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2020년 전후 다음 금융위기 가능성을 JP모건과 레이 달리오의 전망을 중심으로 정리한 영상이다. 결론: 두 기관 모두 2020년 전후 위기를 경고하지만 시나리오가 다르며, 발언자는 분산 포트폴리오와 현금 비중 확대를 강조한다. 미국 재정적자 확대와 달러 기축통화 지위에 대한 우려가 달리오의 핵심 논리다. 달리오는 연방 재정적자가 2017년 6650억 달러에서 2019년 약 1조 달러로 늘고 이후에도 계속 증가할 것으로 보고, 금리 상승 시 자금조달 위기가 올 수 있다고 본다. 또 2020년 무렵 달러가 40% 하락할 수 있다고 주장한다. JP모건은 기업부채 증가(순부채/EBITDA 2006년 약 7배에서 현재 2.4배 수준)를 위기 진원지로 지목하고, 2020년 위기 시 미국 주식 약 20% 하락, 신흥국 주식 48% 하락, 신흥국 통화 14.4% 하락, 에너지 가격 44~45% 하락 등을 시나리오로 제시한다. 두 전망의 차이: JP모건은 위기 시 미국 국채가 헤지 수단이 된다고 보고 금리 하락을 전제하지만, 달리오는 재정 부담으로 금리가 오르고 달러가 약세를 보일 것이라 보아 정반대 시나리오를 제시한다. 발언자 본인의 대응: 신흥국(브라질, 아르헨티나, 중국) 리서치를 진행 중이며, 달러 헤지로 금 노출(5~8%)을 고려한다. 모델 포트폴리오는 현금 65%이며, 위기는 2024년에 올 것으로 본다. 주의: 영상 자체는 2018년 9월 제작물이며 이후 시점의 실제 시장 흐름과 무관하게 당시 발언 기준으로 정리한다. 발언자는 자신의 리서치 플랫폼 홍보를 함께 한다.
다듬은 글
good day fellow investors welcome to the stock market news with a long term fundamental twist the two most important pieces of information shared this week were JPMorgan coming out with a report that the next crisis will probably come in 2020 and then Ray Dalio coming out with his book on long-term debt cycles also saying that there is a big probability that the next crisis comes in 2020 so we are now in 2018 two years to go the seventh inning of this bull market cycle so what to do in this video will summarise JP Morgan's view de leus view we'll discuss what day leo has to say about what to do how to invest now what JP Morgan says about how to invest now and what am I personally doing which is more a little bit more tending towards daily so let's start with JP Morgan's views going into day Leo's views and then resolving the most important question what to do now as an investor if we are rushing into the next crisis the JPMorgan report starts by showing off this 2008 crisis the reason was of course debt however if we look at global debt that has spiked since 2008 especially in developed markets developed countries have increased their debt to GDP ratios by 41% compared to just a 12 percentage point rise in emerging markets so emerging markets are a bit more stable than developed markets and that's something also day leo is pointing out JP Morgan has a different perspective of those governments the US fiscal budget deficit so what the government spends more than gets in in 2019 is expected to be at five point four percent of the economy five point four percent in Europe if you have above three percent you are already a very very unstable country but the US government is taking advantage of being the global reserve currency and then you borrow from everyone around the world however they are also risking that position of power the position of power of the dollar from its global reserve currency perspective so that's a huge risk for just taking on more debt more about that later and now this is a beautiful chart in 2007 households as it was a real estate bubble households were leveraged the household leverage has declined since the crisis however corporate leverage has doubled since the crisis the corporate the corporate leveraged measured in net debt to EBITDA has doubled it was at one point - in 2006 seven and now it is at 2.4 so the crisis might come from the corporate environment not from the household at this time and that's exactly how crisis has come always from somewhere else another beautiful chart from JP Morgan that shows how important a crisis is because we might now think that we live well everything is going on well and that the crisis crisis didn't have an impact but global growth potential has dropped 0.3 percent per year thanks to the 2007 crisis in emerging markets to present in developed markets a little bit less 0.3 percent but that's a huge blow to the global economy so just to remember that the crisis is painful and repercussions are felt forever now a little bit on Daly oh why a crisis will happen around 2020 and what's going on the federal budget is really pushing on those deficits if you look here the current 2017 deficit was 665 billion but it is expected to hit almost 1 trillion in 2019 definitely in 2020 and then the US budget deficit is just expected to grow grow grow grow and grow in the future this is something pretty much unsustainable and if we look at the expenses of the federal budget the health care program Social Security and especially net interest interest payments on that debt if interest rates go higher there will be funding crisis in the u.s.
