저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
금과 비트코인의 상관관계가 낮아(0.14) 비트코인이 금과 다른 움직임을 보이는 것을 설명. 비트코인은 디지털 금·기술·신자산 등 세 가지 측면에서 중요하며, 기관 투자자의 분산투자 수단으로 적합하다고 주장. 최근 급락 구간이 저점에 근접했을 가능성을 언급하며 ARK가 암호화폐 관련주를 분할 매수 중이라고 밝힘. 단, 약속은 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
So on this next chart, we're heading into crypto. Uh and we'll loop back to AI at the very end. Uh crypto here. I think the disconnect and this is also from big ideas. Uh is hey look at what the gold price has done in the last few years and look at what's happened to Bitcoin. Uh now this is a log chart.
So, um, you can see, uh, gold has had a massive move to the upside. Uh, this chart ends in at the end of 25. And of course, uh, I think last night we got down to roughly $60,000 in in Bitcoin. So, really cut in half since its peak in October. What is going on here? Isn't Bitcoin supposed to be digital gold?
If it's digital gold, why isn't it behaving like gold? Uh, and a couple of points to make here. If you do the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, their returns uh since 2019 and and I put this in uh my New Year's letter. You can see the matrix there if you'd like. Um the correlation has been 0.14.
Uh one is perfect correlation. Uh and here we are at 0.14 very low almost no correlation. Uh so that is very important to understand. Um what you can also see here though is gold tends to preede a big move in bit uh in Bitcoin. Uh you can see the circles there and we'd have a gigantic circle around what has happened recently.
Um and and so maybe that will happen again. Uh we actually think it will. I cannot tell you how many bare stories I've heard about Bitcoin uh in in the last few weeks uh last few months um and just go on to X and you'll find all kinds of reasons why you must sell Bitcoin and these are the the periods that are kind of interesting.
Uh we post our trading at the end of every day and you'll say you'll see that we had been nibbling at our our crypto exposed stocks. We didn't know how far this was going to go and maybe it's not over. Not promising that. But um uh there was so much negative sentiment that uh I I felt okay, you know, we need to leg in and lean into this if our research is correct.
uh that this um this Bitcoin is three revolutions in one. It's a global digital private very important rules-based even more important monetary system. Uh and that's a very big idea. Um the second revolution is it is a technology. It's a a new technology. It's uh it's really adding another layer I would say to the internet so that we have um native currencies native to the internet uh that will be able to handle uh agentic commerce uh and uh other other such agentic movements taking place out there.
Uh that's a very big idea and then uh and it won't be of course just Bitcoin it'll be ether importantly ether uh Salana maybe Hyperliquid we shall see um but what's interesting about this period is the big three have been identified uh and those are bitcoin ether and salana you know the worry historically has how many of these things are there going to be?
Is this going to be a very fragmented situation? Uh and we're learning uh we we're learning who the big winners are are going to be, who the big winners are. Uh and I think that's a very important. And then the third revolution is this is a new asset class. Bitcoin is leading the way. It is the mo most secure of all the crypto uh currencies out there backed by the largest computer network in the world.
Uh and so really an anchor to um an asset allocator looking to move into this new world. And why would an asset allocator do that? Well, if we're right and well, the it's a fact that at least over the last five years, the correlations have been uh the correlation has been as low as 0.14. Um the key to successful diversification um for asset allocators is um adding new assets with very low correlation to all of the other assets in the ecosystem.
Uh and uh this one qualifies. Uh why do they want that? It is because with that low correlation introducing it um risk adjusted returns go up over time. Uh and so I do think institutions are serious about this new asset class. They may have been reticent uh to move in because they were hearing about the fouryear cycle, the four-year cycle.
And lo and behold, and I'll I'll hats off to Chris Berniski, who uh has been uh very right in in calling for whether it's the four-year cycle or whatever uh just this downdraft. Um and so it's close to it's closing in on the low point that many uh technical analysts are suggesting um as the place where it should stop.
Uh these the these are very volatile moments uh at at at or near the bottom. Um but uh we usually do look back and say, "Wow, I wish I had caught that low, this V-shaped recovery." um uh has been quite significant. Not promising. Uh I want to make I want to make sure that there are no promises here.
Uh but it does seem like the stars are aligning. Uh, and um I guess I'll move on to the
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