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Just yesterday, Tom Lee, the chief strategist of Wall Street's most famous bull camp, made a very bold statement in front of the CNBC cameras. He said that the S&P 500 could see a violent rebound to 7,800 points in August, reaching a new all-time high. Note that this isn't a moderate rebound or a stabilization—it's a violent rebound, and it's happening this month!
Furthermore, he delivered an even sharper blow, predicting that the S&P 500 will close above 8,000 points by the end of this year, and that 2027 might be one of the best years for the stock market you’ve ever seen. Let's take a look together. You know, I think August is a month to recover what, how June and July have been sort of flat months, but earnings have, earnings assessments have gone up a lot.
So, the stock market is kind of a coiled spring and then we had a huge deleveraging, as you're talking about, because of the AI unwind and Korea's policymakers panicking. So, I think the markets could actually rebound strongly this month. Like maybe we get to 7800 this month. 7800. Yeah, for the S&P.
Is that forecast for the 10%draw still in? So you take that off the table? Just, will you do it for me? Does it have, no, kids? So we get the 7800, maybe a 10% right, then close the year above 8000. Yes, yeah, I think because as we start to look at 2027, there's a lot of the clouds that are heading this year, kind of lift.
You know, the SpaceX unlock will be behind us, and the market testing, and of 2027. Could you think of this is cooler inflation data? Why, why oil is back up? Yeah, oil's up, and you know we still have the tariffs working through, so those are hitting the CPI numbers. But the real driver of inflation, historically, declining prices, taking one biggest inflation and wage inflation, is really...Medyo ask you what you think of the Leopold situation and the idea that he was highly leveraged, four times, had with his stuff?
How much of that played into what you were talking about with South Korea and the panic that happened there ? How much of that was because he was selling that portfolio at the same time ? I think it was a big factor because as you know, Korea is basically two two companies, Samsung and so it's memory and semis.
And he of course had a very large following. So not only was his leverage on his 5 billion, let's say it was levered to 50 billion, but there was a lot of money piggybacking on. Let's first talk about what exactly happened in South Korea, as this is key to understanding Tom Lee's logic. What was the state of the Korean stock market in the first half of 2026?
A raging bull, arguably one of the most furious bull markets globally. What was driving it? AI. South Korea's two giants, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—one a storage leader, the other an HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) player —were both fundamental beneficiaries of AI. The KOSPI index in South Korea soared throughout the first half of the year, at one point becoming the world's best-performing major market.
Retail investors piled in with borrowed money and leverage, driving the semiconductor sector to the moon. Samsung and SK Hynix alone accounted for more than half of the entire KOSPI market cap; the country's entire stock market was essentially pinned on these two chip companies. Then, in July, the storm of deleveraging hit Seoul.
Samsung and SK Hynix plummeted from their June highs, crashing by 41%and 52%respectively— effectively cut in half in just one month. The entire South Korean stock market saw $ 1.2 trillion in market value evaporate. The Korea Exchange even briefly suspended programmed trading as the market plunged more than 6.5%during the session.
The Bank of Korea and regulators panicked, holding emergency meetings and issuing urgent statements. Korean retail investors are among the most highly leveraged in the world, so this kind of crash caused the entire country's wealth effect to evaporate instantly. But please note, there is a key turning point here.
Just last Thursday, July 31st, the KOSPI surged 14%in a single day, and Samsung Electronics soared, marking its largest single-day gain in history. Why was that? As this fund's liquidation was finalized, forced selling pressures were met with short covering and bargain-hunting capital, leading the market to stage a revenge rally.
First liquidations, then a stampede, followed by bottoming out and finally a violent rebound; the logic here is identical to Tom Lee's assessment of the US stock market in August. The more brutal the deleveraging process, the tighter the spring of the rebound is coiled. Now, let's walk through Tom Lee's complete script; it's definitely not as simple as just "going up"—it happens in three steps.
The first step is a rebound to 7,800 points in August. Today is August 4th, and the S&P 500 is near 7,600 points. What does 7,800 points mean? It means that starting from today, it needs to rise another 2.6%or so, breaking directly through the all-time high of 7,620 points set on June 2nd to reach a new record.
He says the market is currently a compressed spring: two months of sideways trading in June and July, while corporate earnings expectations were significantly raised. Fundamentals are improving, but stock prices haven't risen; when you add the hole carved out by deleveraging, the tighter the spring is pressed, the fiercer the bounce back .
The second step: another 10%pullback in September or October. You heard that right—he predicts there will be another deep 10%correction. He stuck to this forecast in his interview, and when the host asked him to remove it, he laughed and refused. So don't think he's just a mindless bull; his script is: rise first, then fall, then rise again.
Then the third step: ending the year above 8,000 points. Falling 10% from 7,800 to just over 7,000, then rising from that level back to over 8,000. Tom Lee says 2027 is the real main event; I will elaborate on this, but all of this year's dark clouds will have dispersed by 2027. Let's evaluate this script: a violent rebound to give you a nod, then a heavy blow, and finally, a new high to end the year.
If you chase the market at the highs, that 10%pullback will be enough to cause you some serious trouble. Therefore, this script is actually teaching you how to trade this August rebound: don't chase the highs, wait for the pullback before getting on board. But anyone can say the word "rebound"—the key is, on what basis?
