How Fundstrat's Tom Lee views growth stocks as rates drift lower

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결론: 금리가 컨센서스보다 높게 움직일 것으로 보고 금리 민감 에피센터 종목을 반등 관점에서 본다는 입장이며, 확신도는 60%로 밝힘. 금리 판단 근거: 한 달 전 금리 상승 둔화(인플레이션 기대 하락, 성장 둔화) 전제로 금융주를 하향하고 FANG을 상향했으나, 7월 초 성장 우려(델타 변이, 도쿄올림픽 헤드라인)로 10년물이 1.25%까지 하락해 판단을 뒤집음. 금리 상승 근거: 10년물이 200일선에서 지지받은 점, 보복성 소비와 설비투자 수요에 따른 강한 GDP 성장, 연준의 지원 기조, 유동성 풍부. 단기 조건: 5년 브레이크이븐 인플레 기대는 안정화되었으나 반등 가능성이 있고, 델타 변이 우려가 수 주 내 해소되면 성장 기대가 상향되어 금리가 오를 것으로 봄. 주식 전망: 에피센터(금리 연동 종목) 폭발적 랠리 예상. 다만 유동성은 채권보다 주식으로 흐를 수 있음. 빅테크(FANG+): 금리가 아닌 실적 때문에 하반기에 좋은 성과를 낼 것으로 봄. S&P500이 연말 25% 상승 시 FANG 일부는 20% 상승 가능, 그래서 비중확대(오버웨이트) 유지. 애플이 신고가를 기록한 점과 추세 모멘텀을 강조. 리스크: 델타 변이에 따른 성장 리스크, 10년물 급락(1.25%)에 따른 시장 불안, 확신도 60%라는 점을 본인이 인정. 출연자 전망 정리: 미국채 10년물 금리 상승(방향 상승), 에피센터 랠리, FANG+ 하반기 강세 및 비중확대.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. green across the board on this final trading day of the week tom are you there yeah i'm here scott all right it's good to see you too when you were on with us a month ago you downgraded the financials you double upgraded the fang stocks it was a great call you're reversing it today why thanks um well uh central to that view a month ago was the idea that consensus was expecting rates to push too much too high in other words we thought actual rates would undershoot had to do with the idea that inflation expectations were coming down and gdp growth wasn't necessarily accelerating now we've i think had a growth scare that really peaked yesterday i think the headline might have been the tokyo olympics but that really pushed the tenure down to one two five and now we think the conditions are set for interest rates to shoot above consensus expectations in other words we think rates are drifting higher that's going to lift basically the entire epicenter complex which is moved in lockstep with interest rates okay so i hear you okay the problem i have with this call today tom is that you you yourself say your conviction is only 60 i'm wondering why make a call like that and go public with it if your conviction is only 60 percent uh yeah that's correct uh you know number one we can only be 100 sure in the rear view mirror so i can only be 100 sure a month from now but the reason we think sixty percent uh a really good change is number one the ten-year yield did bounce off the 200-day that was an important level to hold second we're pretty confident that there's a lot of pent-up demand revenge consumer spending in capex which means gdp growth will be strong and we know the fed's going to be supportive so the idea now that people think rates could undershoot makes us think you want to take to counter trade that and again 60 is i think adequate to make a reversal you're right it's a big change to be based on only 60 knowledge but you know i i didn't really want to wait any longer we wanted to we sent out as an intraday because we just felt that was the moment to send out the notice okay i understand better better to be early right in your in your mind i guess that's how you're thinking of it you just said that there's a lot of consumer demand you know what else there's a lot of tom there's a lot of liquidity right yes so why why why do you think rates are going to go up from here if they've come down so far from their peak uh yes scott that's a great question i think three things drive interest rate change you know one is growth expectations versus consensus and the second is inflation expectations versus consensus and the third is sort of what you call like interest rate vix you know the risk of future changes and i think that there has been a fall in the five-year break evens which is why inflation expectations come down but that's stabilized i actually think it could start to rise because again there is all that liquidity you're talking about and on the gdp side even though we've got the delta variant and people think that poses growth risk that's what i think is getting priced in now so i think once we're through the delta variant scare which could take several weeks growth expectations will actually be edging up and that should push rates higher so you're right i think there's a lot of liquidity but it may go more into equities because it has been really scary to watch the 10-year fall to 125.

02. i mean it's been you know it's been disturbing it it has i'm just i'm just wondering if you look at the let's just say the market action today specifically um you know i'm kind of hard-pressed to believe that this tech move that we've seen in the last few weeks is going to reverse itself anytime soon and all of a sudden go back into the epicenter names right once these big fang plus stocks have gotten a bid i mean the trend is your friend and there is momentum behind a lot of these names apple being the latest stock in that group to hit a new high which it just did today you know yourself once these things get going a bit it's hard to break that track correct i'm with you on that scott i i think fang is going to detach itself from interest rates meaning they're going to have a great second half not because rates are going to fall but because these are great companies that almost did nothing in the first half so we think if the s p ends the year up 25 and a lot of these fangs are up five six percent they could be up 20 in the second half that makes them an overweight that's why we still want to own fang even though we think there's an explosive rally in epicenter coming you