저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 비트코인 현물 ETF가 가격 상승을 가져올 수 있다고 보지만, 비트코인은 결제 수단으로서 가치가 낮고 불법 거래에 주로 쓰여 장기적으로 제도권에 편입되기 어렵다고 본다. [Jamie Dimon 발언 소개] 제이미 다이먼(JP모건 CEO)은 의회에서 암호화폐가 테러·마약·탈세에 쓰인다며 정부가 암호화폐를 폐쇄해야 한다고 주장했다. 진행자는 다이먼의 강경 발언에 부분적으로 동의하면서도, 비트코인 ETF 승인이 임박했다는 점에서 단기 수익 기회는 있다고 본다. [비트코인 평가] 비트코인은 초당 수 건 수준의 처리 능력으로 비자(초당 약 6만 5천 건)와 비교가 안 되는 결제 시스템이다. 진행자는 비트코인이 상업적 결제 수단이나 인플레이션 헤지로 기능하지 않는다고 주장한다. [ETF 및 펌프앤덤프 관점] 블랙록 등 대형 운용사의 ETF는 수수료 수익을 위한 상품일 뿐 비트코인 이념에 동의한다는 뜻은 아니라고 본다. 미국 정부 약 20만 5천 BTC, 블랙록 약 11만 3천 BTC, 우크라이나 약 4만 1천 BTC 보유를 언급하며 대형 보유자들의 물량 처분 구조를 지적한다. 진행자는 ETF 출시 후 리테일 투자자에게 물량이 넘어가는 펌프앤덤프 구조가 나타날 수 있다고 경고한다. [전망] 진행자는 ETF 출시 직후 비트코인이 두 배가 될 수 있다고 언급하며 2024년이 중요한 해라고 본다. 다만 2024년 동안 누가 어떤 속도로 빠져나가는지를 보고 이것이 마지막 펌프앤덤프인지 판단하겠다고 한다. [자산별 가격 방향] 비트코인: 단기 상승 가능성(ETF 출시 직후 두 배 가능 언급), 기간은 2024년 중심. 다만 장기적으로 결제·인플레이션 헤지 수단으로서 가치는 낮다고 봄. 블랙록: 비트코인 ETF 운용사로 언급되나 가격 방향 직접 예측 없음.
다듬은 글
good morning everyone we're doing a reaction video in regard to bitcoin uh it's specifically Jamie Diamond uh today in front of Congress uh talk about new banking restrictions law but he also talks a little bit about crypto and Bitcoin and this is really centered around the idea of the you know us-based spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund which uh seems to be quite imminent uh specifically Black Rock because a lot of people are looking to this uh and point to a number of uh you know reasons why this is going to Surge the market even further and and let's be clear uh Bitcoin has done incredibly well it has bounced back it has done you know exceptionally well as far as pricing in the market uh and we're going to be a bit controversial here because yes the price has gone up overall my question is does the Bitcoin by Black Rock the Bitcoin trust ETF is it the final dump of the pump and dump in this space or does it give it the credibility that everyone has been wanting and wishing for uh and where where do we where does it stand uh and this is Bond the backrop of what a pump and dump is which is right on our website uh and if you've been awake for the last year you've seen all the crypto fraud and pump and dumps without uh fail the the total annihilation in that uh in that realm but that also saying that doesn't mean there isn't a place for these things and this is a very complicated conversation uh it's very nuanced and we're going to address why you know there's some pluses and Ne negatives here and then engage further for our subscribers uh uh behind the pay wall and and talk more about where we see things going so let's just jump right into the conversation here today's terrorists have a new way to get around the bank secrecy act cryptocurrency last year an estimated $20 billion in illicit crypto transactions funded every kind of dangerous criminal okay I'm going to pause here now not because what she's saying is important and I can't believe I'm saying this I'm actually on board with uh Senator Elizabeth Warren and uh that is an exceptionally rare uh admission by my by by me to to say that I'm on board with what she's saying but uh in truth right now the best case for what uh crypto and and Bitcoin has been successful at doing uh is is for illicit activity so evading tax um drug deals kidnappings uh really excellent at ransomware uh so it's all these things and I know it's going to be annoy a lot of people because there's a lot of people that love uh Bitcoin for its ideology and what it proposes to do which is also why I know it won't ever uh be what people hope it will be uh and this is this is important there's a bank secrecy act they've spent at least two decades working on fraud on the flow of fund and they're not just going to allow there to be some open backend for every person to just use to get around moving money around uh it doesn't matter if it's uh fast slow or not uh never mind the fact that Bitcoin is dead slow uh bit Bitcoin is not a payment system uh it was now designed to be one and it would be one of the worst it does a couple transactions a second to be able to process somewhere between three to seven transactions per second across the entire world that's it it's not many compared to 65,000 transactions a second at Visa that's just Visa never mind any other credit card company Investment Bank regular Commercial Bank so once again I'm back and forth on this one because people are going to be annoyed uh I I I have very mixed feelings about that whole Space uh that it does have quote unquote value um but uh this ETF trust you know will will it bring credibility uh to the market let's get let's wait to get into that uh but let's just deal with the the obvious truth that the best case scenario that we've seen in regards to using uh Bitcoin and cryptos has been for illicit activities and don't take my word for it you know you can go look up Dr Nicholas Weaver he's got a ba in astrophysics and computer science and a PhD in computer science from UC Berkeley he was a lecturer at Berkeley and one at UC Davis uh uh he speaks quite uh explicitly about this because he understands finances well uh that it's it really has been uh a you know a a sense of you know moneya laundering essentially that's the best purpose case that it has and he breaks it