저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 AI 관련 대규모 풋 베팅(팔란티어 약 9.12억달러, 엔비디아 약 1.866억달러)과 Scion 펀드 청산을 소개하며, 순환금융·부채 구조, 엔비디아 선수금 대비 매출 격차, Oracle 부채 발행, 팔란티어 PER 148배 등을 근거로 AI 버블 위험을 경고한다. 반대로 엔비디아 주가 견조, 데이터센터 투자 지속 등 반론도 함께 제시하며 투자 조언이 아니라고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
Let's begin this analysis by getting straight to the point. Today we are going to unravel one of the most tense and intriguing financial mysteries of our time. Imagine for a moment a situation that frankly has a large part of the market walking on thin ice. We're going to analyze step by step a story of gigantic bets, alarm signals flashing red in the economy, and a name, a name that resonates with brutal force every time someone whispers the word crisis on Wall Street.
So let's get right into it. Let's look at the hard, cold, and concrete data that suggest that this entire artificial intelligence infrastructure revolution could be built on much more fragile foundations than they would have us believe. Section one, the return of Michael Burry. Those who closely follow financial history already know perfectly well who we are talking about.
The man who surgically identified the 2008 collapse. And well, he's sounded the alarm again. His track record carries undeniable weight. To put it in perspective, he bet massively against the mortgage market and generated stratospheric profits at the exact moment the global financial system was collapsing.
It's such an incredible feat that it literally inspired the movie The Big Short. So when this analyst detects a structural anomaly, the financial ecosystem instinctively stops and pays attention. And now, focusing directly on the technology sector, a historical pattern emerges that, honestly, is chilling.
Let's look at this timeline because there is a disturbing parallel. Back in 2008, Burry closed his original Scion Capital fund shortly after the crisis, right after having executed that legendary bet. Now, let's fast-forward to this scenario. In 2026, the market is in a state of total suspense following an identical move.
At the end of 2025, he closed his most recent fund, Scion Asset Management, right after making one of the most aggressive bets of his recent career. The closure of the fund is not a minor detail; it acts as a signature, a definitive seal that tells us that the cards are already on the table and there is no going back.
The market is simply waiting for the outcome. Section two, 1 billion against artificial intelligence. Let's treat this as evidence in an investigation, because through mandatory regulatory filings, the famous 13F forms to the SEC in the United States, the monstrous size of this maneuver has been unearthed.
These public documents reveal something fundamental. We are not talking about simple market caution or adjusting a portfolio. No, this is a massive frontal attack against the most euphoric sector of the current economy. And the crucial point is this exact figure, 1.1 billion dollars. That is the combined notional value of this bet against AI.
Let's pause to contemplate this number for a second, because it is vital. 1.1 billion is not a minor defensive position to cover risks, it is for all intents and purposes a declaration of financial war based on an exhaustive analysis. It represents an absolute, unshakeable conviction that current valuations are simply not anchored in economic reality, but in a totally unsustainable euphoria that will inevitably be corrected by force.
Now, breaking down how that capital is distributed is super revealing. Official documents show that Zion Asset Management acquired put options, which in financial jargon we know as puts, worth approximately $912 million , against none other than Palantir Technologies. And if that weren't enough, there are more sale options for $186.6 million targeting the undisputed giant and king of the sector, Nvidia.
In simple financial terms, buying put options basically means putting a lot of money on the table betting that the share price of these specific companies will suffer a dramatic drop. It is a calculated strategy that literally only generates profits if the value of these assets collapses. Section three, the danger of circular financing.
So, what exactly is the modus operandi behind this supposed bubble? In his warnings, Borry was categorical, comparing the current tricks to the excesses of 2008, saying they are obvious to anyone who takes the trouble to look closely. And here, precisely here, is where we find the key to this whole mystery, the concept of circular financing.
Understanding this is absolutely vital to understanding the structural risk we are talking about. Basically, it's an arrangement where a company's revenue is generated through extremely complex debt and leverage, all within a closed ecosystem. In other words, instead of coming from a genuine, organic demand from an end user who buys a product, the money just circulates.
According to Borry's thesis, an increasing portion of the impressive revenues of this technology sector is , in fact, being financed by these arrangements. It's like an optical illusion game; capital changes hands between related entities, artificially inflating sales figures, but—and this is the big problem—without a real consumer at the end of the chain paying for those services with fresh money.
The mechanism he denounces works like a very dark machine, mainly in three steps. First, they use so -called special purpose vehicles , which are entities created out of thin air specifically to isolate the risk and prevent it from affecting the main company. Second, they come in with off-balance sheet financing, a classic accounting technique designed to prevent huge mountains of debt from appearing in the financial reports we all read.
And third, captive insurers, which are subsidiaries created to provide insurance to the same parent company, which ended up hiding the true and gigantic level of leverage in the entire artificial intelligence ecosystem . In short, it is a masterful architecture designed to display record revenues on the surface, while underneath it hides a terribly fragile debt.
