Market trend remains intact despite government shutdown, says Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel

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시장 추세는 여전히 유효하며 정부 셧다운은 주가 흐름을 크게 훼손하지 않을 것으로 봄. 셧다운이 10일~2주 내외로 끝날 것이라는 베팅마켓 기대를 언급하며, 장기화 시 심리에 부담이 될 수 있다고 함. 4분기에는 연말 소비 시기에 관세 인상 영향이 본격화될 수 있으나 일회성 물가 상승으로 보고 연준이 긴축을 지연하지 말아야 한다고 주장. 설비투자·AI 투자에 따른 실적이 소비 둔화를 상쇄할 것이며 경기침체까지는 아니라고 봄. 연준은 10월 29일 25bp 인하 후 12월 한 차례 더 인하할 가능성이 높다고 전망. 정부 데이터 공백 속에서도 민간 데이터 확대와 실적·금리가 증시를 움직이므로 시장은 지속 가능하다고 봄.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Well, joining me now is Wharton School Professor of Finance and Wisdom Tree Chief Economist Jeremy Seagull. Jeremy, it's great to have you on the show. Welcome. Good to see you, Morgan. So, where do we go from here with stocks? Well, as I've been saying a long for a long time, make the trend your friend.

02. It's the trend is on. Um, you know, but Mike Santo is right. It's been a it's been a long time since we've had any reaction. But at this point, I don't see anything immediately that is uh derailing uh the trend that that we're seeing and not even the government shutdown. Uh uh it seems like the betting markets thinks it could go anywhere from 10 days to two weeks.

03. I think anything longer than that could really weigh on sentiment. We did get a little nick on consumer sentiment in in the last uh uh confidence level reading. Um what I'm really looking for this quarter, I mean certainly we're going to get earnings for for the third quarter. I'm looking for any reaction to tariff hikes that I think are going to be more prominent in the fourth quarter uh than we've seen all this year.

04. uh as Christmas and retail uh spending come on, is there really going to be resistance at at the low end? And you know, we might not see that for a couple weeks, but I think that that's really going to be the big story uh here in the fourth quarter. However, with that ADP report, it still looks to me I'm still saying the Fed on October 29th, it's probably going to go down another 25 basis points and one final cut uh in December.

05. Okay. Um I guess given the idea that maybe coming into the fourth quarter you start to see more impact from tariffs. Uh is it transitory because that's just as important when you talk about the Fed's next moves, right? Yeah. I mean listen what I've been saying all along it's it's like a tax uh that that is put on all imported goods.

06. We will have a bump in prices. It's a one-time bump. And I've always recommended that the Fed look through that and not tighten or delay in loosening credit uh as a re result of that. Um and it will give some shock to a downward on consumption. However, nothing that you know approaches what I think is a recession.

07. Um, and with everything else positive going on in terms of capital spending, AI spending and all the rest, I mean that that's just producing the earnings that is more than offsetting what slowdown there could be in the consumer in the fourth quarter. Amid the government shutdown, you do have this data desert, if you will, at least in terms of the the federally generated data around things like jobs report and jobless claims.

08. Um, but we were having this conversation with Steve Leeman here yesterday on the show and this this idea that maybe this is an opportunity for economists and investors and analysts to get off the data dependent hamster wheel uh and sort of pull in more inputs uh in terms of their analysis. How do you see it?

09. Well, and I heard Steve say that and and I think there's a lot of truth to that. I mean, we we get so hooked on on each of these reports. We see all the errors in this report. Listen, here's a real case for the private sector to step up and we do have private sector sources. I mean, you know, we had ADP and and that definitely influenced the bond uh market uh you know, a couple days ago.

10. So, we we we we do have private sources. I would like to see a lot more private sources so we don't only have to rely on the on the government uh for their statistics. So, I think you're going to see a boom in private source uh data as a result of of this slowdown. I think uh I think that's good. Uh and remember uh you know, stocks depend on earnings.

11. There's going to be no hesitation on earnings reports that are coming out. No slowdown there. Uh and interest rates. And you know, the bond market reacts an awful lot more than just uh you know what those reports are coming out. There's a lot of flows of credit on and off. And so interest rates and earnings that's what makes for the stock market.

12. Our markets can still continue without so much uh reliance on uh the government data. Mhm.