down quite well uh there's a great link that we'll provide for those that wish to challenge uh some of the the positions I'm going to take in regards to the computer science I'm not a computer scientist so I I I have no uh reasonable information to give other than looking at someone like that uh and and also why you don't see a lot of computer scientists on board with this uh you know there's a lot of critical uh you know reasoning around what this actually does and what it proposes to do uh I've never seen a product that's been around for 10 years uh that hasn't actually achieved any of the things that it says it's going to do yet has this incredible value and once again over the backdrop of whether it's an asset it's it's money it's this it's that um to for the US government to allow a product that can skirt around uh tax uh you know know your client any of these things that someone can anonymously send money uh which is also not entirely true uh is actually incredible uh and perhaps that's just a you know a state of the times the chaos that we live in anyways let's get back to this it's missile program including nuclear weapons using the the proceeds of crypto crime and Israeli officials have confirmed that Hamas received millions of dollars through crypto transactions including quote large sums from Iran Mr Diamond you've been CEO of JP Morgan for almost two decades can you explain why crypto is such an attractive Financial tool for terrorists drug traffickers and Rogue Nations I've always been deeply opposed to crypto Bitcoin Etc you pointed out the only true use case for it is criminals drug traffickers anti-money Laing tax avoidance and that is a use case uh because it is somewhat Anonymous not fully and because you can move money instantaneously and because it doesn't go through as you mentioned all these systems have built up over many years know your customer sanctions ofac it's they can get bypass all of that I if I was the governments I'd close it down okay so there we go let's let's pause there that's pretty extreme wor from Jamie diaman and of course on the the the anarcho capitalist side people say oh it's old school money people they just want to control everything yeah they're going to uh make no mistake the this idealistic uh dream of having uh some Equity or Equitable currency it's it won't happen uh part of that is you don't have an army I mean it sounds ridiculous but at the end of the day what keeps the US dollar as King right now uh is this now this might seem over the top because it used to be that it was the assets within the country that kind of backed you know taxes and whatnot the uh the currency but not anymore it really is might is is right and you have to enforce your trade your your capital structure and and whatnot that Bitcoin has performed uh has an annual compounded growth rate of 196% and you use that to extrapolate its future performance you have said it time and time again I will actually tweet your words right back at you after this is done because that is absolutely not true um I think your idealistic view of the world is really just so Off the Mark we live in a very we live in a world which where the world or is fragmented and it's getting worse and worse you're not going to get this Global cooperation to get behind Bitcoin and with all of the energy assumptions that you're making it's just not going to happen that's not the real world we're living in and uh so the the as much as I appreciate the ideology of being able to have control over your funds that there wouldn't be the type of inflation that we see today there still be inflation I mean the having of of Bitcoin and cryptos the just simply forking and making a new Bitcoin is just inflation of a different kind uh as far as I can see uh so you know I go back and forth at the end of the day can you make money yeah I I think there's an opportunity here that you can make money when this ETF comes out because it's going to you know offer up solutions to Pension funds to all these other people that might want just put 2% of their assets into this just to to to have a holding in this new asset class uh even if it was .5% and that's that adds up quite a bit uh and that helps the market to see oh my gosh black Rock's involved that that really means they're behind you know for this they they really you know you know agree with this ideology it absolutely does not mean that they believe in any of the the the Notions that the people that uh promote Bitcoin and crypto not at all they just simply mean that they'll get a fee for managing a product that will mirror the price of Bitcoin uh that's it uh it doesn't mean that they believe in it that they think it's going to be this that or anything else uh we know it is a terrible payment system uh it it it you know once everyone goes back to what is the price of it to US dollar uh and what I see it as being is being excellent as being some sort of uh Benchmark an ETF uh where you're saying what's our energy consumption and future look like compar compared to our computer science and technology that that has value that we have a metric of some kind that shows are we on Pace with some of our Global uh energy initiatives with the pace at which uh you know Quantum