저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 에드 야데니는 실적 모멘텀을 근거로 S&P500 연말 목표치 8,250을 유지하며 증시 상승 여력이 여전히 크다고 본다. 시장 전망: 현재 상승은 연말 목표 8,250 대비 아직 6.5% 정도 남은 수준이며, 중동 리스크와 연준 우려에도 경제가 견조해 상승이 지속 가능하다고 주장한다. 실적 전망: 컨센서스 선행 이익(forward profit)이 사상 최고 수준이며, 연말까지 주당 400달러를 넘을 것으로 본다. 400 x 20배 = 약 8,000으로 목표치와 대체로 부합한다고 설명하고, 이익이 예상보다 좋고 밸류에이션 배수가 더 높아질 가능성도 언급한다. 기술주: 지난주 기술 섹터가 지쳐 보인다는 지적에 대해, 일요일 노트에서 정보기술 섹터가 할인 상태이며 반도체가 싸다고 강조했다. 정보기술 섹터의 밸류에이션 배수가 시장 전체와 비슷하며, 1999~2000년 닷컴 버블과 다르다고 주장한다. 기술 버블 우려는 일축했다. 밸류에이션: 밸류에이션 비율 하락은 이익 증가 때문이며, 투자자들이 실적에 불안을 느껴 이익을 실현했다가 다시 돌아오는 중이라고 해석한다. 섹터 배분: 연초부터 정보기술 비중 확대를 권고했고 금융·산업재·헬스케어 비중 확대도 권고했는데 모두 잘 작동했다고 평가한다. 리스크: 중동 긴장, 연준 정책에 대한 우려가 존재하나 실적 기반 상승이 이를 상쇄한다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
Many. Okay, Ed, tell me about this rally. What do you think about this ? Where is this market heading? It is moving upwards. I mean, my year-end forecast is 8,250, and suddenly that looks pretty restrained. This is only 6.5% of the distance. I think we have FEMO, which I've talked to you about before , and that's an incredible momentum in earnings.
That's really what it all comes down to. I mean, we have a lot of concerns in the Middle East, about the Fed, but the economy continues to perform great . It is sustainable, and we see it in the profits. Are you happy with where the earnings estimates are heading? That is, if this is the main thing for you, then this is also the main thing regarding the risks that exist.
Well, I follow the consensus analysts' earnings forecasts very closely because I think that's what the market is pricing in, their forecast for the rest of this year and next. And this is called forward profit, when you take the weighted average of this year and next year. It is at a record historical level.
I think it will reach over $400 per share by the end of the year, which will be the expectation for next year. I think 400 multiplied by 20 and you get 8000. Pretty reasonable estimates. I think the earnings will be a little better and the valuation multiple could be higher. So I feel pretty comfortable with that.
Yes. You said, I don't know, maybe last week, that the tech sector looked tired. Now he definitely looks cheerful again. No, actually on Sunday I posted a note about information technology being on sale. This may have been an old note , but clearly you have to be on the alert in this market . But I actually pointed out that semiconductors were cheap, and that the overall information technology sector was trading at the same multiple as the market as a whole.
And that's unusual because growth stocks typically trade much higher. And when you look at the S&P 500 and information technology, it's nothing like what we had in 1999 and 2000. So, suddenly all the talk about this being a tech bubble is dismissed. I mean, there was a note today from a gentleman from Citadel Securities who suggested , you know, that we ourselves got rid of the excess that was in the market.
Now we are ready to reboot. There is no end to the basics. It seems you agree with this . Certainly. I think it all depends on profits. The valuation ratio decreased because profits increased, and investors were nervous about these figures and did not want to overpay, so they booked a profit . Now they regret it and come back again.
Do you like the expansion story? Certainly. We have been recommending market share for the IT sector since the end of last year, and in my opinion, overall it has worked quite well. We advised increasing the share of financial, industrial and healthcare sectors , and it worked very well.
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