Section four, the figures behind the fear. Let's put theory aside for a moment, because this is where we run into hard evidence. Let's break down the exact metrics that expose these cracks in the foundations of the market. Pay close attention to this metric about Nvidia, because it's a spectacular example of early warning.
There is a monumental gap. On one hand, we have the company's supply commitments and advance payments, which reached the absurd figure of $145 billion. But on the other hand, if we look at the actual revenue, what actually came in during the first quarter, it was $82 billion . The difference between what is committed or promised for the future and what has actually been billed in the present is gigantic.
When the future growth of an industry depends so heavily on debt-backed payment promises, any small stumble in that chain can trigger a catastrophic domino effect . And the picture becomes even denser when looking at other pieces on the board. The Oracle case is another very heavy indicator. The company has plans for a colossal $40 billion debt issuance , intended entirely to finance $70 billion in capital expenditures.
Furthermore, the reports underline that they maintain no less than $638 billion in outstanding performance obligations. Added to this is the activity of corporations like Nevius Group, whose financial disclosures show such an intricate web of Nvidia warrants, convertible debt and lease obligations that it is dizzying.
All of this together points to one place: a brutal saturation of interconnected debt. If one falls, it pulls the others down. And then, of course, we have to talk about pure valuations. Everything crystallizes in this number, 148. Palantir reached a market price of 148 times its earnings of the last 12 months.
Let's think for a moment about what this means. A price-to-earnings ratio of this magnitude represents a valuation level that is extremely high under any historical metric you want to use. Basically, the market is pricing in a perfect, almost unattainable level of future growth . This leaves a margin of error equivalent to zero, absolutely zero.
A tiny error in your results and the fall can be vertical. To add some macroeconomic context, this divergence in construction data illustrates the overall imbalance very graphically. The construction of data centers, everything that powers AI, has accelerated furiously, completely ignoring the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes .
However, in the real world, private non- residential construction overall plummeted by 7.9% year-on-year. It's a giant red flag. While the traditional economy is clearly cooling down and slowing down, speculative fever continues to boil over in a single niche. To top off this euphoric outlook, consider that the semiconductor sector ETF, the SOXX, experienced a 74% rise this year, and very specific stocks like Micron literally soared, skyrocketing by 242%.
It is a fervor that reminds us, and in a rather dangerous way, of the technological bubbles of the past. Section 5, the other side of the debate. However, to be fair and get the full picture of this research, it is absolutely necessary to analyze how the market is really reacting to all this and what counterarguments exist to this catastrophic narrative.
The results we see to date show us a rather mixed picture. On one hand, the warning proved to be like a scalpel on certain fronts. Palantir's stock has fallen approximately 35% since the short position was made public, and some technical analyses even suggest that further drops of 40 to 60% could be coming.
In the case of Oracle, the fall was even more violent, losing more than 51% from its peak in the third quarter. But on the other side of the coin, Nvidia stood firm like a titanium rock. Real and tangible demand for its chips has kept the stock surprisingly resilient, leaving Burry's position tied at 0% for the time being.
This shows us very divided market reactions. Some pieces fell hard, others simply ignored the noise. And of course, the counterargument for those who are in total disagreement with this collapse theory is very solid. Highly respected economists interpret this fierce resilience in data center construction not as a smokescreen, but as tangible evidence that institutional capital has genuine long- term confidence.
There is a real expectation that the economic returns generated by AI will more than justify this very high initial capital cost. And this serves as a golden reminder in finance. Even the brightest minds in the world, with the most perfect track records, can make serious mistakes at the exact moment.
Predicting the timing of a bubble is almost impossible. Sometimes being right too soon is exactly the same as being wrong. Section 6. Verdict for retail investors. So, what do we do with all this? History shows us that detecting a bubble is possible, yes, but betting against the force of an irrational market is a very high- risk game.
The most valuable conclusion we can draw from all this analysis is not to panic and liquidate positions, nor to act with reckless ignorance assuming that nothing can fall. True learning is understanding the mechanics behind risk. We must closely monitor the potential disconnect, the gap, between this massive flow of billions towards the infrastructure and the genuine, real and constant consumption of the end user.
Ensuring that those billions translate into invoiced value at the base of the pyramid is the mandatory task for the coming quarters. And of course , the necessary clarification should be made . This entire analysis has a purely educational purpose. Under no circumstances should it be taken as financial advice.
Conducting independent research or consulting with certified experts is and always will be the first step before any market decision. All this leaves us facing the big question, the enigma that will set the absolute pulse of the market in the coming months. Will real, everyday demand be able to match and sustain the fortunes poured into artificial intelligence, or are we witnessing in slow motion the construction of a monumental financial house of cards?
At the end of the day, the market, with its relentless coldness, will be the only one to dictate the final answer. It has been a fascinating journey to unpack this evidence piece by piece. We'll meet again in the next in- depth analysis.
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