Computing and computing power is accelerating beyond that there is not really any value uh it isn't a hedge against inflation um it doesn't act that way anyway it's going up yes uh the people that hold it have been holding it um can I can you make money in it I think so yeah probably more than likely uh but my question though is and you I'd love to hear your feedback is in every pump and dump usually what happens is you have to get the retail buyers to Jump On In at a mass level in order to finally dump all these holding positions you know are True Believers but there's also a ton the US government owns a ton of Bitcoin Rock owns a ton of Bitcoin right now and in fact just to give you an idea so yes the US has roughly 205,000 and Counting Bitcoin Black Rock has about 113,000 possibly more I haven't looked to date but quite a bit uh Ukraine has 41,000 Bitcoin so you aren't being you're not going to sell you can't sell large you know blocks of Bitcoin it doesn't happen uh it can't happen it wouldn't even be able to to to be able to happen would this give the flow of people to finally say great we've run this thing up we're going to get an ETF you know in the course of the next year and we can exit our position and sell out these massive positions that we have um I don't know that's usually how a pump and dump works it it gets to the highest level and you need to then disperse it out to the retail public uh and spread that risk around as much as possible 1% across bunch of Pension funds and a bunch of insurance companies and a bunch of you know offshore funds and then an unknown population uh would be a great way for those that have big positions you know billions and billions of dollars in this to be able to exit happily uh and await the new fedcoin that uh the US is testing out uh I think which is also undoubtedly going to happen so is Jamie Damian correct yeah in some way yes is there a way to make money with this yeah I think there is as well but once again just cuz you can make money at something doesn't mean there's any value now join me into the conversation about the ideology of of Bitcoin and why I I think as much as I like it and I wish that we could have something like that uh the nature of finance and reality and politics means that never can happen uh it never will they didn't spend all this time uh creating banking secrecy laws and flows of money in order to just have a product come along and usurp it completely uh it doesn't make any sense and it won't it won't happen plus you need to have uh these uh High Finance people the ability to structure products in such a way in order to inflate or to you know exponentially grow economies elsewise you're going to have an incredible slowdown uh which would not be beneficial to anybody but once again let me just finish off by saying there is some value in these things uh not most of the crypto most of the crypto is you know has been Prov proven to be garbage but there there are case scenarios you know the smart contract is very interesting there is great ways to use this with with gaming and whatnot with tokenization of some things uh and especially as we enter into more this uh virtual AR world where we're more engrossed uh with the Internet of Things there are some case uses but I see them as being more as an academic uh you know kind of experiment being run while those that are creating CBDs are watching to see what the best way to roll out a currency that will literally take its place and although I think Bitcoin will always survive and have a place like as a milestone or as an ETF uh metric of some kind uh some sort of uh you know barometer of how energy SL to uh to computer power is going uh I I don't see it it doesn't function uh as a payment system uh it isn't money um and you know there I think I've probably sat on the fence enough to annoy both sides equally and I'd love to hear your your point of view and your opinion because I've touched on way too many things at this uh and although I don't have the strong opinion as Jamie Diamond that you should ban them I don't believe that I think there always will be some sort of back door because even the US government needs that in order to move money around as well now I'll get in real trouble uh governments need to be able to move money uh without the public being able to truly uh you know look to see where they go we see that all the time uh you know in Canada and the US you know money goes missing uh with no explanation so if you uh have them uh in uh you know a CBD they will definitely be shown exactly where they are that can't happen so you know that might sound like a bit of a a gloom and doom approach to this but I do believe that uh it's been more of an education and an experiment and that experiment is coming to an end and there is an opportunity you know and all the people making money in the last year with Bitcoin will think that I'm insane uh it could it double yeah it could double as soon as this comes out 2024 could be a banner year and that's what we'll look for we'll to see who's exiting during 2024 at what pace and who's adopting that'll be the Telltale side to see is this the final pump and dump or not thanks so much
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