those politicians are not going to be in power so there is a bias about kicking the can down the road
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