저자: BillMiller · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 글로벌 자본시장 대비 시가총액이 1% 미만으로 장기적으로 상승 여력이 크다고 주장. 패밀리오피스의 비트코인 배분은 교육과 ETF를 통해 확산 중이며, 변동성이 줄어드는 추세지만 그만큼 수익도 줄어든다고 언급. 자가보관보다는 ETF 등 중앙화된 수단도 실용적 채택 경로로 인정.
다듬은 글
right and so there's just so much Capital out there in the world people compare it to digital gold I think that's baked in the cake from my perspective over a longer time Horizon um I think it's much higher than that you know it's it's people are thinking about it wrong it's the global market for capital is a quadrillion dollars right and right now we're at less than 1% right at a 1.3 trillion market cap of the world's addressable market for Capital uh whenever else is denominated in uh government currencies that over a very long period of time if you run the clock long enough they have a perfect track record of failure right and you look at the actual underlying protocol of Bitcoin and it just seems inevitable that it's going to keep going up what do you think um what do you think the family office Community what would be a catalyst for adoption to go quicker into that world the ETFs I think we're potentially super constructive in that but where where are Folks at Family offices getting their guidance who are they turning to and what things potentially could the Bitcoin Community do to help accelerate that adoption I think it all comes down to education when you have something so new as crypto as a whole right I mean it's it's a new thing it's people don't know how to think about it um so it comes down to education if you just look at the way that a lot of family offices allocate money they care about you know volatil risk adjusted returns where risk is volatility and if you just look at the data on it historically there's a 15-year track record now of Bitcoin operating and trading and if you add Bitcoin to a portfolio at pretty much any percentage it improves all of these statistics that these family offices care about massively so just getting that word out there showing them teaching people what it's about I mean the worst 4-year irr uh that's just annualized rate of return on bitcoin if you cherry pick the worst point for it ever over four years you made 20% a year annualized there's nothing else out there like that so it just getting letting people learn about that I don't think it'll be I think the the worst for your irr moving forward will probably be lower because guess what volatility on bitcoin's coming down over time it will continue to come down and but once there's no more volatility left around Bitcoin there will be no returns left either yeah you can't get the you can't get the upside without volatility either exactly right so it's just a matter of Education I think what are you seeing in terms of uh interacting with family offic yeah so usually when I deal with family offices which are the majority of my clientele it starts with like uh The Matriarch or patriarch giving me a call and it's usually some version of my child or my grandchild has been talking about this and now it's made its way into the media that they respect whether it's a CNBC or Wall Street Journal thing or presidential candidate and so then they start taking the first steps um you know to come check it out and want to you know hear more about it and that seems to transition pretty quickly as long as Bitcoin tends to perform well they start with a small token allocation maybe out of Faith or respect for their child or grandchild right like well my kid thinks this is you know the ne digital gold all right I'll throw a couple bucks in it and then they you know then as the momentum grows they come back and they say so what if we wanted to add to that position you know and that's kind of uh that's how the positions grow so it's it's been quite a progression and now um I'm getting a lot less of those calls and it's more their friends at other family offices have an allocation and Word of Mouth that way um what I think is a really interesting kind of you know thing that a lot of family officers I talk to are wrestling with is the ETFs changed everything right and so there's a decision and a difference in knowledge base of whether or not you want to hold Bitcoin and be able to take possession of your Bitcoin or just kind of the financial aspect of Bitcoin wrapped in an ETF um is enough so be curious your thoughts on the role of the ETFs and and how you see that as well yes so I personally have a variety of uh custodial Solutions um but I think you have to be pragmatic about it as a bitcoiner if you're a true bitcoiner you realize the more people that own and have access to Bitcoin the better uh is it ideal that it's in a centralized rapper absolutely not but you have to meet people where they are and how they operate right and and that's how you get adoption and maybe once they then buy the ETF learn more about it say Wow this thing has gone up a lot I should potentially think about owning it in other ways and then maybe they take an in-kind Redemption from the ETF maybe one day uh or they decide to self- custody themselves and so it's just a matter of time I think um like I said the world's a competitive place and when people see these other companies that are coming out with Bitcoin treasury strategies outperform they're going to want to start financing that they're going to want to start buying those types of things so it's just it is inevitable I think U yeah I agree I think the
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