so the US government will not have enough money to fund all those obligations pension health care and repaying the debt so that it will have to issue more and more debt in the form of Treasuries the US people don't have enough money to buy those Treasuries so people will the US will have to ask money from around the world as it is doing now but you have to increase interest rates to do that to borrow more more and more so daily expects the Fed to print money more money to start from a lower interest rate base then it was the case in 2007 so have less possibility maneuvering possibility there and then you said that there is a high probability for for the dollar to fall in value by 40 percent by 20 and around 2020 on US government that funding concerns which is closely related to what JPM has to say let's see just on the note 4 from JP Morgan chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon we will enter the next crisis with the banking system that is stronger than it has ever been and that's correct 2007 has repaired the banking system the trigger to the next crisis will not be the same as the trigger to the last one but there will be another crisis so don't think that history will not repeat itself history rhymes but there is something different behind it in this case it is that government debt and liquidity JPM warns the total ETF assets hit five trillion globally up from just zero point eight trillion in 2008 and the ETF force the same force that pushed stock markets higher is potentially dangerous to stock markets as it will push it them lower as JPM says however the shift from active to passive and specifically the decline in active value investors reduces the ability of the market to prevent and recover from large draw downs large draw dance this is Marco : of each amazing analyst working at JPMorgan another thing that is not helping in preventing the large draw downs is less liquidity so as said by de Leo the US government will have to borrow more but US Treasury market liquidity remains roughly two-thirds below pre-crisis level levels so there is less liquidity on the market which means that all you have to somehow spur that liquidity you have to get to that money to fund your obligations if not you're going bankrupt and that's something that might raise interest rates that might make a dollar crisis the next crisis that's de leus warning JPM is an American Bank they are not allowed to say okay a dollar crisis is ahead they're just saying a crisis is coming and we'll see what is their prediction what is de leus prediction so let's start with JPM prediction next financial crisis will strike in 2020 and what are they predicting as a normal financial bank they are predicting nothing dangerous US stocks slide off about 20% jump in US corporate bond yields premiums for of about 1.15 percent above the Treasury yield so increasing the risk premium on the highly leveraged corporations 44 45% tumble in energy prices and 29 percent slump in base metals be careful oil and base metal investors two point seventy nine percentage point widening in spreads on emerging mic markets government debt so they are really pushing for emerging markets scaring people about emerging markets and 48 percent slide in emerging markets stocks of course and a fourteen point four percent drop in emerging currencies very interesting because daihlia has an opposite view so a 40 percent fall in the value of the US dollar a slow decline in stocks and longer-term grinding in value consequently and we are close to the bottom in emerging markets or at least two-thirds of the way to the bottom so we have two different views here they is focused on the dollar and how the dollar might evaluate and JP Morgan is more really focused on protecting their business with American investors because if they say it's better to diversify across the world they will lose what they have been building the last 100 years so that's very important to keep in mind who is promoting what Ray Dalio does not need any investors he doesn't take an investor so whatever he says there is not really an agenda behind it I think JP Morgan has a big agenda behind it because their profits are on the line here nevertheless let's see what each one of them says we should do and then what am i doing JP Morgan of course the perfect hedge let us sell you more Treasuries and then let us sell you more ETFs or investments when we feel that's the best time to do that because they expect that the Treasuries will fall interest rates will fall and that those will be the best hedge for a recession as the US government Bond Index returned fourteen point three percent in 2008 this is opposite of what day leo is saying because he says that interest rates will go up as the government will have to borrow more to fund all the deficits especially in a recession so here is an opposite view and one has to be careful about what to do and be hedged also on the JP Morgan hedge so take what they are doing if you're American Treasuries will protect your buying power dollars are dollars for Americans if you're not American be hedged on the hedge also if you're American be hedged on that hedge what happens if Daly is right and the dollar loses 30 percent of its value think about how to hedge that and that will end at something you can do with gold miners which are very risky but as a hedge probably will do well in Daly of Cena in de leus scenario now on Daly oh he says that if you're a passive investor really think about constantly having an all-weather portfolio diversifying so it means having a little bit of gold who always says 5 to 8 percent of portfolio risk exposure to gold can do that by physical gold by gold miners what but thinking of being diversified so that whatever happens you always just rebalance across the board there and if you read Tony Robinson's book about finances you have a great interview with Ray Dalio inside where Ray Daly explains exactly how to do that from let's say I'm not buying individual stocks on the market I'm just want to be well diversified over time and this is a very good strategy for those who are not really into buying individual stocks and thinking a lot about their portfolio the link for the book in the description below that's what I'm doing a very much more aggressive investor active investor and for us Dahlia has a simple message by when there's blood on the streets and sell when everything is good blood on the streets now there is emerging markets we are researching emerging markets we have done Brazil we have done Argentina we are now looking at China we will look at gold exposure for the protection for the dollar and then will come with an all-weather portfolio if we have time before the crisis will even look for hedges and then we have an all-weather alpha pure alpha portfolio to protect us from whatever might come out there so that's what I'm doing researching building slowly that portfolio but that takes down time but fortunately we have time and the crisis will come in 2024 now I'm 65% in cash in my model portfolio if you want to see it more in debt if you want more information about what I'm doing please check my stock market research platform where we have my stock analysis sector analysis model portfolio that you can see what am I doing with my money how am i preparing for whatever might come in the future thank you for watching don't forget to watch the most important videos from this week China stock market analysis why to invest in China and then there here is the link to raid a Leo's interview with Bloomberg be sure to watch both videos if you haven't thank you for watching see you in the next video and please comment add value to this thread by adding your valuable comments in the section below or even like if you liked the video see you in the next video
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