Tom Lee provided three hard pieces of logic: first, earnings are surging while stock prices haven't kept pace—this is what he calls the compressed spring. Let the data speak: the S&P 500's earnings growth forecast for the second quarter had already reached 23.2%by the end of June, whereas it was only in the single digits during the same period last year .
The growth forecast for the tech sector has even exceeded 65%. The full-year 2026 earnings growth forecast has been revised upward from around 12% at the start of the year to nearly 28%, which is almost double the initial expectation. Meanwhile, stock prices have basically treaded water for the past two months; with earnings up 28% and prices moving sideways, just imagine how tightly that spring is coiled.
The two biggest pillars of inflation are truly beginning to loosen . This was the most informative part of Tom Lee's interview, and it's something most independent media outlets have completely failed to explain clearly. He says don't just fixate on oil prices or tariffs; those are all just noise. Historically, the two things that have truly driven U.S.
inflation are housing and wages. Regarding housing, U.S. home prices have fallen month-over-month for three consecutive months, and the May year-over-year decline in prices was the largest since 2017. Does everyone know what the weighting of housing in the CPI is? It's 30%, and it's also the most stubborn and difficult component to bring down.
Once it truly begins to cool off, the entire knot of inflation will loosen. As for wages, he assesses that wage inflation is looking extremely weak. This Friday, August 7th , the U.S. will release the July non-farm payroll report, which will serve as a verification. The June CPI data has already provided a signal; the June CPI fell by 0.4%month-over-month, and year-over-year it dropped from 4.2% to 3.5%.
This is the first decline in five months, and it came in lower than all economists 'forecasts. If you connect these three points—lower home prices, weak wages, and the surprise cooling of the CPI—what does it mean? It means that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is soaring.
Historically, the few months before a rate-cutting cycle begins are precisely the best window for U.S. stock market performance. Third, the "landmine" of the SX unlock won't go off until 2027, and many people simply didn't understand what Tom was talking about. He said the SX lock-up period will end in 2027; what does this actually mean?
SPSX went public on June 12th of this year at $ 135 per share, with a valuation reaching the $ 2 trillion level, making it one of the largest IPOs in history. Its IPO lock-up period won't be fully lifted until mid-2027, and Elon Musk's 46%stake will have to wait even longer. So, what is a lock-up period?
It means that after a company goes public, insiders are prohibited from selling their shares for a certain period of time. Once unlocked, a massive wave of selling will hit the market, which is a sword of Damocles hanging over SpaceX and the entire market. TLE means this sword won't truly fall until 2027, so before it falls, there is actually a " pre-blast" window between the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027 .
Finally, let's break down his boldest statement: 2027 could be one of the best years in a lifetime. This is the most profound yet easily overlooked remark in the entire interview. It's not just a slogan; there are three specific logics behind it, and his original words only mentioned a part of them.
The first cloud to disperse is the end of AI deleveraging. With the AI bubble bursting in 2026 and hedge funds liquidating leveraged positions, by 2027, the "bombs" that needed to go off will have detonated, leaving a cleaner ownership structure for the AI industry . Throughout history, after every tech bubble burst—like the dot-com bubble in 2000 or the 2008 financial crisis— truly great companies have emerged in the aftermath.
A market that has finished purging leverage is often the healthiest market. The second cloud to disperse is the new Federal Reserve completing its stress test. An important background detail here is that in May 2026, the Fed will have a leadership change, with a new chair taking office. The market will nervously parse every policy statement from the new Fed, wondering if they are hawkish or dovish, and if they might mess things up.
This kind of policy uncertainty is a major factor suppressing risk appetite this year. Muly’s point is that by 2027, the new Fed’s style will have been fully understood by the market; the trial period will be over, and the uncertainty will have dissipated. When the greatest uncertainty turns into certainty, capital will finally feel comfortable enough to enter the market.
The third cloud to disperse is the realization of the SpaceX unlock. As mentioned earlier, after mid-2027, the market's biggest IPO selling pressure will be completely removed. By then, everyone will realize it was just a " boy who cried wolf" scenario, and the index will have long since gotten used to it.
Looking at these three points together: leverage is cleared, policy is clear, and selling pressure is gone. In 2027, what could possibly stop the U.S. stock market? So, he said this might be the best year of our lives. Finally, let's condense the core of this video into three sentences. The first sentence is: the plunge over the past month was a mechanical reaction to forced liquidations, not a collapse of fundamentals.
Earnings are rising, inflation is falling, the mines have been detonated, and the root of the panic is disappearing. The second sentence is Tom Lee's three-act script. August sees a violent rebound to new highs, followed by a 10%pullback at the end of the year, closing above 8,000. Don't chase the rebound highs; wait for the pullback to position yourself.
The third sentence is that the three " landmines" of 2027—leverage, the Fed, and recession—will all become things of the past. Once all the bad elements are cleared, the best year will arrive. However, when they say "best year," they mean a cycle, not a market where you can close your eyes and make money.
The lesson of 2026 is right before our eyes: even a genius fund with 4x leverage can still be wiped out overnight. For the average person, the best strategy is always position sizing , discipline, and patience, rather than chasing any single prediction. .
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