저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마법공식(Joel Greenblatt)은 저평가 고수익 주식을 고르는 전략으로, 백테스트상 스웨덴 시장에서 2001~2016년 누적 1202%로 OMX 61.5%를 크게 앞섰다고 소개. 전략 개념: 자본수익률(ROIC)과 이익수익률(EBIT/EV)이 높은 종목을 골라 순위를 매기는 방식이며, 계산은 magic formula investing 사이트 등 스크리너로 간편히 가능. 운용 방식: 비교적 큰 기업 위주로 선택하고 1년 보유 후 매도하는 것이 원칙. 능동적 매매가 필요 없다는 점을 장점으로 강조. 실전 사례: 스웨덴 블로거 사례에서 첫해 약 17%, 올해(당시) 약 14% 수익으로 지수를 상회했다고 소개. 분산 투자: 최소 10~20개, 많게는 30개 종목에 분산하고, 한꺼번에 사지 않고 1월·2월 등 시기를 나눠 매수해 변동성을 줄이도록 권장. 결론: 시간을 적게 들이고 수익을 키우고 싶은 투자자에게 강하게 추천하며, 백테스트 결과는 실제와 다를 수 있다는 점도 언급. 특정 국내외 종목에 대한 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가는 없음.
다듬은 글
investment showers day 24 and it's Christmas Day today so I'm not gonna be spending too much time with this video either we're just gonna talk about the magic formula today and it's gonna be a little more technical than I usually do and that's why I'm showing you this first how well this formula is performing and this graph is from betrothal SC and it's comparing the Swedish stock index of excess 30 compared to the magic formula and over the period from 2001 to 2016 omx is up 61.5% compared to the magic formula at 1202 percent and this might seem a little too good to be true and of course a kind of s it's not going to be this in reality because this is a back-testing and this is perfectly executed and performed but it's performing rather well actually and the formula itself is from you can read about it in the little book that beats the market and this is a book from Joel Greenblatt and he is in a really old Wall Street guy started his own hedge fund and not back in 1985 I think so he knows what it's talking about and the idea behind the formula is to find cheap stock with high earnings yield and a high return on capital and if you want you can calculate this yourself in two steps to first look at the return on the capital and that's the Avett divided in invested capital or we have the earnings yield and the CED bit divided by enterprise value but of course nobody does this separately for each stock so you can use a couple of sites instead and there's the the magic formula investing calm and they will do this for the entire American market more or less and if you want to do this for the Swedish stocks there's Bush daughter that SC you can also screen it from there and then I guess there's something even no matter what country you are from you can find a screener for the magic formula and this is the what you see on the screen the nine points this is the the way that's supposed to to be and nobody really does it this way but you find your own way to do it but you should only invest in not too small companies rather the bigger the better more or less and you should keep the stock for one year and I think this is the the most appealing thing with a magic formula you don't need to be active you can more or less buy something and you keep it for one year no matter what happens with it you have to stick to the choice you made and after a year you sell it and then you also have to stick to that I wouldn't recommend keeping it of course you can do this if you have a stock that's handing out a great dividend and up 300% I guess you can keep that one but the form in itself is made in a way that you sell it off after a year at the Swedish site called Marcia Foreman dot SC and there's more or less a blog and you can follow this guy who's investing in this formula and you can follow his progress from this I've done this for two years the first year I it went up 17% something like that and this year so far it's up 14% and the portfolio looks right now is the liqueur diamond my chronic rotten rose mulatto home I know tech corner high-flyin chewy group and this looks really strong issues the outperforming index by far and last year I'm was very happy with the choices I made that year also I do some stock picking I get a list of 30 40 companies and they are actually sorted depending on how high it scores on the magic formula but I don't choose from the top up I kind of look at some fundamentals as well but you don't need to if you want to really pass the investment take 10 minutes of your time and keep it a year and you do this once a year then this is a good formula and you just choose the top ten you should kind of spread out this portfolio it's recommended that you do at least ten companies maybe 20 maybe even 30 companies and if you want to spread the risk even more you do not log in and buy this 20 companies at the same time you buy maybe five or six in January yeah buy five or six in February so you spread out so you get the highs and the lows of the the total market as well so this is something I'd recommend if you want don't want to be active and you don't want to make choices and you still want to make your money grow more than it can with a regular investment so overall a big recommendation from my part for the magic formula and I'll see you guys tomorrow
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